In the first week of the year, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained largely stable, with limited trading activity and cautious sentiment prevailing across most regions. Ex-China HRC prices have remained relatively stable or have been showing only a slight upward bias, though exporters have continued to face muted demand and growing competition from Asian suppliers. Despite this, some Asian producers attempted modest price increases, supported by improving local market conditions. Specifically, in India, HRC mills sought slight export price rises, encouraged by recent domestic price increases and firmer local demand. A similar trend has been observed in Vietnam, where Hoa Phat has announced a small HRC price hike after low-priced import offers largely disappeared. Even so, Vietnam’s import demand has remained subdued, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach despite firmer price signals. In Turkey, import HRC offers have increased slightly despite weak demand and marginally softer domestic prices, reflecting higher replacement costs rather than any improvement in consumption, while in the UAE the market has continued restocking activity, but with less urgency than in previous weeks, as the price gap between imports and local material narrowed. In Europe, the HRC market has showed little sign of recovery following the holiday period. Prices have remained mostly stable, supported by the mills’ discipline, but demand has remained lacklustre and buyers have been reluctant to commit to new volumes.
In the Chinese HRC export market, prices from both mills and traders have remained relatively stable, while trade activity has continued to hover near zero following the New Year holidays. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. Offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $465-470/mt FOB, the same as last week, while, according to sources, their business activity is still paused as most of these mills had previously been selling material without VAT. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers are facing tighter competition from other Asian exporters across all major destinations. Tradable prices for Chinese SS400 HRC have settled at $460-470/mt FOB, the same as last week.
Indian HRC suppliers have started to make small upward price attempts in key export destinations such as Vietnam and the Middle East. More specifically, ex-India HRC prices have increased by $5/mt over the past week reaching $470-475/mt FOB in the Middle East, which translates to around $495-500/mt CFR UAE, up by $5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, following several deals for around 60,000 mt signed at $477-482/mt CFR Vietnam last week, this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $485-490/mt CFR levels, up by $5-10/mt CFR week on week, which translates to around $465-470/mt FOB. However, these increases have so far failed to elicit any response, as buyers remain cautious amid the prevailing market uncertainties. Meanwhile, export price sentiment has also improved, supported by faster-rising domestic prices in India and tighter supply conditions. In the meantime, indicative offers in Europe have been voiced at $520-525/mt FOB, or around $570-575/mt CFR, the same as before the holidays. Furthermore, according to sources, no activity has been reported from Europe, also due to uncertainties stemming from the now-effective carbon tax on imports (CBAM). As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $465-520/mt FOB, up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range given higher offers reported in Vietnam, while the higher end corresponds to indicative offers in Europe.
In Vietnam, local HRC producer Hoa Phat Group announced its new prices for February and March delivery, increasing them by around $6/mt month on month to VND 13,390-13,420/kg ($510-511/mt) CIF, where the lower end of the range corresponds to prices in northern and central Vietnam, while the higher price is found in the south. The decision has been mainly attributed to the disappearance of cheap non-VAT Chinese HRC offers, while the demand in the country has remained slow and is in line with market sources’ expectations.
Meanwhile, import prices for HRC in Vietnam have remained largely stable, with only a slight upward bias seen this week, as Indian sellers aimed to increase their offers. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has moved to $488-490/mt CFR, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range since the beginning of the week and compared to $477-490/mt CFR last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to ex-India HRC offers.
In Turkey, domestic HRC prices have settled at $555-560/mt and up to $565/mt ex-works base, mainly for March shipment, while demand is reported to be slow. Export offers are mainly at $540-545/mt FOB with European buyers targeted, while the CBAM uncertainties still persist.
Import offers from China are at $510-512/mt CFR, up by around $10/mt from earlier this week, for Q195 grade of 3 mm and higher, with cargoes for March shipments. HRC price indications from Taiwan and Malaysia have been reported at $510-515/mt and $545-550/mt CFR for March shipments, respectively. In addition, a non-sanctioned Russian supplier has increased its HRC offers for the new round of sales to $510-515/mt CFR, versus deals closed for February shipments mainly at $485-495/mt CFR.
In the UAE, import activity has continued this week, although Emirati buyers have shifted toward a safer and more selective purchasing approach as HRC offer levels have converged following the exit of non-VAT Chinese suppliers. With prices now largely aligned across origins, buyers have focused on securing material from more reliable and convenient suppliers, rather than chasing small price differences, while continuing to purchase only for stock requirements. As a result, UAE buyers purchased around 15,000 mt of HRC from Japan at $490/mt CFR for March shipment, while Japanese offers to the UAE have remained at $490-495/mt CFR. Another deal has been reported from Indian suppliers, involving approximately 30,000 mt of HRC sold at $490-495/mt CFR to the UAE for February shipment, with shipment expected shortly. Meanwhile, several Indian suppliers have begun negotiating new deals at around $500/mt CFR, aiming for a modest price increase, although most offers in the market continue to be heard at $490-495/mt CFR. By contrast, Chinese suppliers have seen a noticeable decline in interest following the withdrawal of non-VAT traders, with offers remaining unchanged week on week at $490-505/mt CFR to the UAE for March shipment. In addition, a Taiwanese supplier has been heard in the market this week at $495-500/mt CFR to the UAE for early March shipment.
The European HRC market has shown little sign of recovery following the holiday slowdown, although trading activity remains largely absent. At the same time, no mills so far have followed ArcelorMittal’s move to raise HRC offers by €20/mt across Europe ahead of the holidays. More specifically, offers from most mills in northern Europe have been voiced not higher than €650/mt ex-works for February delivery, with only offers from ArcelorMittal reported at €670/mt CFR. Besides, the tradable price level has been estimated at €630-635/mt ex-works. Indicative prices from Italian mills have been estimated at €620-640/mt ex-works for January and February delivery, while workable local HRC prices in Italy have been assessed at €610-630/mt ex-works, with trade activity estimated at even lower levels than in the north. Meanwhile, the import HRC market has been effectively inactive this week, with buyers citing uncertainty surrounding CBAM regulations and their practical implementation. The indicative prices are estimated at €490-565/mt CFR, versus $485-535/mt before the holidays, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €600-630/mt levels, depending on the supplier.