The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained under downward pressure in the past week, with Asian price trends and weakening demand in export destinations setting the tone for a cautious outlook in the weeks ahead. In China, HRC export prices have fallen further as futures prices have continued to decline and non-VAT traders have undercut mills with lower-priced offers. Indian HRC exporters have also faced mounting pressure, with prices easing in the main trade destination due to intensifying competition. In Vietnam, Formosa Ha Tinh has revised its HRC offers downward as market sentiment has remained pessimistic and regional buyers have hesitated to restock in a falling market. Meanwhile, Turkey’s domestic HRC market has held stable, supported by moderate sales activity, while the most attractive import offers have continued to come from China and Russia. In the UAE, buying interest in import HRC has persisted, with traders taking advantage of falling Chinese prices. In contrast, European HRC mills have persisted with attempts to lift prices, but buyers have remained cautious amid uncertainty related to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), volatile import pricing, and overall weak end-user demand.
Ex-China HRC prices have been corrected down once again this week, with market sentiment remaining weak amid further declines in HRC futures prices. Besides, additional downward pressure has come from newly returned non-VAT traders, whose offers were heard at least $40/mt lower than those from big Chinese mills, further weighing on market confidence. The price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has settled at $465-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, mainly for December shipment, down by $5/mt since the beginning of last week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $460-465/mt CFR, compared to 465-470/mt CFR last week. At the same time, offers from most Chinese traders have been voiced at $460-465/mt FOB, down by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week, while, according to sources, offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at as low as $450/mt FOB, down by $5/mt week on week. In particular, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235/SS400 HRC offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $479-482/mt CFR levels, versus $480-483/mt CFR last week. Besides, according to sources, offers for Q235 HRC in Pakistan have been voiced at $467-470/mt CFR, down by $5-6/mt over the past week. Meanwhile, Chinese offers to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at $490-495/mt CFR UAE with a few deals reported to have been signed at the above levels, compared to $500-505/mt CFR last week.
Besides, Chinese Q195 HRC offers to Turkey have been estimated at $490/mt CFR from Chinese suppliers with VAT. However, offers from non-VAT Chinese sellers have dropped to $475/mt CFR.
Ex-India HRC prices have moved down this week, following sharp declines in the European market, where sales remain limited due to CBAM-related challenges. Meanwhile, offers to the Middle East and Vietnam have stayed largely stable or been corrected down only slightly, while competition from Chinese suppliers continues to intensify, pressuring Indian mills in key export markets. More specifically, ex-India HRC offers in the Gulf have been reported in the range of $485-500/mt FOB compared to $490-500/mt FOB, with most offers reported at $510-525/mt CFR UAE, down by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. According to the sources, the Middle East HRC market is seeing mounting pressure, as ex-China HRC offers have slipped again this week to $490-495/mt CFR UAE, squeezing Indian mills out of the competition. In the meantime, offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have shown a significant drop to around $525/mt FOB, compared to $550-555/mt FOB at the beginning of the week. Most Indian offers have been heard at around $575/mt CFR southern Europe, against $590/mt CFR at the end of last week, with the decline largely attributed to CBAM regulations. Besides, according to sources, ex-India HRC offers have been also voiced in Europe, at €530/mt CFR, with partial CBAM payment included in the price.
This week, Vietnamese producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) has revised its domestic offers down for HRC orders of 10,000 mt and above following the initial price announcement on October 10. More specifically, after the announcement of new local HRC offers on October 10, this week FHS has decided to revise its offers, decreasing them by $11/mt to $511-514/mt CIF for November and December shipments, for 10,000-20,000 mt orders. Meanwhile, import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC have been voiced at $479-482/mt CFR levels, versus $480-483/mt CFR last week. Offers for SAE1006 HRC from India have been voiced at $503/mt CFR for end-of-November shipment, while another Indian producer has been targeting a higher price at $513/mt CFR, according to sources. Besides, offers for ex-Indonesia HRC in Vietnam have settled at $501/mt CFR, for January shipment, down by $7/mt week on week. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as last week.
