The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market presented a mixed picture this week, with price movements varying across key regions in response to shifting demand, competitive pressures, and broader market sentiment. In China, export offers for HRC surged, driven by rising domestic prices and stronger futures. However, overseas buyers remained cautious, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty over demand sustainability and global trade dynamics. The Vietnamese import market saw a firming trend in HRC prices as well, supported by stronger offers from key suppliers such as China and Japan. In India, however, HRC export prices held largely stable, though sentiment in the market remained under pressure due to sluggish demand from traditional buyers and growing competition from other foreign suppliers. The Turkish HRC market saw no significant change in domestic pricing, though some buyers reported small discounts being available for firm negotiations, while in the UAE, HRC import activity slowed considerably amid rising prices and cautious buyer sentiment.
Meanwhile, in Europe, HRC prices showed signs of stabilizing after weeks of decline. Market sources indicated that prices may have reached a bottom, with mills resisting further discounts ahead of the traditional August production stoppages.
Export activity for Chinese HRC has remained sluggish over the past week, as recent sharp price increases, a clouded market outlook, and persistently weak demand have continued to dampen buying interest from overseas customers. Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have moved to $460-470/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $465/mt FOB, up by $7.5/mt week on week. At the same time, many foreign buyers have opted to stay on the sidelines, adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach amid the prevailing market uncertainty. The tradable price for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC has been estimated at $455-460/mt FOB, compared to $445-450/mt FOB at the beginning of last week. In particular, following several deals for at least 40,000 mt in total of ex-China SS400 HRC sold in the UAE at $470-478/mt CFR last week, this week most offers have been voiced at $485-495/mt CFR, for September and October shipment. Besides, most offers for ex-China Q195 HRC in Turkey have been voiced at $490-495/mt CFR level, up by $5-10/mt week on week.
Import prices for ex-China HRC into Vietnam have edged higher this week, supported by an uptrend in Chinese HRC futures prices. More specifically, this week, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers, which are not targeted by antidumping (AD) duty, have been voiced at $463-465/mt CFR, following several deals at $458/mt CFR at the end of last week. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $485-490/mt CFR compared to $470-475/mt CFR at the beginning of last week. According to sources, a deal for ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC for around 30,000 mt in total was booked to Vietnam at $497/mt CFR last week, while most offers have settled at $510-515/mt CFR this week, mainly for September shipment. Offers for ex-Indonesia SAE1006/SS400 HRC have been voiced at around $490-500/mt CFR, the same as last week. However, most bids are still reported at $480-485/mt CFR levels. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $485-500/mt CFR, up by $5/mt week on week. At the same time, interest in domestically produced HRC has picked up following last week’s announcement by local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS), which set new prices at $497–507/mt CIF, depending on purchase volumes.
Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained largely stable this week. Offers in Middle East have remined at $480-500/mt FOB, but no deals were confirmed after buyers were heard to have pulled out of negotiations failing to secure discounts of the offers submitted by sellers. Meanwhile, ex-India offers submitted in Europe have settled at $540-550/mt FOB and with some mills reporting relatively higher volumes sales, although fewer in terms number of trades, revived market mood somewhat. In the meantime, a section of the market said that overall trade activity would continue to remain sluggish as market in the Middle East was heard to be fully stocked amid weak demand, while trade activity in Europe was unlikely to show an uptick in view of weak demand and forthcoming lull holiday season. Besides, tighter competition with other foreign suppliers in Europe, especially those from Indonesia, will keep put additional pressure on Indian HRC sellers.
In Turkey, the domestic HRC pricing has remained unchanged at $535-545/mt ex-works base officially, while the buyers reported that small discounts have been possible. However, the end-user segment has been showing a bit of subdued demand lately and, therefore, pipe-makers and re-rollers are not in much rush to restock and prefer covering only their urgent needs. In addition, the export segment of HRC from Turkey has been slowing down, following a couple of weeks of activity and the prices, according to sources, have returned to around $520-530/mt FOB officially. Still, lower levels are considered possible for serious buyers. Import offers from China have settled at $475-483/mt CFR this week for September shipments with no takers around. Russia has managed to sell over 35,000 mt of non-sanctioned HRC at $485/mt CFR on average. In addition, the indicative offers from Egypt stood at $535/mt CFR versus $10/mt lower bids, SteelOrbis has learned.
