European HRC prices have edged up slightly again over the past week, supported by limited availability and firmer domestic offers. At the same time, market participants have been discussing a potential further price increase by leading producer ArcelorMittal, with expectations of at least a €20/mt hike in the next round of sales. Meanwhile, import activity has remained largely stalled, with only a handful of offers heard, as CBAM-related uncertainty, safeguard measures and ongoing geopolitical tensions due to the war in the Middle East continue to complicate trade flows.
Notably, this week market insiders have begun to circulate unconfirmed reports of a potential price increase by leading HRC producer ArcelorMittal, with its June delivery offers indicated at around €750/mt ex-works or €770/mt delivered, up by €20/mt since mid-February. While this information has not been officially confirmed so far, many market participants consider it plausible given the current tightness in imports, which is providing local mills with an opportunity to push domestic prices higher.
At the same time, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for May delivery, have been estimated at €700-735/mt ex-works, against €700-710/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, the tradable price levels have settled at €700-720/mt ex-works, versus €685-700/mt ex-works last week.
In Italy, offers from mills are estimated at €695-700/mt ex-works for May and June delivery, compared to €685-700/mt ex-works last week. Meanwhile, the tradable price level is estimated at €685-690/mt ex-works for delivery in May, up by €5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
The import market has continued to show little activity, as only a limited number of fresh offers were reported by industry sources. Indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €560-600/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to ex-India HRC offers, up from €525-530/mt CFR last week. Indicative offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced at around €580-600/mt CFR, duty paid, but excluding CBAM costs.
In the meantime, according to sources, following a deal for around 25,000 mt of ex-Algeria HRC signed few weeks ago at €640/mt CFR, excluding CBAM, offers for ex-Algeria HRC through traders in northern Europe have been reported at around €670-690/mt CFR, excluding CBAM.
“From the first of July, Algeria will suffer. Their quota will be reduced a lot,” a local trader said.
Market sentiment has come under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the EU’s revised safeguard regime, particularly regarding the distribution of country-specific quotas. At the same time, limited visibility on the financial impact of CBAM has led many buyers to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see stance.
Further complicating the situation, logistical challenges have intensified due to security risks in the Middle East. As a result, a significant number of vessels carrying cargo from Asia to Europe have been forced to divert via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by approximately two weeks and reducing the availability of material for near-term delivery.
