Global hot rolled coil (HRC) markets have shown mixed but generally cautious trends this week, as rising export offers from China have contrasted with persistently weak demand and growing pressure on prices in key regions. Chinese suppliers have continued pushing their export prices higher, supported by firmer domestic sentiment and higher futures prices, with both mills and traders raising their offers further during the week. At the same time, Indian suppliers have remained increasingly aggressive in overseas markets, shifting their focus toward exports amid continued pressure in the domestic market and encouraged by a number of successful recent sales, particularly to Vietnam and some destinations in the GCC region. Besides, Indonesian suppliers have also remained active with competitive offers and large-volume transactions reported in Vietnam. In Turkey, both domestic and export HRC prices have remained largely stable over the past week, though trading activity has continued to be relatively slow. The GCC HRC market has meanwhile seen rising offer levels from Asian suppliers, following the upward movement in ex-China prices and firmer sentiment among regional exporters. In North Africa, Algeria has continued targeting higher HRC export offers and has also been considering a possible increase in domestic HRC prices, supported by relatively healthy local demand and firmer international sentiment. Meanwhile, the European HRC market has remained under pressure, with domestic prices softening further despite continued attempts by local mills to support higher July offer levels. Weak real demand, slow spot activity and buyer resistance to higher prices have continued weighing on the market, while uncertainty surrounding safeguard measures and trade policy developments has also contributed to the cautious atmosphere across the EU market.
Ex-China HRC prices have increased further over the past week, with both mills and traders raising offers amid firmer sentiment in the domestic and export markets. The uptrend has been supported by improved local demand, a stronger HRC futures performance and the weakening of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, which has reduced pressure on exporters. In addition, leading producer Baosteel has announced a RMB 100/mt ($14.6/mt) increase in its June base prices and other producers have followed, while market sources said major mills have shown little willingness to lower export offers, with leading HRC prices remaining above $520/mt FOB for various destinations. More specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $520-540/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $530/mt FOB, up by $5/mt since the end of last week and up by $12.5/mt week on week. Besides, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced at around $518-525/mt FOB, versus $510/mt FOB reported last week.
At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been estimated at $515-520/mt FOB, versus $505-515/mt FOB at the end of last week. According to sources, this week, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam have remained extremely rare, with indicative offers with VAT for July shipments voiced at $530/mt CFR, up by $5/mt week on week. Besides, a deal for ex-China Q195 HRC has been reported at $515/mt FOB in Pakistan, according to sources. Offers for ex-Chinese Q195 HRC through traders to Turkey have been voiced at $570-572/mt CFR, up by at least $10/mt week on week. Furthermore, although most Chinese mills are still not issuing new export offers to Gulf buyers due to freight conditions and insurance coverage for vessels, offers from Chinese traders have appeared in the UAE market at around $585-595/mt CFR, up by $5/mt week on week, with the freight rate estimated at around $70/mt.
Vietnam’s import HRC market has remained under pressure this week, with fresh deals continuing to emerge at relatively low levels amid persistently sluggish demand and aggressive competition among foreign suppliers. In particular, Indian and Indonesian suppliers have secured orders in Vietnam at competitive prices, while buyers have maintained a cautious stance and have continued pushing for additional discounts. More specifically, following several deals signed for ex-India HRC at $585-590/mt CFR at the end of last week, market insiders have reported more deals signed at the same price levels this week. Besides, according to sources, offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam have remained mostly at around $590/mt CFR, down from the $610-615/mt CFR levels heard earlier last week, while bids from Vietnamese buyers have been reported at even lower levels of below $580/mt CFR. At the same time, Indonesian suppliers have continued competing actively in Vietnam. In particular, a deal for around 60,000 mt of ex-Indonesia SAE1006 HRC is reported to have been signed at $585/mt CFR Vietnam for August shipment, compared to indicative Indonesian offers at $590-592/mt CFR for July-August shipment heard this week. The SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has settled at $585-590/mt CFR Vietnam, compared to $590-610/mt CFR at the beginning of this week.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained largely stable over the past week, though some suppliers have managed to secure export sales to destinations such as Vietnam and the Middle East by offering more competitive prices. In Vietnam, Indian HRC has been heard at the most competitive levels among all foreign suppliers. More specifically, offers for ex-India HRC to the Middle East have been officially kept stable at $550-560/mt FOB, while there has been more optimism among sellers after alternative shipping routes have worked out, though with sellers having to adjust final sales prices to partially offset higher freight rates. According to the sources, two deals aggregating around 30,000 mt for delivery to GCC markets have been confirmed at a price of $540/mt FOB, the sources said. Furthermore, as reported by SteelOrbis earlier, a deal for 20,000 mt was concluded for delivery to Vietnam at $585/mt CFR and another cargo of a similar tonnage was also sold to Vietnam at $588-590/mt CFR during the past week, which translates to around $565-570/mt FOB. Meanwhile, offers submitted in Europe have been voiced at $600-620/mt FOB, which translates to around $680-700/mt CFR, down by $20/mt since last week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $540-620/mt FOB, down by $10-20/mt week on week.
