In the last week of February, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has showed a fragmented picture, with sentiment and activity levels varying widely by region. In Asia, China’s export trade has been slow to regain momentum after the Lunar New Year holiday, as pessimism over demand prospects has outweighed the limited pockets of optimism. Buyers have remained cautious, and although some mills attempted to test higher offers, overall trading activity has remained restrained. Vietnam’s import market has reflected a similar tone, staying largely quiet following the Tet holiday. Purchasing activity has remained subdued, with import prices assessed as stable to slightly lower amid thin trading and an absence of confirmed transactions at newly quoted levels. Meanwhile, ex-India HRC prices have remained firm, supported by mills’ resistance to discounting: however, demand across key export outlets has remained sluggish and buyers have showed limited appetite for large-volume bookings, while pushing for additional discounts. Meanwhile, Turkey’s domestic HRC prices have found support from firmer ex-China offers and a more positive sentiment in the EU market. In the GCC, buying activity has continued on a selective basis, with customers pushing back against higher offer levels and focusing only on essential requirements rather than restocking aggressively. In the meantime, in Europe, mills have continued to target higher offers for May delivery, citing tightening supply expectations and efforts to restore margins. Import conditions have remained complex due to trade measures and safeguard quotas, yet some deals for Middle Eastern-origin HRC have been reported, indicating that competitive offers could still find a place in the market.
The Chinese HRC market has resumed work after its long holiday which started on February 17. However, even though it is unusual for the start of a post-holiday period, HRC futures prices have already posted slight declines amid weak trading and expectations for any significant improvement to be seen only in March. More specifically, several large Chinese HRC mills that have returned to work have kept offers stable at around $470-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $475/mt FOB, the same as two weeks ago. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $460-470/mt FOB, down by $5/mt on the lower end of the range over the past two weeks, as some traders have decided to go lower to attract buyers. Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at around $500/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier, the same as last week, but most customers have still been reporting workable price levels at $490-495/mt CFR UAE. In addition, Chinese Q195 HRC offers through traders to Turkey have been estimated at $505-510/mt CFR, versus $498-503/mt CFR at the beginning of the week. As of February 27, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,215/mt ($464/mt), decreasing by RMB 7/my ($1/mt) since February 13, while decreasing by 0.25 percent compared to the previous trading day, February 26.
Vietnam’s HRC import market has remained very quiet this week, with purchasing activity and underlying demand subdued following the return from the Tet holiday. Import prices have generally ranged from stable to slightly lower, reflecting cautious sentiment and limited buying interest. Market participants have largely stayed on the sidelines, monitoring developments rather than committing to purchases of new cargoes. As a result, price movement has been minimal, and no transactions have been confirmed at the newly voiced offer levels. Specifically, rare offers for ex-China Q235 and Q195 grade coils for pipe makers have been heard in the market, with indicative prices standing at $485/mt CFR and $475/mt CFR, respectively. Furthermore, the SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $493-500/mt CFR, down by $2/mt on the lower end of the range over the past two weeks. The lower end of the range corresponds to offers for SAE1006/SS400 HRC to Vietnamese re-rollers which have been reported at $493-495/mt CFR for ex-India cargoes for late March-early April shipment, compared to $500-502/mt CFR two weeks ago. However, buyer indications have been heard at lower levels of $490/mt CFR, reflecting cautious sentiments.
Although ex-India HRC have remained rather stable over the past week, lower offer prices have started to appear in some trade destinations this week, as buyers have been pushing for additional discounts due to slow demand. As a result, while ex-India offers in the Middle East are still reported in the range of $495-500/mt FOB, or around $520-525/mt CFR UAE, the same as last week, a deal for around 30,000 mt is reported to have been signed at $515/mt CFR UAE, which translates to around $490/mt FOB, In the meantime, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare, with indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe reported at $620-625/mt CFR, compared to $610-625/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $565-570/mt FOB, up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. Market sources pointed to restricted EU quota availability and ongoing CBAM-related pressure as key structural headwinds, compounded by strong competition from other supplying regions. Many participants believe that the current offer levels reflect mills’ attempts to probe the market direction rather than secure substantial volumes in actual transactions. Besides, offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC have been heard at $495/mt CFR, the same as two weeks ago or at around $475/mt FOB, while bids have been reported at around $490/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $475-570/mt FOB, compared to $495-570/mt FOB last week.
