The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has showed mixed dynamics this week, with stability prevailing in several regions but discounts emerging in others amid ongoing competitive pressures. In China, export offers for HRC have remained largely stable, though traders were heard to be providing discounts to secure sales. A similar trend has been noted for India, where mills managed to conclude deals at lower levels in Asia and the Gulf, even as their offers for Europe held steady. In Vietnam, import prices for HRC have edged slightly higher, though trading activity remained sluggish as buyers exercised caution. Japanese suppliers, meanwhile, have managed to expand sales across Asia and the Middle East, but only by conceding on prices in an environment of heightened competition. In the Gulf region, buyers showed a stronger preference for Indian-origin material, although resistance to higher prices continued to cap buying interest. Meanwhile, in Europe, domestic HRC prices have stayed firm in both northern markets and in Italy. Mills have continued to resist downward pressure, even as import activity has remained muted due to quota exhaustion and lingering CBAM-related concerns.
In China, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have moved to $480-490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $485/mt FOB, the same as last week, while offers from smaller mills have remained at around $475-485/mt FOB. The tradable price for ex-China HRC from traders has settled at $470-480/mt FOB, depending on the destination, compared to $475-478/mt FOB last week. In particular, ex-China Q235/SS400 HRC, 1,900-2,000 mm, offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $497-500/mt CFR for November shipment, compared to $493-500/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers for Q195 HRC, 3,000 mm, have settled at $490/mt CFR for October shipment. Meanwhile, Chinese offers to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at $510/mt CFR UAE, mainly the same as last week, though a few deals are reported to have been done at $500-505/mt CFR UAE, compared to 510/mt CFR last week. As of September 19, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,374/mt ($474/mt), increasing by RMB 10/mt ($1.4/mt) since September 12, while increasing by 0.18 percent compared to the previous trading day, September 18.
In India, HRC export prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, though some downward pressure has been observed in discounted deals across Asia and the Middle East. In contrast, offers for ex-India HRC in Europe are about $50/mt higher than in the Gulf region and Asia, while Indian suppliers still have room to secure additional contracts as only half of their July-September EU quota has been filled so far.
Specifically, official offers from large Indian mills have been kept unchanged in the range of $505-515/mt FOB in the Middle East, which translates to around $535-540/mt CFR UAE, the same as last week, while a few offers are still reported higher at $540-550/mt CFR UAE. However, the sources said that a few trades were confirmed in the region after both buyers and sellers reached a compromise in bridging the bid-offer gap, indicating an improvement in demand but buyers are still resisting accepting higher prices. According to market insiders, Indian steelmakers have also returned with new offers to the Vietnamese market. Specifically, offers have been voiced at $515-519/mt CFR Vietnam, while a deal for around 30,000 mt was reported at $507/mt CFR last week, for November shipment. This means ex-India HRC offers have settled at around $495-500/mt FOB in Vietnam. In the meantime, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have been voiced at $605-610/mt CFR, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, which translates to around $550-555/mt FOB.
Import prices of HRC in Vietnam have posted a slight increase this week, driven primarily by higher offers from Chinese suppliers in line with the rebound in futures prices. Meanwhile, other foreign suppliers of SEA1006 HRC, including Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India, have so far applied only minimal upward corrections. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $507-510/mt CFR Vietnam, compared with $505-507/mt CFR last week. Offers for ex-Indonesia 3,000 mm SAE1006 HRC have settled at $507-508/mt CFR for end-of-November shipment, compared to $505-510/mt CFR last week, though a number of sources said that customers still aim to sign new deals at lower levels, bidding at around $498-500/mt CFR levels. Meanwhile, ex-China offers for Q235/SS400 HRC, 1,900-2,000 mm, in Vietnam have been voiced at $497-500/mt CFR for November shipment, compared to $493-500/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers for 3,000 mm Q195 HRC have settled at $490/mt CFR for October shipment.
