While some regional adjustments have being made to spur interest, global hot rolled coil (HRC) trade flows have remained subdued this week. Competitive pressures and cautious buyer behaviour has continued to weigh on the global HRC market, leaving sentiment fragile. In Asia, Chinese HRC export offers have edged up slightly, but actual trading activity has remained limited as buyer optimism has continued to fade. At the same time, Indian HRC prices have slipped modestly, though they have remained largely uncompetitive, with muted trade across most destinations. In Vietnam, local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) implemented a widely expected $10/mt price cut, aligning more closely with competitive Japanese offers to retain market share. In the UAE, HRC imports have stalled. Buyers have been pushing back against elevated Chinese offers, suggesting a mismatch between supplier expectations and local market appetite. Meanwhile, the EU HRC market has remained under significant pressure. Weak demand and falling import prices have been eroding support for domestic mills, which have been facing growing competition from more attractively priced overseas material.
In China, a slight increase in HRC export offers has been observed this week, supported by the modest rebound in HRC futures prices seen last week. Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have moved to $450-465/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $457.5/mt FOB, up by $5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, smaller mills have been offering their HRC at around $450/mt FOB, compared to $445/mt FOB last week, though occasional offers from small non-VAT Chinese mills are still voiced at $440/mt FOB level, according to sources. Meanwhile, the tradable price for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC has been estimated at $445-450/mt FOB, compared to $430-445/mt FOB at the beginning of last week. According to sources, most Chinese HRC suppliers have remained quiet in terms of export sales. Initial optimism over potential steel production cuts - driven by anti-smog restrictions in Tangshan and Beijing’s renewed push to curb excessive competition and eliminate outdated capacity - has begun to fade, after supporting Chinese HRC prices last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have dropped again this week to $480-540/mt FOB, down by $20/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, but the decrease has still not been enough to drive sales, as buyers in the Middle East are reported to be fully stocked, while bids from Europe remain too low for deals to materialize.
More specifically, ex-India HRC offers prices in the Middle East have been cut by around $10-20/mt to the range of $480-500/mt FOB, compared to $500-510/mt FOB last week. Meanwhile, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have been reported at $590-600/mt CFR, which corresponds to around $540-550/mt FOB, following several deals for small quantities signed at $600/mt CFR Antwerp last week. Besides, according to sources, a few deals for around 15,000-20,000 mt of ex-India HRC have been signed at $580-600/mt CFR this week. Sources said that unstable global markets and limits on leveraging prices will continue to prompt Indian mills to focus on domestic sales and reduce marketing exposure overseas.
In Vietnam, local producer Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS) has announced its new local HRC prices, cutting them by $10/mt compared to June to $497-507/mt CIF, depending on the order volume, following the same move seen by another local mill Hoa Phat last week. FHS has not been ready to cut prices more, while it is competing with Japanese sellers, who have become more active in the trading of SAE grade HRC to Vietnam amid some slowdown of sales from China. At the end of last week, a deal for 2,000-5,000 mt of ex-Japan HRC was done to Vietnam at $510/mt CFR. The price is assessed as being on the higher side as, according to market sources, most bids for ex-Japan coils are still at $490-495/mt CFR, only slightly higher than $490/mt CFR last week. Besides, ex-Indonesia HRC offers are at $490-500/mt CFR, almost unchanged from last week. But the interest is low not only from the buyers’ side, as they will target not above $485/mt CFR for this origin, but also from the seller. The Indonesian mill is targeting $480-490/mt FOB for 3mm HRC in the European market. The ex-China SAE1006 price is assessed indicatively at $480/mt CFR, increasing by $5-10/mt over the past week, with no interest from Vietnamese buyers. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has increased by $10/mt on the lower end and by $5/mt on the upper end to $480-495/mt CFR.
The European HRC market has remained under pressure this week, with prices continuing to slide. Most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, for August-September deliveries, have been estimated at €550-560/mt ex-works, down by €10/mt week on week, while tradable prices in northern Europe have also declined further this week, by around €20/mt on the lower end of the range week on week to €530-550/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, in Italy, most market sources agree that there are "no official prices" in the domestic HRC market, which remains unclear. Some have reported definite lows around €510–520/mt ex-works, while others mention offers at €530–540/mt ex-works, particularly when buyers require a specification from a specific mill. Thus, offers for HRC in Italy have dropped by around €10-20/mt week on week. At the same time, market participants widely expect domestic base prices in Italy to soon reach the €500/mt ex-works level, as weak demand and intensifying competition from imports weigh on sentiment. A growing influx of low-cost imports - particularly from Indonesia - has added further downward pressure on domestic pricing. According to sources, around 70,000 mt of ex-Indonesia HRC have been booked at €450/mt CFR Italy, down by €10/mt week on week. Besides, another deal for ex-Indonesia HRC was reportedly signed at around €470-475/mt CFR Antwerp last week. Meanwhile, according to sources, bids from Italian customers for ex-Indonesia material have been reported at €430/mt CFR level, down by €10/mt week on week. Offers from other foreign suppliers in Europe have been voiced at €470-500/mt CFR, depending on the supplier.
In Turkey, most HRC pricing has remained stable to slightly down over the past week except the offers coming from China, which have continued fluctuating. Early this week, Chinese offers rolled back to $470-475/mt CFR for 3mm and up Q195 material for September shipments, but later on rebounded to $470-483/mt CFR, with the lower end belonging to non-VAT offers. Import offers from Russia for non-sanctioned material are at $480-485/mt CFR for August shipments, with slightly lower levels possible at a firm bid. The sanctioned Russian supplier is offering at $460-465/mt CFR with buyers’ price ideas reported at $450/mt CFR, also for August shipments. The Egyptian mill is offering at $535-540/mt CFR, with no fresh deals reported. In addition, according to sources, a Japanese mill is offering at $525/mt CFR and South Korea has been in the market at $530-535/mt CFR.
Local HRC in Turkey is at $535-555/mt ex-works officially, with $5-10/mt lower considered as a fair market price. Still, demand remains low and mills are not in a rush to provide large discounts since it is fairly clear that they will not trigger active sales. As for exports, the official offer levels are at $525-535/mt FOB, down $5/mt over the past week, while the levels of $505-520/mt FOB are considered workable. Moreover, slightly lower prices may also be accepted by Turkish mills in the case of large volumes and complicated order breakdowns.
In the UAE, import activity has been quiet this week due to rising prices, especially from Chinese suppliers. Emirati buyers, who made large purchases last week, are not keen to accept new offers, as current stock levels are sufficient. Reports show UAE tube makers bought around 10,000-12,000 mt and 25,000-30,000 mt from China at $470/mt CFR and $478/mt CFR for August shipment, respectively. This week, Chinese SS400 offers rose to $480-490/mt CFR, up from $470-480/mt CFR last week. Non-VAT offers from traders have also increased to $470-475/mt CFR. Furthermore, last week, around 35,000 mt of HRC from Japan were sold to UAE re-rollers at $480-485/mt CFR for August shipping, while Japanese offers remain unchanged this week. Similar stabilization is seen from South Korean, Taiwanese and Russian suppliers, with offers at $510-515/mt CFR for South Korea and Taiwan, and at $450-460/mt CFR from Russia, for August and September shipments. However, Indian suppliers have lowered FOB offers to $480-500/mt, translating to $515-535/mt CFR for August, though still higher than other suppliers.
