The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained largely subdued this week, with prices mostly stable amid limited trading activity across key regions. Ex-China HRC prices have stayed range-bound due to thin trade, while Vietnam’s import prices have been flat as buyers remained on the sidelines. Ex-India HRC prices have seen slight adjustments in the Middle East, although other destinations reported stable levels, with GCC buyers continuing to favour Indian material amid caution toward Chinese offers following the introduction of export licensing. In Turkey, flat steel prices were largely stable, though discounts were available in the domestic market. Meanwhile, the European HRC market has been effectively inactive as the holiday period across the region brought trading activity to a standstill.
Chinese HRC exports have been relatively quiet this week, with limited trading activity observed. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $465-490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt FOB, up by $5/mt week on week.
In addition, low-priced non-VAT offers are absent from the market, as they have largely disappeared since last week following the introduction of export licensing requirements for certain steel products, including HRC, which are set to be implemented from January 2026. The tradable prices for Chinese SS400 HRC have settled at $455-465/mt FOB, the same as last week. According to sources, the export market has been sluggish. Some mills have released more volumes for the Asian market at comparatively lower prices in order to complete their 2025 export commitments. However, export licenses have not yet been issued, and port conditions remain strict regarding early cargo declarations. As of December 26, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,283/mt ($466/mt), increasing by RMB 14/mt ($2/mt) since December 19, while declining by 0.06 percent compared to the previous trading day, December 25.
Import prices for HRC in Vietnam have remained largely stable this week amid subdued trading activity in China and the disappearance of low-priced, non-VAT offers from Chinese traders following the implementation of export licensing requirements. More specifically, ex-China Q235/SS400 HRC, 2,000 mm offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $478-480/mt CFR for late January-February shipment, compared to $480/mt CFR last week. At the same time, other overseas suppliers of SAE1006 HRC have kept their offers unchanged. Offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC have been voiced at $478-483/mt CFR mainly for February-March shipment, compared to $479-482/mt CFR last week. Offers for SAE1006 HRC from other Asian suppliers, including those from Indonesia and Japan have remained relatively the same as compared to last week standing at $485-490/mt CFR and $505-510/mt CFR, respectively. Besides, offers for ex-South Korea HRC have settled at $490-500/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has remained at $480-495/mt CFR Vietnam.
Indian HRC exporters have made slight price adjustments to stimulate sales in the Middle East, with moderate success, while offers to Asia and Europe have remained stable. Specifically, ex-India HRC prices have settled in the range of $465-470/mt FOB in the Middle East, slightly lower than $470-480/mt FOB a week ago. In particular, ex-India HRC prices have settled at $490-495/mt CFR, down by $495-500/mt CFR from last week. Besides, among the limited trades reported during the week was a contract for delivery of 15,000 mt to Oman by an eastern India-based mill at $465/mt FOB, though this deal has not been confirmed by the time of publication. Similarly, another trade has been concluded for 30,000 mt to the UAE at $468-470/mt FOB, which translates to around $485/mt CFR UAE. Meanwhile, offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $475-480/mt CFR, compared to $478-483/mt CFR last week. Indicative offers from India in Europe have remained at $520-525/mt FOB, mainly the same as last week. As a result, although offers to the Middle East have declined, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has remained at $455-520/mt FOB, given that the lower end of the range corresponds to offers in Vietnam, while the higher end corresponds to offers in Europe.
In Turkey, the domestic HRC prices have remained at $555-565/mt ex-works for February shipments, while customers consider $5-10/mt discounts possible for sizeable orders. The business activity locally has been rather slow as the year nears the end and most of the buyers are not eager to purchase excessive volumes. Suppliers, however, have been feeling increasing pressure since the export sales have been slow along with the weak domestic trade. The prices have been maintained due to still high Chinese prices and import scrap in Turkey. Ex-China import HRC offers in Turkey have been at $500-502/mt CFR from the key suppliers and for the re-rolling breakdowns with no demand seen. Egypt is currently out of the market, aiming to return with $565-570/mt CFR minimum in early January, sources reported. A non-sanctioned Russian mill has closed HRC sales for February shipments to Turkey at $495/mt CFR.
All three Russian HRC producers have been active on exports with the sanctioned material being sold at $440-445/mt FOB Black Sea and $425-440/mt FOB Baltic Sea. The buyers from MENA region, such as Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, etc, are being targeted with the CFR offers standing at $470-480/mt depending on the seller. The non-sanctioned mill, as mentioned above, is now done with February shipment sales with most of the volume directed to Turkey at $485-495/mt CFR over the past couple of weeks, translating to around $465-470/mt FOB Black Sea. In the local market, the mills’ HRC offers for the current month of production are still at RUB 57,000-58,000/mt or around $600-610/mt CPT according to $1 = RUB 79. The 8 mm HRS offers from the producers’ side have remained at RUB 52,000-53,000/mt CPT or around $550-560/mt CPT. The ex-warehouse HRS prices have been reported at RUB 54,000/mt or $570/mt, but those are expected to rise by at least RUB 1,000/mt ($10/mt) in January after the increase of the VAT from 20 to 22 percent.
In North Africa, the local HRC prices have been stable in Algeria and Egypt – DZD 87,000/mt ($615/mt) ex-works and EGP 35,000/mt (645/mt) ex-works, both for January deliveries. The domestic demand for HRC in these countries is at moderate levels, but the buyers particularly from Egypt have been reporting certain issues with size availability and delayed deliveries. As a result, despite the valid safeguard for HRC in Egypt, some of the import HRC prices might be still workable, especially the ones from Russia. The sanctioned ex-Russia HRC mills have been offering within $470-480/mt CFR for January-February shipments and, according to customers, if $5-10/mt discounts are provided, there might be some demand. Ex-China HRC prices in Egypt have been reported at $500-505/mt CFR, while in Morocco the offers have been indicated at $510-515/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned.
In the GCC, this week buying interest has remained visible from Emirati and Omani buyers, with demand largely shifting toward Indian-origin material. Chinese offers, despite recent price reductions, have continued to face cautious reception due to ongoing export license constraints. Earlier this week, Indian suppliers concluded several transactions totaling around 30,000 mt to the UAE and 15,000 mt to Oman for January shipment at $468-470/mt FOB and $465/mt FOB, respectively, equivalent to roughly $490-495/mt CFR to the GCC. As a result, Indian offer levels have softened slightly and are now broadly aligned with concluded deals, easing from $490-505/mt CFR to around $490-495/mt CFR for January-February shipments to the UAE. Chinese suppliers have also reduced offer indications to $485-495/mt CFR for late January and February shipments, down from $490-505/mt CFR previously. However, some mills continue to quote higher levels of $500-505/mt CFR, mainly due to export license limitations and restricted availability, though these prices have not been considered workable by UAE buyers. Meanwhile, Japanese mills have kept February shipment prices largely unchanged at $485-490/mt CFR. Although no fresh transactions have been reported, market participants suggest that UAE buying interest could emerge in the near term.
The EU HRC market has been largely inactive this week due to the holiday period across the region. Market participants indicated that virtually no one will be active next week, with trading expected to resume no earlier than the second week of January.