The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has shown mixed but largely cautious dynamics this week, with price movements remaining mostly incremental amid uneven demand across regions. Ex-China HRC export prices have stayed range-bound as subdued buying interest and guarded sentiment offset tighter availability following recent policy measures. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s import prices have edged higher amid reduced Chinese participation, prompting buyers to turn to alternative suppliers at firmer levels. Ex-India HRC prices, meanwhile, have been assessed as stable to slightly firmer, though overall trade activity has remained selective as buyers have resisted chasing higher offers. In the GCC, import momentum has softened as offer prices have firmed up, despite a number of deals for ex-China and Indian material concluded in the previous week. In Europe, tradable HRC prices have held steady, while mills have continued to test higher offers, supported by strong order books and limited import competitiveness due to CBAM-related costs.
Ex-China HRC export prices have remained largely stable from mills over the past week, moving sideways amid cautious market sentiments, despite attempts by some traders to push offers slightly higher. Export activity has stayed moderate, with demand uneven across destinations, while domestic market uncertainty ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday has continued to weigh on pricing dynamics. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. However, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $468-475/mt CFR, versus $465-475/mt CFR last week, while their business activity has remained slow. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $465-470/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, while most traders have been targeting a minimum of $470/mt FOB in the next round of sales, according to sources. Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at around $500-510/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier, up by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. According to sources, several big deals for around 45,000 mt in total were reported to have been signed last week at $485-495/mt CFR UAR for March shipment. In addition, Chinese Q195 HRC offers through traders to Turkey have been estimated at $500-505/mt CFR for March shipment, the same as last week, while offers for S235 HRC have settled at $510/mt CFR for March shipment. As of January 30, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,289/mt ($470.5/mt), increasing by RMB 13/mt ($1.9/mt) or 0.4 percent since January 20, while decreasing by 0.6 percent compared to the previous trading day, January 26.
In Vietnam, import HRC prices have edged higher over the past week, driven by reduced availability from China and firmer offer levels from alternative suppliers. The withdrawal of Chinese traders following the introduction of export licensing and the impact of antidumping duties have tightened supply, while rising domestic prices in India and higher offers from Japan and Indonesia have further supported the market, despite demand remaining selective. More specifically, the latest indicative offers for ex-China Q235 HRC are reported at $487-490/mt CFR for February shipment, mainly the same as last week. However, according to sources, these price levels are mainly indicative, as most Chinese traders have stopped offering both Q235 and even Q195 HRC, as well as SAE1006 HRC, due to antidumping duty. Indicative offers for ex-China Q355 HRC have been voiced at $502-505/mt CFR. At the same time, other foreign suppliers have been offering SAE1006 HRC in the range of $495-530/mt CFR, versus $487-505/mt CFR last week. According to sources, while a number of offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC have still been occasionally voiced through traders at around $487/mt CFR, by the end of the week most market insiders have reported new offers from Indian suppliers at not lower than $500/mt CFR, mainly amid significant HRC price growth in the local Indian market. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $495-500/mt CFR, versus $484-490/mt CFR last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have shown early signs of firming up this week, supported by slightly improved demand in the Middle East, while other key export destinations have remained largely unchanged. More specifically, ex-India HRC offers have been reported in the range of around $475-480/mt FOB in the Middle East, up by $5/mt week on week. In particular, most offers for ex-India HRC are at $500-505/mt CFR UAE, compared to last week’s deal prices at $495/mt CFR UAE and at $500/mt CFR Oman. Besides, at the end of last week, another deal for around 7,000 mt of ex-India HRC was signed at $505-510/mt CFR UAE, which translates to around $480/mt FOB, according to sources. In the meantime, this week there has been market charter about fresh deals signed for ex-India HRC in Qatar and the UAE at slightly higher price levels of around $480/mt FOB and $482/mt FOB, respectively. Furthermore, while at the beginning of this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam were still voiced at $487-490/mt CFR, which translates to around $470/mt FOB, by the end of the week most offers have been estimated at a minimum of $500/mt CFR or around $480/mt FOB.
At the same time, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare. Indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been voiced at $600/mt CFR, up from $570-575/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $550/mt FOB, up by $30/mt week on week. Besides, according to sources, a small volume of Indian-origin HRC is reported to have been sold through a trader to Italy at around €600/mt DDP, inclusive of CBAM costs. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $480-550/mt FOB, versus $470-520/mt FOB last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers in Vietnam and the Middle East, while the higher end corresponds to indicative offers in Europe.