In the GCC, HRC import prices have continued to show an upward trend this week, mainly driven by firmer Chinese export indications and persistently high freight costs, though market sentiment across the region has remained cautious overall. Buyers in the UAE have continued to avoid large-volume bookings due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding logistics and shipment routes, while Saudi Arabia has maintained relatively healthier activity levels, supported by domestic market participation and ongoing offers from Hadeed. Meanwhile, market sources have started to report some Indian origin bookings to GCC destinations, although some of this activity is still only heard at the level of rumors. Under these conditions, Chinese HRC offers to the UAE for end-of-June and July shipments have risen to $585-595/mt CFR, indicating an increase of around $5/mt week on week. For Saudi Arabia, Chinese suppliers are currently heard to be offering at $615-620/mt CFR Jeddah for June and July shipment cargoes. On the domestic side, Hadeed’s HRC offers have remained largely unchanged at around $740/mt CPT for June shipments. In addition, Indian origin material is said to have been booked to GCC destinations at around $535-540/mt FOB for approximately 30,000 mt in total, while another 30,000 mt cargo for Qatar has reportedly been under negotiation since late last week, though no final confirmation has emerged in the market so far.
In North Africa, local HRC prices in both Algeria and Egypt have stabilized at DZD 101,500/mt ($643/mt) ex-works and EGP 39,000/mt ($647/mt) ex-works, while demand remains moderate. While Egypt has been refraining from active exports due to certain production issues and better local sales, Algeria has increased its HRC export offers for June shipment from $700/mt to $715-720/mt FOB. Import offers for HRC from China have been reported at $620/mt CFR Algeria (for thin material) and at $570-575/mt CFR base in Egypt. The sanctioned Russian HRC seller has started July production offerings to the MENA region at $560/mt CFR, up from $525-535/mt CFR in the latest sales. The mill’s allocation will be most probably limited in this round, given better domestic and regional demand and recently lively HRC sales from Russia to Iran.
European HRC prices have moved down further over the past week across both northern and southern Europe, since weak demand, sufficient stock levels and growing pressure from lower import prices have continued to weigh on the market. While mills have been attempting to maintain relatively firm official offers for July delivery, achievable transaction levels have declined further amid limited buying interest and cautious sentiment ahead of the expected safeguard quota adjustments. In northern Europe, mills’ official offers have been reported at around €705/mt ex-works for June delivery and approximately €715/mt ex-works for July delivery, compared to target offers of €715-735/mt ex-works reported last week. However, tradable prices have fallen further to €670-690/mt ex-works, versus workable levels of €680-700/mt ex-works heard previously, while some deals are reported to have been concluded at around €680/mt ex-works. In Italy, official HRC offers from mills have been estimated at €690-705/mt ex-works for June-July delivery, compared to around €705/mt ex-works (€720/mt delivered) reported last week. According to sources, tradable prices in the Italian market have now settled at €670-685/mt ex-works, down from achievable levels of €680-700/mt ex-works heard previously, reflecting continued pressure from subdued consumption and cautious purchasing strategies. Most import offers on DDP basis have been reported at around €640-650/mt DDP southern Europe, down from indicative buyer targets of €660-670/mt DDP mentioned last week. Meanwhile, indicative offers for import HRC on CFR basis have settled at €590-650/mt levels, down by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.