The global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market has showed a mixed but generally firm trend this week, as rising costs and geopolitical risks supported prices, while trading activity remained subdued across most regions. In Asia, ex-China HRC prices from mills have remained stable, reflecting limited trading activity and increasing pressure from higher freight costs. In Vietnam, import activity nearly stalled, as higher offers failed to stimulate buying interest, with buyers resisting elevated price levels. A similar sentiment has been observed in Pakistan, where import prices have edged up slightly, but trading has slowed ahead of the Eid holidays, further dampening demand. India’s export market has remained relatively firm, supported by rising production costs. However, trading activity was negatively impacted by growing risks in the Middle East, which disrupted traditional trade flows and increased uncertainty among buyers. In Turkey, domestic HRC prices have continued to rise, driven largely by expectations linked to the ongoing conflict, although real demand has lagged behind the upward price movement. Across the GCC, steel trade has faced mounting uncertainty as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has begun to reshape logistics and trade routes, adding further complexity and cost pressures to the market. Meanwhile, in Europe, the HRC price outlook has strengthened, supported by persistently tight import availability. Limited inflows allowed domestic producers to push prices higher, even as overall demand has remained relatively cautious.
Ex-China HRC prices have remained largely stable from mills over the past week, with offers from major mills hovering within a relatively narrow range despite ongoing volatility in freight rates and geopolitical uncertainties. While some upward pressure has been observed in certain destinations due to rising freight costs linked to the escalation of the war in the Middle East, overall trading activity has been limited, with mills maintaining firm offer levels and continuing to refrain from issuing quotations to some regions, particularly the Gulf, amid unclear shipping and insurance conditions. More specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $480-490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $485/mt FOB, the same as last week. Besides, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced at around $480/mt CFR, compared to $475-480/mt FOB last weekOffers from Chinese traders have been estimated at $480-490/mt FOB, versus $475-490/mt FOB last week. As of March 19, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange were standing at RMB 3,302/mt ($478.5/mt), increasing by RMB 27/mt ($3.9/mt) or 0.8 percent since March 12.
Vietnam’s HRC import market has remained largely subdued over the past week, with trading activity limited and buyers staying on the sidelines amid weak demand. Despite a general upward trend in offers from key suppliers, including China, India and other regional exporters, most Vietnamese customers have not been in a hurry to sign new deals at the newly indicated price levels. Market participants noted that cautious sentiment has continued to weigh on purchasing interest, resulting in minimal price movement overall. The the indicative offers for ex-China Q235 HRC reported at $495-505/mt CFR for April shipment, versus $485-490/mt CFR last week. The SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $500-510/mt CFR from $493-500/mt CFR last week, mainly following higher offers for ex-India HRC. Specifically, offers for SAE1006 HRC to Vietnamese re-rollers have been reported at $510/mt CFR and above for ex-India May shipment cargoes, versus $500-502/mt CFR last week. According to sources, talk about two bookings of ex-India HRC signed in Vietnam at around $500-510/mt CFR levels last week has been circulating in the market, though this information has not been confirmed by the time of publication. Besides, offers for ex-Indonesia SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at around $525/mt CFR, up by $10/mt week on week, while offers for ex-Japan coils have been voiced at $530/mt CFR, up by $15-20/mt since last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have risen over the past week, with major mills pushing for higher levels on the back of increasing energy costs and elevated prices of imported raw materials. In particular, ex-India HRC offers have been ‘notionally’ increased to $520-530/mt FOB for the Middle East, compared to $490-500/mt FOB a week ago, even though most large mills are heard not to be submitting offers in this region. Meanwhile, ex-India HRC offers for Europe have settled at $640-650/mt CFR, up by around $25/mt week on week, which translates to around $590-600/mt FOB, versus $570/mt FOB last week. Offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at around $510/mt CFR level this week for May shipment, up by $10/mt, but the market has been preparing for further hikes, according to sources. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $490-590/mt FOB, versus $480-570/mt FOB last week.
Turkish HRC producers have once again increased their domestic offers and the trend is once again based on higher production costs and war-related expectations and risky imports from Asia, along with relatively high workable HRC prices in the EU market. The upper end of the range for the domestic HRC is at $630/mt ex-works, up $10/mt over the week. Most other suppliers are at $620-625/mt ex-works, up $10-15/mt from the previous indications. The level of $615/mt ex-works is considered possible for large volumes and only from a few mills. Regarding exports, Turkey is offering at $605-615/mt FOB in official offers for May-June shipments. Ex-China base HRC offers in Turkey have remained mainly stable at $535-545/mt CFR depending on the supplier. The official price targets for non-sanctioned ex-Russia HRC have been reported at $545/mt CFR for the remaining lots for May shipments, up from sales in the range of $530-540/mt CFR reported last week.
European HRC prices have edged up slightly again over the past week, supported by limited availability and firmer domestic offers. At the same time, market participants have been discussing a potential further price increase by leading producer ArcelorMittal, with expectations of at least a €20/mt hike in the next round of sales to around €750/mt ex-works or €770/mt delivered. Most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for May delivery, have been estimated at €700-735/mt ex-works, against €700-710/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, the tradable price levels have settled at €700-720/mt ex-works, versus €685-700/mt ex-works last week. In Italy, offers from mills are estimated at €695-700/mt ex-works for May and June delivery, compared to €685-700/mt ex-works last week. Meanwhile, the tradable price level is estimated at €685-690/mt ex-works for delivery in May, up by €5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. Meanwhile, import activity has remained largely stalled, with only a handful of offers heard, as CBAM-related uncertainty, safeguard measures and ongoing geopolitical tensions due to the war in the Middle East continue to complicate trade flows. Indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €560-640/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to ex-India HRC offers, up from €525-530/mt CFR last week. In the meantime, according to sources, following a deal for around 25,000 mt of ex-Algeria HRC signed few weeks ago at €640/mt CFR, excluding CBAM, offers for ex-Algeria HRC through traders in northern Europe have been reported at around €670-690/mt CFR, excluding CBAM.