In North Africa, the targeted levels for HRC sales from Egypt are at $520-525/mt FOB for end-of-August and September shipments, down by around $5-10/mt over fortnight. Turkish buyers have reported indications at $535/mt CFR and some bids have been placed at $525/mt CFR with no deals heard. Algeria, according to sources, is in the market with $545/mt FOB for September shipments, $10/mt down over the week. Offers from China for HRC to North Africa are from $470-480/mt CFR Egypt and to $500-505/mt CFR Algeria, sources reported.
Two of the Russian mills, who have been regularly present on exports in the recent months, are not sold out for August shipments. One of them traded a total of around 80,000 mt of HRC at $460-465/mt CFR to MENA region with the freight reported at around $40-45/mt. Another supplier, according to sources, has recently sold over 35,000 mt of HRC to Turkey at $485/mt CFR on average, although the buyers have reported slightly lower levels as well. The freight from the Black Sea to Turkey is estimated at $20-25/mt depending on the region. For the new round, Russian mills are targeting to increase the HRC sales price for September by $5-10/mt, based on slightly better market expectation for the fall, but also due to limited production amid some scheduled maintenances.
In the UAE, HRC import offers continued to rise this week, particularly from Chinese suppliers, which in turn impacted Japanese offers as well. However, UAE buyers have resisted accepting higher prices and have not concluded any new deals. Since Emirati buyers had previously made significant bulk purchases, current stock levels are sufficient to meet existing demand. As a result, Chinese suppliers have raised SS400 offers by $5/mt to $485-495/mt CFR. Additionally, non-VAT Chinese offers have slightly increased from $470-475/mt CFR last week to $470-480/mt CFR for September shipment. Similarly, Japanese suppliers, who managed to sell some lots to the UAE recently, have also raised their offers by $5-10/mt, now standing at $490-500/mt CFR for September shipment. Meanwhile, Indian suppliers have kept their offers stable, but prices remain at higher levels for Emirati buyers. Reportedly, current Indian offers are at $480-500/mt FOB, which equates to approximately $515-535/mt CFR GCC. On the other hand, Russian and South Korean suppliers have not made any fresh offers this week. Previously, Russian offers to the UAE were around $450-460/mt CFR for August shipment, while South Korean offers stood at $510-515/mt CFR for September shipment. However, according to sources, Russian suppliers are expected to announce fresh offers next week, likely with an increase of around $10/mt.
European HRC prices seem to have stabilized this week, suggesting a potential market bottom, with most market sources expecting relative stability ahead of the traditional August production stoppages. Specifically, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, for August-September deliveries, have been estimated at €550-560/mt ex-works, the same as last week, while tradable prices in northern Europe have also remained stable at €530-550/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, in Italy, indicative offers from mills have remained at €530-550/mt ex-works, while workable prices have been estimated at €510-525/mt ex-works level. Most offers for import HRC in southern Europe have remained stable at €450-500/mt CFR, depending on the supplier. According to sources, following several large volume deals for ex-Indonesia HRC at €450/mt CFR last week, this week trade activity has been slow with most offers reported at €450-460/mt CFR Italy, while offers from Indonesia in northern Europe have been estimated at €460-470/mt CFR level. Besides, following several deals for ex-India HRC signed at $580-600/mt CFR Antwerp last week, a few additional deals are reported to have been concluded this week at the same level. This equates to roughly €495–510/mt CFR, with most volumes directed to northern Europe. Meanwhile, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have varied depending on the source, with most offers quoted at €480-500/mt CFR, duty included, the same as last week.