The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has entered February with cautious optimism, supported by selective supply tightness and improving trade flows, though weak underlying demand in several regions has continued to cap the upside potential. Ex-China HRC export prices have remained largely unchanged, as subdued domestic demand and weaker futures prices have continued to weigh on market sentiment, limiting sellers’ ability to push for higher levels. However, in Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s domestic HRC market has moved modestly higher, with Hoa Phat announcing slight price increases, citing rising import costs, while Formosa has followed suit, aligning its local offers with higher input costs, reinforcing the upward bias in the domestic market. Meanwhile, Indian HRC export prices have edged up slightly, though overseas sales remained constrained by firm domestic demand and tight supply, which have encouraged producers to prioritize local deliveries. In the Middle East, import demand for HRC in the GCC has shown signs of recovery, but buyers have remained resistant to higher offers, resulting in protracted negotiations. Turkish HRC export prices have strengthened on the back of more active sales to Europe, while attempts to lift domestic prices have remained largely indicative amid persistently quiet local demand. Meanwhile, the EU’s domestic HRC market has been mostly stable, with market participants closely monitoring the increasing import volumes from Turkey.
Ex-China HRC export prices have remained mostly stable over the past week, with limited movement seen across key destinations. While large mills have maintained offer levels and traders have kept prices unchanged, buying interest remains subdued, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, as weaker domestic prices and declining futures prices have weighed on market sentiments.
Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $475-480/mt FOB, compared to $470-485/mt FOB last week, but with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. However, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt CFR, versus $468-475/mt CFR last week, while their business activity has remained slow. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $465-470/mt FOB, the same as last week. Ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam are still rare due to the absence of non-VAT offers, though offers with VAT for April shipment have been voiced at $495/mt CFR Vietnam this week, according to sources. Meanwhile, Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at around $500-510/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier, the same as last week, but most customers have still been reporting workable price levels at $490-495/mt CFR UAE. In addition, Chinese Q195 HRC offers through traders to Turkey have been estimated at $500-505/mt CFR for March shipment, the same as last week. As of February 6, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,251/mt ($467/mt), decreasing by RMB 37/mt ($5.3/mt) since January 30, while decreasing by 0.43 percent compared to the previous trading day, February 5.
In Vietnam, on February 2, Vietnamese HRC producer Hoa Phat Group announced its new prices for March and April delivery, increasing them by around $8-9/mt month on month. The decision has been mainly attributed to the absence of offers for cheap non-VAT HRC from China, while other foreign suppliers have been more bullish despite the slow demand in Vietnam. Specifically, Hoa Phat’s prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC have been announced at VND 13,490-13,520/kg ($518-520/mt) CIF, where the lower end of the range corresponds to prices in northern and central Vietnam, while the higher price is found in the south. Thus, the current price is around $8-9/mt lower than last month.
Furthermore, after the announcement at the beginning of the week by Hoa Phat Group of new local HRC offers at slightly higher levels, this week FHS has also increased its new prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC, by around $8/mt month on month, to $512/mt CIF for orders for a minimum of 20,000 mt, while offers for smaller orders of 2,000-5,000 mt and below have settled at around VND 13,615/kg, which translates to around $524/mt CIF, or up by $12/mt since mid-January. Meanwhile, the most competitive offers for SAE1006/SS400 HRC have been voiced from Indian suppliers at $495-500/mt CFR for April shipment, compared to deal prices at $487-492/mt CFR a few weeks ago, though most bids are still voiced at $490-495/mt CFR levels. Besides, offers for ex-Japan and ex-South Korea HRC have been voiced at $500-505/mt CFR and $510-515/mt CFR, respectively. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as at the beginning of this week.
Indian HRC export activity has been limited over the past week, with prices mainly stable or showing a slight increase, supported by strong domestic demand, firm local prices and tight supply conditions. Most mills have continued to prioritize domestic sales and have showed little willingness to adjust their export offers, as domestic margin realizations have continued to outperform export returns.
More specifically, ex-India HRC offers have been reported in the range of $475-480/mt FOB in the Middle East, or around $495-505/mt CFR, the same as last week, though a few bids received from UAE-based customers have been voiced in the range of $465-470/mt FOB, but sellers are unwilling to make even minor adjustments against the backdrop of tight supplies and good local sales.
Furthermore, this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $493-500/mt CFR, compared to $487-490/mt CFR at the beginning of last week, which translates to around $473-480/mt FOB. At the same time, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare. Indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been voiced at $600/mt CFR and above, the same as at the end of last week, but up by $30/mt since the beginning of last week, which translates to around $550/mt FOB. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $475-550/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range since the end of last week, and compared to $470-520/mt FOB at the beginning of last week.