In the meantime, ex-Japan HRC sales have been reported across multiple regions over the past week, with new deals concluded at slightly lower levels than prevailing offers, reflecting persistent competitive pressure from regional Asian suppliers. A deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC has been signed in Vietnam at $512/mt CFR for November shipment, while most Japanese offers have been reported at $525/mt CFR and above. Furthermore, at least two deals from two Japanese suppliers have been signed in Pakistan this week at around $496-498/mt CFR for 30,000-35,000 mt to one Pakistani steelmaker, while another Pakistani mill is reported to have booked around 21,000-23,000 mt of HRC at slightly above $500/mt CFR. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Japanese HRC has found some acceptance, but competition remains fierce as Chinese suppliers actively target the region with lower-priced cargoes. This has compelled Japanese mills to adjust their achievable deal levels in order to maintain sales momentum. Specifically, a deal for 15,000 mt has been signed at $505-510/mt CFR UAE for end-of-November shipment this week.
In the GCC, HRC import activity has picked up significantly this week, as buyers and suppliers have reached common ground on pricing, resulting in substantial volumes being purchased. While GCC buyers have been able to secure deals at their targeted lower levels, most HRC suppliers remain reluctant to make further reductions in their main offers for the coming weeks. According to sources, Qatari and Emirati buyers have booked approximately 8,000 mt and 15,000 mt of HRC, respectively, at $500/mt FOB and $490/mt FOB, translating to $530-535/mt CFR and $520-525/mt CFR. Despite these slightly lower deal levels, Indian suppliers’ general offers have remained firm at $535-540/mt CFR for late October and November shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers have kept their offers unchanged at $500-515/mt CFR, although some lots are reported to have been sold to UAE re-rollers at $505/mt CFR for October shipment. Similarly, Japanese suppliers closed a deal with Emirati buyers for around 10,000-15,000 mt at $505-515/mt CFR, while their general offers have remained slightly higher at $510-515/mt CFR, for November shipments in particular. In addition, Taiwanese suppliers have re-entered the market this week and are reported to have sold around or over 10,000 mt of HRC at $510/mt CFR for November shipment.
In Turkey, HRC prices have not changed much over the past week, despite lower scrap prices and still rather moderate domestic demand overall. Local HRC prices are still at $550-565/mt ex-works, with slightly higher levels also considered possible, though unworkable. Sources report small and medium-sized deals at $550-555/mt ex-works, while some buyers are trying to exert pressure for further discounts. Export offers are at $535-545/mt FOB for November shipments, with some deals closed to Ukrainian buyers at the upper end of the range, while much lower levels are reported to have been closed to Slovakia. Import offers from China have settled at $511-520/mt CFR this week for November shipment, with the highest bids heard at $505/mt CFR. As a result, no deals have been reported. Russia has traded up to 20,000-25,000 mt of November shipment HRC at $515-520/mt CFR, slightly below the initial offers. Egyptian and Malaysian HRC offers remain indicative at $550/mt and $535/mt CFR, respectively, sources report.
The European HRC market has remained largely unchanged, with domestic prices stable in both northern Europe and Italy. Specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €600-630/mt ex-works for new orders for October and November deliveries, mainly the same as last week, while offers from Italian mills have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works for October-delivery HRC. However, the tradable price level has remained at €570-580/mt ex-works levels in the north and at €540-550/mt ex-works in Italy, with no sizable deals reported this week. Import activity has remained muted, as uncertainty surrounding CBAM obligations and quota restrictions have kept buyers cautious. Indicative offers for imported HRC have been reported in the range of €500-540/mt CFR, depending on the origin, up by €15/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Indonesia HRC offers in southern Europe which have been voiced at €500-510/mt CFR levels, compared to deal prices at €485/mt CFR last week and offers at €490/mt CFR. Meanwhile, the higher end of the range corresponds to offers for ex-Turkey HRC at €520-540/mt CFR, duty included, the same as last week.