The global HRC market has showed mixed but generally firmer sentiment this week, driven largely by strengthening futures and domestic prices in China. Ex-China HRC offers have risen by at least $5/mt, supported by gains in the futures market and improved local spot prices. However, despite this upward momentum, international buyers remained cautious, limiting transaction volumes. In India, mills have managed to hold HRC export prices steady, resisting further declines even as global demand stayed subdued. This contrasted with Vietnam, where the import market split: ex-China material became more expensive in line with China’s stronger trend, while other exporters seeking to secure sales offered more competitive pricing. A similar dynamic emerged in the Middle East. Emirati buyers have pushed back against higher offers, taking advantage of discounted Japanese HRC and booking considerable tonnages, even as ex-China offers started climbing. Meanwhile, in Europe, mills maintained firm offer levels amid expectations of an improving price outlook. Still, buyers continued securing competitive tonnages from Asia, particularly from India and Indonesia, highlighting persistent price sensitivity across the market.
Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) export prices have inched up slightly this week, with both mills and traders raising offers amid early signs of recovery in the domestic market. Higher HRC futures and a modest rebound in domestic spot prices have lifted sentiments somewhat, but most overseas buyers remain cautious. Market participants are watching closely to see whether the upward trend can be sustained before reviving purchases, particularly ahead of the next pricing moves from Chinese mills. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have been estimated at $470-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, mainly for December shipment, up by $5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt CFR, compared to $460-465/mt CFR last week. At the same time, offers from most Chinese traders have moved to $470/mt FOB and above, versus $460-465/mt FOB last week, while, according to sources, offers from non-VAT traders have been still voiced at as low as $450-455/mt FOB, up by $10/mt week on week. As of October 31, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,308/mt ($467/mt), increasing by RMB 52/mt ($7/mt) since October 23, while down 0.72 percent compared to the previous trading day, October 30.
Ex-India hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers have remained largely stable, but trade activity has been almost silent amid stiff competition from other Asian sellers, at a time when the Middle East is reportedly fully stocked and European buyers are avoiding trade risks. In particular, ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have been maintained at lower levels of $485-500/mt FOB, but weak demand and more competitive offers led by ex-China were attributed to lack of success by Indian sellers. Meanwhile, ex-India offers in Europe too have been kept unchanged at low levels of $525/mt FOB. According to sources, several deals for around 50,000 mt of ex-India HRC in total have been signed at $575-580/mt CFR this week, for November shipment. At the same time, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $500/mt CFR level, the same as last week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has remained at $485-525/mt FOB, the same as last week.
Vietnam’s HRC import market saw a mild uptrend this week, with ex-China offers edging higher in line with the rebound in Chinese HRC futures. The improvement in futures sentiment supported Chinese mills’ confidence, prompting firmer pricing. Meanwhile, other foreign suppliers, particularly those offering re-rolling grade, have adopted a more cautious approach, keeping offers largely stable or even providing slight discounts to attract Vietnamese buyers. Import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC have been voiced at $487-492/mt CFR versus $479-482/mt CFR last week. Such increase has been connected to recovery in futures HRC prices in China, which by Friday, October 31 have gained RMB 52/mt ($7/mt) week on week, standing at RMB 3,308/mt ($467/mt), according to SteelOrbis data. At the same time, offers for SAE1006 HRC from India have been voiced at $497-505/mt CFR compared to $503-513/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers for ex-Indonesia HRC in Vietnam have settled at $495/mt CFR, down by $4/mt week on week, for January shipment. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as last week.
In Turkey, the week has been quiet for HRC business due to the mid-week national holidays. Due to a relatively sustained import scrap prices and an upward trend in China, the local HRC prices in Turkey have remained stable at $535-545/mt ex-works in workable levels and by $5/mt higher than that in terms of the official offers. Most of the mills still have December production for sale, while some have already proceeded to offer for January. On exports, Turkey is at $530-540/mt FOB, slightly down over the week due to the ongoing negotiations in the EU.
Import offers from China have been reported at $480/mt CFR for non-VAT material, $5/mt up over the week, while the regular offers are at $490-495/mt CFR, also slightly up from the previous levels. Some sources reported a 15,000-20,000 mt sale to a pipe-maker with no price disclosed, while the most recent offers for pipe-making breakdowns of HRC orders have been reported at $512-515/mt CFR. China is in the market to sell for December shipments.
In the UAE, buyers remained cautious about new imports after observing upward price movements from Chinese suppliers, driven by stronger futures prices during the week. Despite the firming trend across Asia, some Emirati buyers needing to replenish stocks chose to purchase from Japanese suppliers, who continued offering more competitive prices. As a result, Japanese mills concluded two separate deals which is around 50,000 mt of HRC in total this week at around $495/mt CFR, with offers now standing near $495-500/mt CFR for December shipment. Meanwhile, Chinese SS400 HRC offers increased to $500-525/mt CFR, up from $500-510/mt CFR last week, for November–December shipments. Some non-VAT traders, however, continued quoting lower levels of $490-500/mt CFR to maintain buying interest in a price-sensitive market. Indian suppliers kept offers stable at $515-525/mt CFR for November-December shipments, remaining the highest among key origins. However, these levels have seen limited buying activity as regional demand recovery remains sluggish.
European HRC producers have continued to target higher offer levels for January-delivery coils, with several mills, particularly in northern Europe, indicating they are already largely sold out for the remainder of 2025 allocations. Specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €610-640/mt ex-works for new orders for January deliveries, with most mills claiming to close order books for December deliveries. However, according to sources, while the tradable price levels for January delivery coils have been estimated at €600-610/mt ex-works, workable prices for December arrival have been still voiced at lower levels or at around €580-600/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the higher end of range week on week. Meanwhile, in Italy, indicative HRC offers from mills have settled at €610-615/mt ex-works for January delivery, against €590-610/mt ex-works for December delivery last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €580-600/mt ex-works compared to €560-580/mt ex-works last week. On the import side, despite ongoing challenges linked to CBAM compliance and safeguard constraints, EU buyers have managed to secure sizable volumes of ex-India and ex-Indonesia HRC at competitive prices, supporting purchasing activity and keeping import alternatives firmly in play. Indicative offers for import HRC in Europe have settled at €480-530/mt CFR. According to sources, some competitive Asian volumes have been booked this week. In particular, several deals for at least 50,000 mt in total of ex-India HRC have been signed at $575-580/mt CFR, which translates to around €495-500/mt CFR southern Europe, for November shipment. Besides, another sizable lot for ex-Indonesia HRC has been booked in southern Europe at $555/mt CFR for January shipment, which translates to around €478/mt CFR, compared to deal prices €465-475/mt CFR last week. According to sources, all deals for both ex-Indonesia and ex-India have CBAM costs on buyers’ account.