HRC prices in Turkey have remained stable at the levels attempted during the absence of China and the start of Ramadan. Turkish producers are now offering at $580-600/mt ex-works base for April-May deliveries, with medium-sized volumes sold at around $575-580/mt ex-works. As regards exports, Turkish mills are targeting around $580-600/mt FOB, with sales of around 40,000-50,000 mt rumored to have been closed at the midpoint to the southern part of the EU. Import offers are heard mainly from China, with prices up from $495-505/mt CFR to $510-515/mt CFR in the most recent levels, with cargoes available for April-May shipments. Russian mills are in market with $480/mt CFR for sanctioned material and at $515-520/mt CFR for non-sanctioned material, for March and April shipments. Egypt and Malaysia are currently out of the market, but are expected to return next week with offer prices no lower than $580-590/mt CFR for May shipment.
In the GCC, HRC buying activity has remained selective this week, as unchanged Chinese prices following the holiday period and seasonally slower Ramadan demand have limited fresh commitments, with buyers continuing to resist higher offers. Toward the end of last week, in the absence of active Chinese supply, Indian suppliers concluded sales of two cargoes to the UAE, with one larger volume of around 30,000-40,000 mt at $510/mt CFR and another smaller cargo at $515/mt CFR, both for end-of-March shipment. Although Indian offers have eased by around $10/mt week on week to $510-525/mt CFR, most suppliers continue to indicate official offers at the upper end for March shipment. Meanwhile, Chinese SS400 offers have remained stable at $490-500/mt CFR UAE for March-April shipments, while Russian offers have been reported at $470-480/mt CFR for the same period with limited fresh activity. Japanese suppliers have returned to the market for April shipment, with indicative levels around $525/mt CFR, though these prices are currently facing resistance from GCC buyers.
European HRC trading sentiments have showed some improvement over the past week, especially in northern Europe, with market participants reporting a modest rebound in activity following a quieter start to the year. Specifically, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for May delivery, are still estimated at €685-700/mt ex-works, the same as last week. According to sources, trade activity has improved to some extent this week, with service centres concluding several large-tonnage purchases. The tradable price level has settled at €650-660/mt ex-works. In Italy, offers from mills are estimated at €680/mt ex-works, mainly for April delivery, compared to €660-680/mt ex-works last week, though mills have been targeting higher offers for May delivery at around €700/mt ex-works, according to sources. Meanwhile, the tradable price level is estimated at €650-670/mt ex-works, versus €640-650/mt ex-works last week.
As for the import segment, market participants noted that negotiations have been increasingly influenced by delivery lead times, as well as by CBAM-related and safeguard duty considerations, which have continued to shape buying strategies across the region. Indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €525-565/mt CFR, the same as last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-India HRC offers at $620-625/mt CFR, which translates to €525-530/mt CFR southern Europe. Furthermore, according to sources, following offers for ex-Saudi Arabia HRC at around €540-550/mt CFR southern Europe, excluding CBAM costs, a deal for around 40,000 mt is reported to have been signed at €540/mt CFR Spain, though this information has not been officially confirmed by the time of publication. According to sources, Turkish suppliers have continued to succeed in negotiations with European buyers, having sold a large volume of HRC at around €570-580/mt CFR southern Europe for the third quarter quota period. At the same time, HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €630-670/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €10-20/mt week on week. An offer for ex-Indonesia HRC has been reported at €670/mt DDP Spain this week. Besides, according to sources, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced through traders at about €630-650/mt DDP Spain, the same as last week. In addition, indicative offers for ex-Saudi Arabia, ex-North Africa and ex-Asia HRC have this week been estimated €640-660/mt DDP southern Europe, through traders.