The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has entered September on a cautious note, with sentiment weighed down by weak demand and uncertainty across major regions. Ex-China HRC prices have edged down as stricter customs checks slowed export flows and domestic prices dropped sharply, creating additional pressure on international markets. Still, leading Chinese producer Shagang Group kept its local HRC prices stable for September, highlighting mills’ reluctance to follow spot price declines too aggressively. Meanwhile, Indian HRC export activity has remained subdued despite stable pricing, as overseas buyers have refrained from making fresh commitments, while, in Vietnam, Hoa Phat announced a hike in HRC prices, but the move has been met with scepticism given the fragile domestic demand and the persistent downward influence of cheaper Chinese offers. In the Middle East, softer Chinese prices have sparked renewed interest from UAE buyers in import bookings, though activity has stayed limited. Europe has showed little sign of a post-summer recovery, with mills returning from outages but in no rush to resume business activity.
In China, HRC export activity has remained subdued this week as stricter customs checks on cargoes avoiding value-added tax (VAT) and limited interest from international buyers have kept participants cautious. Ex-China mills’ offers have moved down, reflecting sharp declines in domestic prices, weaker futures, and low confidence in September demand. Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have moved to $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, down by $2.5/mt week on week, while offers from smaller mills have been voiced at around $470-480/mt FOB, the same as last week. Meanwhile, the tradable price for ex-China HRC from traders has settled at $470-475/mt FOB, depending on the destination, compared to $470-480/mt FOB last week. In particular, according to sources, offers for ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $494-496/mt CFR, down by $2-4/mt since the beginning of the week, while a deal for around 5,000 mt of ex-China Q195 HRC was signed at $490/mt CFR Pakistan, down by $5/mt week on week.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained largely stable over the past week amid muted trading, with deals failing to materialize due to very low bids. Mounting pessimism in key export destinations and mills’ reluctance to aggressively pursue overseas sales have kept activity subdued. More specifically, offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC have settled at $505-515/mt CFR in the Middle East, up by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. According to sources, most offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC in the Gulf region have been voiced at $535-540/mt CFR, the same as last week. However, a number of sources have reported offers at slightly higher levels of around $545-550/mt CFR. Meanwhile, offer prices from Indian suppliers to Europe have been voiced in the range of $545-550/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week, with EU buyers reporting offers at $600-605/mt CFR levels.
In Vietnam, local producer Hoa Phat Group has raised its domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices for October shipment by around $10/mt compared with last month to VND 13,900/kg ($527/mt) CIF in northern and central Vietnam, and VND 13,930/kg ($528/mt) CIF in the south - a move widely anticipated by market insiders on the back of expectations of stronger demand in September. Still, sentiment in the market remains divided. While some see the increase as justified by the seasonal outlook, others argue that the adjustment is premature, pointing to the absence of clear signs of recovery. At the same time, the weak Chinese futures performance and increasingly strict port regulations on non-VAT HRC are adding pressure to regional trade flows, casting doubt on whether higher prices from Hoa Phat can be sustained. However, some market participants also believe the adjustment reflects Hoa Phat’s intention to allocate larger volumes for export, suggesting the producer’s focus on the domestic market may not be so strong. Import offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not subject to antidumping duty, have been reported at $494-496/mt CFR for October and November shipment, down by $4-5/mt week on week, though a deal for around 20,000 mt of ex-China Q235 HRC 2,000 mm has been signed at $492/mt CFR for November shipment this week. Meanwhile, import offers for SAE1006 HRC have settled at $495-520/mt CFR, depending on the supplier. According to sources, a deal for around 20,000 mt of ex-China SAE1006 HRC of thickness less than 1.2 mm has been signed at $520/mt CFR, though this information has not been officially confirmed by the time of publication. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has settled at $500-505/mt CFR, compared to $498-505/mt CFR in the previous week.
In the UAE, import activity has increased as ex-China prices have softened due to weaker futures prices. As a result, Emirati buyers in need of stocks have made some purchases. Reports show that China sold about 20,000-25,000 mt of HRC for end-of-October shipment at $513/mt CFR. Offers for SS400 grade HRC are now at $500-515/mt CFR, down from $510-515/mt CFR last week. However, Indian suppliers have kept offers steady at $530-540/mt CFR for November shipment, but, due to the higher pricing, there is very limited interest from UAE-based buyers. Japanese suppliers have not made any fresh offers either and have maintained their price levels at $510-520/mt CFR for November shipment. Nevertheless, according to sources, deal levels around $500/mt CFR are possible for serious buyers. Meanwhile, South Korean and Taiwanese suppliers have remained inactive, withdrawing offers as the market anticipates further price declines following the recent decreases in China.
Local Turkish HRC prices have remained relatively stable over the past week with official offers standing at $550-565/mt ex-works and levels $5/mt lower are considered possible in the case of serious inquiries. Mills are mainly offering for October deliveries and only some suppliers have started voicing indications for November, citing limited allocation. Export offers are at $540-550/mt FOB officially, while $533-535/mt FOB levels are considered workable by buyers. Still, Turkish mills are not expected to act aggressively until demand from the EU resumes after the holidays and the market situation gains clarity. Import offers from China have been mainly hovering at around $505-511/mt CFR Turkey, with no fresh deals reported, while Turkish re-rollers are still mainly bidding at not above $500/mt CFR. Indications from Egypt are at $555/mt CFR, while the Egyptian mill has been concentrating on sales to alternative destinations. In fact, there was a 10,000 mt sale from Egypt to the UK at $540/mt FOB. In Turkey’s import market, offers from Russian mills are absent for now, with Russian suppliers expected to return soon with material for November shipment.
The European HRC market started September on a sluggish note, with mills across the region slowly returning from summer outages but showing no urgency to resume full operations. Local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe have been estimated at €580-630/mt ex-works, depending on the supplier, while offers from mills in Italy have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works. However, tradeable prices for HRC in northern Europe and Italy have increased by around €10/mt over the past week, reaching €570-580/mt ex-works and €540/mt ex-works, respectively. According to sources, trading activity has remained subdued, particularly in southern Europe, where demand in Italy and Spain continues to lag, while in northern Europe mills are maintaining their attempts to raise offer levels, but limited spot demand is capping transaction volumes. Meanwhile, import activity has remained virtually frozen amid persistent uncertainty over the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Buyers are largely refraining from placing new orders, while indicative import HRC prices were heard in the range of €475–530/mt CFR, depending on origin.