In Turkey, some HRC producers have attempted to increase their domestic prices on the back of decent export demand, still high scrap prices, and the lack of aggressive HRC import prices. However, local demand for HRC in Turkey is not supportive, and so workable price levels are unlikely to increase in the near term. One Turkish mill has been targeting $600/mt ex-works, up from $560-570/mt ex-works earlier. Other producers, however, have remained at more realistic levels of $565-570/mt ex-works and only some list prices have been reported at $575/mt ex-works. For export, the offer levels from Turkey are now at $560-570/mt FOB with slight discounts applicable, while the latest deals have been closed at $560-568/mt FOB. Some market sources evaluate the total volume of sales over the past couple of weeks at a minimum of 200,000-250,000 mt. In the import segment, China has remained largely at $495-505/mt CFR for end-of-March and April shipments, with no fresh deals reported. Egypt and Malaysia are reportedly out of the market, while the sanctioned Russian mills are offering at $470-480/mt CFR for February-March shipments and the non-sanctioned one is expected to announce $500-505/mt CFR for shipments in April.
Russian HRC mills remain present in the export markets, even though the currency exchange rate is not favorable for overseas sales. All three producers are active and are offering for February-March (sanctioned mills) and April (non-sanctioned mill) shipment. In the Black Sea region, the sanctioned HRC is offered at $440/mt FOB, which translates to $470-485/mt CFR MENA region depending on the market and the order size. The non-sanctioned mill is mulling its offers for April shipments, having closed March shipments to Turkey at $495-510/mt CFR. The new indications, as mentioned earlier, are expected at $500-505/mt CFR or around $475-480/mt FOB. In the Baltic region, the supplier is offering at $430-435/mt FOB or around $480/mt CFR MENA. The latest deals have been reported for 30,000 mt in line with the mill’s offer. Locally, Russian mills are about to announce new offers for flat steel for February production, targeting a modest price increase. Consumption is at low levels with the high interest rate remaining the main issue affecting business activities.
In North Africa, Egypt is mainly focused on domestic sales where prices have remained at EGP 35,000/mt ($655/mt) ex-works, whereas the workable export prices are nowhere near these levels. The latest export prices from Egypt have been reported at $550/mt FOB in sales to Turkey and currently buyers would expect levels close to $560/mt FOB or even slightly above. In Algeria, the indicative HRC export offers are at $570-580/mt FOB for the EU. The latest deals for 20,000-30,000 mt were closed in mid-January at €540/mt CFR, while current offers are available through traders at €615-620/mt DDP.
In the GCC, this week HRC import activity showed a clearer pickup in enquiries and bookings, although buyers continued to cap prices and only closed deals at levels below suppliers’ initial targets. Toward the end of last week, buyers in Saudi Arabia secured ex-China A36 material at around $500/mt CFR for March shipment, while in the United Arab Emirates re-rollers issued enquiries totaling 25,000-30,000 mt at $485-490/mt CFR, which have not yet turned into confirmed sales. Overall, China has kept offers broadly unchanged at $495-510/mt CFR for March shipment, remaining mostly above recent deal levels. At the same time, India has slowed its presence in the region, as strong domestic demand has lifted acceptable prices at home, with some mills stepping back from the GCC market and others maintaining offers at $495-505/mt CFR for March shipment without concluding fresh deals. By contrast, Russia has continued to offer at $470-480/mt CFR for March shipment, with a deal reported last week for 35,000-40,000 mt to the UAE at about $470/mt CFR for April shipment. Meanwhile, Japan has remained quiet, as March shipment volumes are understood to be sold out, and, while earlier offers were heard at $495-500/mt CFR, current April shipment talks have stalled, with sellers targeting around $510/mt CFR and buyers seeking $500-505/mt CFR.
The EU hot rolled coil market has remained largely stable over the past week, with mills continuing to hold their offer levels unchanged despite limited improvement in tradable prices, while import dynamics, particularly sizable bookings of ex-Turkey material, have attracted the attention of the market. Specifically, the target prices for April delivery from other mills in northern Europe have remained at €670-680/mt ex-works, the same as last week. However, the tradable price levels are still estimated at €640-650/mt ex-works, mainly the same as last week. In Italy, mills have been targeting €650-660/mt for mainly April delivery, mostly the same as last week, though, according to sources, the mills have also been aiming to increase their offers to €670-680/mt ex-works levels. However, the tradable price level is estimated at €640-645/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, with several deals reported to have been signed for around 1,000 mt in total at the abovementioned level for late March-early April delivery.
Meanwhile, in the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €510-547/mt CFR, versus €495-540/mt CFR last week. Notably, while offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been estimated at €520-530/mt CFR, duty included, and around €630/mt DDP including CBAM costs, market sources report that substantial volumes of ex-Turkey HRC have been booked since mid-January. In particular, the total volumes booked are estimated at 230,000-250,000 mt, while some sources suggest figures exceeding 300,000 mt - levels widely regarded by market insiders as being too high given the associated EU quota risks. The deal prices in the transactions were reported at $548-555/mt FOB around two to three weeks ago, while offers voiced during last week and this week have increased to $560-568/mt FOB. These levels translate to approximately €520-525/mt CFR, duty included. Furthermore, according to sources, several deals for smaller volumes or around 5,000-10,000 mt have been signed for ex-Turkey HRC in Spain through traders at €615-630/mt DDP. In addition, most offers for ex-Asia HRC on DDP basis, including CBAM, through traders have been voiced at €620/mt DDP, the same as last week, while offers for ex-Algeria HRC have settled at €615-620/mt DDP.