In Turkey, domestic HRC prices have remained almost stable at $535-545/mt ex-works for December deliveries, and, according to sources, there have been sales at the lower end of the range to the medium-sized customers. As regards exports, Turkey is trying to maintain unchanged offers, but the workable levels really depend on the supplier and the buyers’ order breakdown, as well as on negotiations regarding reported CBAM extras. On the import side, non-VAT offers from China have settled at around $480/mt CFR, while the regular Chinese offers have remained mainly at $485-490/mt CFR, while a couple of deals might be closed in the coming days, sources state. Russian offers have slid to $490-495/mt CFR, down from $505/mt CFR earlier, and, according to the market information, deals for medium-sized lots have been closed at $480-490/mt CFR for December shipments. In addition, ex-Taiwan offers have remained at $515/mt CFR, while Japan is still offering at $525/mt CFR, both for December shipments.
North African suppliers have been relatively more active on the export side this week, even though their local prices have remained considerably higher than the workable export indications. The Algerian supplier has dropped its offers by around $20/mt over the past fortnight to $570/mt FOB and has been offering to the EU at €490-500/mt CFR, sources report. The domestic offer level for HRC in Algeria is now at around $600/mt ex-works. In addition, the Libyan mill has been offering at €450-465/mt CFR depending on the region, which is around $500-510/mt FOB, but the offer includes some second-grade material. Egypt, on the contrary, is staying away from active export offers, with the latest workable levels at around $530-535/mt FOB. Domestic HRC offers in Egypt are at close to $610/mt ex-works. Notably, the earlier announced safeguard tax of 13.6 percent or a minimum of EGP 3,673/mt (currently $77/mt) is not stopping import inflow, though, of course volumes have decreased. In particular, Russia has recently sold to Egypt at around $465/mt CFR, while China is offering at $480-490/mt CFR. Both of these offers are workable even with the tax included, against the local HRC prices in Egypt. Moreover, some buyers have even preferred to deal for ex-Turkey HRC at slightly below $540/mt FOB, taking advantage of the short lead time.
In the UAE, market sentiment has been cautious in recent weeks. However, Emirati buyers needing to restock have shown limited but steady interest in securing material at lower price levels, while remaining reluctant to accept higher offers. This has led to some trading activity, though overall demand remains moderate. According to reports, Chinese suppliers sold at the end of last week and earlier this week around 20,000-40,000 mt of HRC to the UAE at $490-495/mt CFR, while current offers from China for SS400 have been fixed at $490-500/mt CFR for November shipment, down from $500-510/mt CFR in the previous week. Meanwhile, other lower and more aggressive suppliers, which entered the market last week mainly from Russia, have not concluded any deals yet and have kept offers stable week on week at $480-485/mt CFR for December shipment. Similar stability has also been seen from other suppliers, such as India, where mills, following a holiday period and still in a holiday mood, have decided to keep offers stable over the past week at $515-525/mt CFR for November and December shipments. In addition, Japanese suppliers have also decided to keep offers stable over the past week, at $510-515/mt CFR for December shipment.
The European hot rolled coil market has remained in a state of limbo, with both buyers and sellers continuing to assess the direction of future price trends. Many market participants have taken a cautious, wait-and-see stance, keeping a close eye on the timing and details of the roll-out of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and upcoming EU safeguard measures, before making decisions on future bookings. Specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €620-640/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, while some are even targeting €640/mt ex-works for delivery in January. However, the tradable price levels have been estimated at €580-590/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, the same as last week, with a few deals reported to have been signed at the above levels this week. Meanwhile, in Italy, HRC offers from mills have been estimated at €600-610/mt ex-works for December delivery, against €590-610/mt ex-works last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €570-570/mt ex-works, against €560-580/mt ex-works last week. Besides, a few transactions have been reported at €600-610/mt delivered this week, according to sources. At the same time, the import segment has remained disorganized, with offers arriving under mixed terms - some including CBAM costs, others excluding them, and with pricing presented on varying bases such as CFR or even DDP. This inconsistency has made it difficult for market participants to identify any firm or reliable indicative price level, adding further uncertainty to an already fragile market environment. The indicative import HRC prices have settled at €470-550/mt CFR, depending on the supplier and terms of the contract.