In the GCC, HRC import activity has lost momentum as firmer offer levels have reduced buying urgency, although selective purchases have still been reported amid expectations of further price increases. Indian-origin material has continued to attract interest, with suppliers reported to have sold around 20,000 mt to the UAE and approximately 15,000 mt to Qatar for March shipment at $500-505/mt CFR. Indian offers to the UAE have meanwhile edged up to the same range, while lower levels of around $495/mt CFR are still being discussed for larger-volume orders. In addition, another deal last week is said to have involved around 7,000 mt sold to the UAE at higher levels of $505-510/mt CFR. Chinese material has also featured in market discussions. Two UAE-based pipe producers are said to have booked a combined 46,000-50,000 mt of HRC from a top-tier Chinese supplier for March shipment, with the larger parcel of around 31,000 mt concluded at an effective level of approximately $495/mt CFR. At the same time, SS400 offers from China have remained at $500-510/mt CFR for March shipment. On the Russian side, a UAE pipe producer is reported to have booked 35,000-40,000 mt at around $470/mt CFR for April loading, while a Saudi buyer was earlier said to have purchased around 30,000 mt at the same level for end-of-March shipment. Meanwhile, Japanese and Taiwanese offers have remained at $495-500/mt CFR. Some buying interest has been seen for April shipment, particularly for re-rolling grade material, but negotiations have stalled as suppliers are targeting higher levels around $510/mt CFR, while buyers are aiming for $500-505/mt CFR, preventing deals from being concluded.
In the HRC market in Turkey, prices have been relatively stable during the past week, considering still high scrap prices, moderate demand and less aggressive import offers. Domestic prices from Turkish mills have been mainly reported at $560-570/mt ex-works in official offers, while $5/mt discounts are considered to be achievable. As regards exports, Turkish mills are aiming to reach $545-555/mt FOB and above depending on the shipment, while negotiations with EU customers are quite specific due to the ongoing CBAM-related uncertainties and various evaluations.
Import offers from China have mainly been ranging at $500-505/mt CFR for shipments at the end of March, similar to the levels last week. The latest deals were closed at $495-497/mt CFR, SteelOrbis reported. Egypt is currently out of the market with the latest deals closed to Turkey at $565/mt CFR by a mill. Russia’s sanctioned HRC is available at $470-480/mt CFR, down $5/mt over the week, mainly for February and March shipments, depending on the supplier. The non-sanctioned supplier seems to be out the market for the time being.
In the MENA region, a lot of around 30,000 mt of HRC has been sold from Russia at $480/mt CFR, while another Russian supplier, according to the buyers, is offering at $470-480/mt CFR with a shorter lead time. Overall, the Russian mills are offering at $440/mt FOB Black Sea and $430-435/mt FOB Baltic Sea for sanctioned HRC.
In Europe, while HRC tradable prices have remained largely stable week on week, local producers have as expected continued to test higher offer levels. Strong order books, limited import competitiveness due to CBAM-related costs, and ongoing regulatory support for the domestic industry have continued to underpin mills’ sentiments, even as spot demand and restocking activity have remained subdued across key EU markets.
Specifically, in the local EU market, while offers from ArcelorMittal for April delivery HRC have remained at €700/mt delivered, or around €685/mt ex-works, new target prices for April delivery from other mills in northern Europe have been estimated at €670-680/mt ex-works, up by €20-30/mt week on week. However, the tradable price levels are still estimated at €640-645/mt ex-works, the same as last week. In Italy, mills have been targeting €650-660/mt for March delivery, compared to €650/mt ex-works last week. However, the tradable price level has been estimated at €630-640/mt ex-works, the same as last week. Meanwhile, in the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €495-540/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €600-630/mt levels, depending on the supplier. Most offers for ex-Asia origin HRC on DDP basis, including CBAM, through traders have been voiced at €615-620/mt DDP, the same as last week. However, talk about ex-Indonesia HRC offers at €580/mt DDP has been circulating in the market this week. Besides, according to market insiders, talk about several small-volumes deals for ex-India and ex-Turkey HRC signed through traders at €600-630/mt DDP southern Europe has been circulating in the market.