Global hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have showed mixed dynamics this week, with overall stability in key regions, though some localized adjustments have been observed. While prices in China and India have remained largely flat, cautious sentiment has led to occasional deals at lower levels. The futures-driven softness in China has contributed to a slight downward pressure. Meanwhile, some markets, like Vietnam, secured discounts on imported material, though domestic producers found support from trade protection measures. In Europe, mills continued to push for higher prices, capitalizing on limited import availability, while demand in Turkey and the UAE has remained subdued, with buyers selectively exploring overseas offers. Overall, global HRC trade remains a balancing act between weak demand, cautious restocking, and region-specific price strategies.
This week, most Chinese HRC mills have continued to maintain their offers at unchanged levels, though several producers as well as Chinese traders have decided to go a bit lower as the downward bias in HRC futures prices has been affecting the market mood. At the same time, several deals have been reported mainly from Asian suppliers with additional discounts. Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have settled at $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, down by $2.5/mt week on week, mainly for April shipment. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced at $465-470/mt FOB, mainly the same as last week. The tradable levels for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC have been estimated at $462-470/mt FOB, compared to $466-475/mt FOB last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-China Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam at $475-479/mt CFR, down by $3/mt week on week. Sources reported about several deals for around 10,000 mt in total for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC at $475/mt CFR Vietnam this week. Besides, according to sources, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-China SAE1006 HRC has been signed at $498/mt CFR. Furthermore, another deal for around 20,000 mt of ex-China coils has been done to Malaysia at $491/mt CFR. At the same time, on Friday, March 7, domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,450-3,530/mt ($476-487/mt) ex-warehouse, with the average price level down RMB 15/mt ($2/mt) compared to February 28, according to SteelOrbis’ data.
Vietnamese HRC producer Hoa Phat Group has announced its new local prices for shipments in May, increasing them slightly by around $9/mt month on month to VND 13,210-13,240/kg ($516-517/mt) CIF. However, according to market insiders, the price increase is mainly supported by the recent announcement of antidumping duties against Chinese HRC, while the price trend for import coils has been failing to show any significant recovery with HRC offers from Chinese suppliers remaining mainly at the same levels as last week, while other foreign suppliers, from India and Indonesia in particular, have agreed to provide discounts in new deals.
Specifically, according to sources, while offers from Indonesia for SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam have been ranging at $505-515/mt CFR, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-Indonesia coils is reported to have been signed at $496/mt CFR for April shipment. Besides, according to sources, another deal for 5,000-10,000 mt of ex-India HRC was signed at $505/mt CFR, while initial offers were reported at $520/mt CFR. “Vietnamese buyers are bidding at $495/mt CFR now,” a trader based in Vietnam told SteelOrbis, adding, “Indian sellers are unlikely to accept such a low level.” In the meantime, offers from Chinese suppliers for SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $490-495/mt CFR for March-April shipment, down by $5/mt week on week. Besides, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235, which are excluded from AD duty, have been voiced at $475-479/mt CFR, down by $3/mt week on week.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained largely stable at $485-510/mt FOB, and, while market sentiments have been slightly upbeat, they have not been translated into actual trading activity. Thus, deals have remained occasional and have mostly been concluded with additional discounts. According to market insiders, only a deal for 5,000 mt of ex-India SAE1006 HRC is reported to have been signed in the UAE this week, at $515/mt CFR for April shipment, which translates to around $480-485/mt FOB. Besides, sentiment among Indian sellers has improved slightly following reports that, despite Vietnam imposing antidumping duties on ex-China imports, India has been excluded. Thus, according to sources, a deal for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has been signed at $505/mt CFR Vietnam, or around $480-485/mt FOB, though the initial offer has been reported at $520/mt CFR.
In Turkey, although HRC demand has not improved much over the past week, sentiment has become somewhat more positive, particularly due to higher import scrap booking prices. In addition, certain HRC volumes have been sold outside of Turkey within February first at $520-530/mt FOB and then at $535-555/mt FOB, and so Turkish mills are not under much pressure. Notably, the higher end of the workable price range for HRC from Turkey has been closed in a deal for up to 10,000 mt to the US, while for the EU this is still considered to be overpriced. Following higher scrap prices and the relatively positive situation in China, local mills in Turkey have increased their offers for HRC from $550-565/mt ex-works to $565-575/mt ex-works for end of April and May deliveries. As for exports, some offers have been reported at up to $570/mt FOB, but $550-555/mt FOB levels are also considered possible. Sources mainly evaluate the new, higher levels as indicative ones, expecting that in the coming weeks demand will show the real workable price levels. In the meantime, in the import segment, China’s offers have been fluctuating throughout the week and have settled at $490-500/mt CFR for end of April and early May shipments. Russia has been offering at $505-510/mt CFR, almost in line with the previous deals.
North Africa has also been rather active in the flat steel export markets. According to sources, Egypt has sold 10,000 mt of HRC to the UK and a medium-sized lot to Latin America at around $535/mt FOB, while Turkey has booked around 20,000 mt at $545/mt CFR. In addition, an Algerian HRC producer has been in the market with offers at $550-560/mt FOB, with European buyers being targeted, SteelOrbis understands.
In the UAE, some import activity has been noticed this week, and Emirati customers in need of stock have chosen Japanese and Indian suppliers. According to reports, Japanese suppliers sold 23,000 mt of HRC to Emirati re-rollers last week at $510/mt CFR for May shipment. At present, fresh offers from Japan to the UAE have been set at about $510-515/mt CFR. Meanwhile, Indian suppliers supplied 5,000 mt to the UAE at $515/mt CFR, with current offers reported at $515-525/mt CFR, down from $525-530/mt CFR last week. On the other hand, Chinese suppliers’ SS400 grade offers have been stable week on week at $495-515/mt CFR, though they have not made any sales. Additionally, Taiwanese suppliers have lowered their offers to the UAE this week by $5/mt to $525/mt CFR for shipments in late April or early May. Meanwhile, there have been rumors that a South Korean mill has offered HRC to the UAE this week at $510/mt CFR, but the mill's representatives have denied this claim.
While trade activity in the European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has slowed down a little during the past week as buyers and sellers have awaited further clarity on the EU's steel safeguard review, expected to conclude by March 31, local producer ArcelorMittal has as expected decided to go higher in the next round of sales, increasing its prices by around €20/mt to €680/mt ex-works from early February with other mills expected to follow suit. However, according to sources, the current price increase is not a result of higher consumption or an improved economic outlook but is instead driven by restricted import availability and challenges faced by local mills. Official offers from other European mills are estimated at around €640-650/mt ex-works in northern Europe, for June delivery materials, the same as last week, while offers from Italian producers mainly for May delivery coils have been voiced at around €630-650/mt ex-works, against €610-630/mt ex-works last week. However, most buyers’ estimations for the workable prices have been heard in the north at €630/mt ex-works, against €600-630/mt ex-works last week and at €610-630/mt ex-works in Italy, up by €10-15/mt since last week. In the import segment, most offers for ex-Asia HRC have been reported at €550-560/mt CFR southern Europe, mainly the same as last week. According to sources, although most customers are refraining from import purchases due to uncertainty over the safeguard duty, several deals for small volumes have been reported for ex-Indonesia HRC at €550/mt CFR.