This week, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has presented a mixed picture, with regional differences in pricing dynamics and demand. In China, export prices for HRC have held steady, supported by a firmer local market, although futures have failed to stage a recovery, reflecting continuing market uncertainty. India has resumed HRC imports from Russia, attracted by competitive offers that undercut Chinese prices. Meanwhile, export offers from India have remained mostly stable, with only minor reductions targeting European buyers, though these achieved limited success in concluding deals. Vietnam has seen a slight decline in import HRC prices due to softer Chinese export offers and increased resistance from local buyers. In the GCC region, buyers have continued to import actively despite sluggish domestic demand, maintaining steady interest in foreign material. At the same time, Turkey's HRC prices have remained relatively stable across all market segments, although domestic demand has stayed weak, while in Europe HRC prices have faced downward pressure as subdued demand has persisted and cheaper offers from Turkish suppliers have gained traction.
Ex-China hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained mostly stable in the past week, supported by a slight rise in Chinese domestic prices. Export offers from major mills have held at $465–485/mt FOB, with deals mostly at the lower end. Smaller mills have offered down to $455/mt FOB. Tradable prices have softened slightly to $455–457/mt FOB. In Vietnam, offers for July shipment have dropped to $468–471/mt CFR. Middle East offers have remained stable, though some traders have cited lower levels. A modest rise in China’s domestic HRC prices and a cut in the five-year loan prime rate have helped lift sentiment. However, futures prices have declined as seasonal demand slowed.
India has resumed hot rolled coil (HRC) imports from Russia after a long break, with notable volumes booked at prices below Chinese offers. Around 40,000 mt of Russian HRC with BIS certification was sold at $470–475/mt CFR, while another unconfirmed deal is reported to have been closed at $460/mt CFR. In contrast, recent ex-China HRC deals were done at $480–485/mt CFR, highlighting a shift in India's sourcing preferences driven by cost competitiveness.
In the export segment, however, Indian HRC offers have remained largely unchanged this week, but trading activity has stayed muted due to weak demand and strong competition, particularly from Chinese suppliers. Major Indian mills have maintained prices at around $520/mt FOB for key markets, while offers to the Middle East have reached as high as $540–550/mt CFR, well above competing Chinese offers at $495/mt CFR, prompting buyers to hesitate. In Europe, some Indian mills have trimmed offers by $10/mt to $580/mt FOB, with limited success. Despite some gains in ex-China offers, global buyer sentiment has remained cautious. With subdued international demand and better margins in the domestic market, Indian mills are focusing more on local sales, a trend expected to continue into the next quarter.
Vietnam's import hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have continued to ease this week amid lower offers from China and cautious buyer sentiment. Ex-China Q235 HRC offers for July shipment have dropped to $468–470/mt CFR, down from $475/mt CFR last week, while Q195 HRC has been offered at $450/mt CFR for late June. For SAE1006 HRC, ex-China offers have remained at $490/mt CFR, though demand has been limited due to antidumping duties. Other Asian suppliers have maintained stable pricing: Indonesian SAE1006 offers have stood at $510-515/mt CFR, while unconfirmed reports pointed to deals for Malaysian cargoes at $495/mt CFR and Japanese SAE1006 at $490–495/mt CFR. Reflecting the weaker market, SteelOrbis has revised its reference price for SAE1006 HRC imports to $490–495/mt CFR, narrowing from last week’s $490–510/mt CFR.
In the GCC, although domestic demand remains slow owing to the coming holiday and the summer season, import activity has remained robust, and Emirati and Saudi buyers have lately expressed an interest in Japanese and Chinese materials. Accordingly, Saudi and Emirati buyers purchased 10,000-25,000 mt of HRC from Japan at $505/mt CFR for June shipment, respectively. Meanwhile, ex-Japan offers for June shipments have increased by $5/mt to $510/mt CFR to the UAE. Another sale has been reported by Emirati purchasers, who recently bought some A36 grade HRC from China at $508/mt CFR. While offers for SS400 grade HRC have remained stable week on week at around $490-495/mt CFR for shipments in July, with certain Chinese suppliers continuing to offer discounts of around $485/mt CFR, though no deals have been done. On the other hand, Indian suppliers have continued to insist on higher levels than other suppliers, at around $540-550/mt CFR, stable week on week.
HRC pricing in Turkey has been largely stable this week despite rising scrap prices, and slower demand, particularly from the export side, has been preventing mills from raising prices. In particular, the latest export prices have been reported at $540-560/mt FOB base, which translates to €530-545/mt CFR in the EU according to the latest workable levels, down around €10/mt over the past week. In the domestic market, Turkish mills are offering at $565-575/mt ex-works base, with levels $5/mt higher and lower also available in the market. The cargoes are for July deliveries. Import offers from China have been mainly standing at $485-493/mt CFR this week and the workable level is considered to be $480/mt CFR and below. Moreover, some market players have been reporting that the pressure on non-VAT trade has increased. An Egyptian mill has sold a small additional volume of HRC to Turkey at $560/mt CFR, while Russian mills are still offering at $470-495/mt CFR depending on the mill. Malaysian and Japanese suppliers have maintained their offers for HRC to Turkey at $555/mt and $520/mt CFR, both on CFR basis. Taiwanese sellers, according to sources, are at $540-545/mt CFR, which is not considered workable.
Russian suppliers are now offering June-July production HRC for exports, being active in several destinations. Although domestic flats prices are much higher than export prices, Russian suppliers maintain their presence in the overseas markets since local demand is not quite enough to absorb all the supply. As a result, lately, up to 40,000 mt of HRC were traded to India by one of the Russian mills at $470-475/mt CFR, while another Russian seller has traded 30,000-35,000 mt of small coils to the same market at $460-470/mt CFR, sources reported. In Turkey, sanctioned material from Russia is available at $470-485/mt CFR, while non-sanctioned material is available at $490-495/mt CFR and up to $500/mt CFR. Such a level might be considered workable, since the price is close to the Chinese prices which is the lowest in the market. In addition, along with Egypt, which is offering at $560/mt CFR Turkey, Russia is one of few origins with close geographical proximity to Turkey compared to supplies from Asia.
HRC prices in Europe have continued to decline this week, driven by sluggish demand and intensified competition from lower-cost imports, especially from Turkey. Buyers remain hesitant amid expectations of further price drops, resulting in subdued trading activity. Local HRC prices in northern Europe for July deliveries have fallen to €635–645/mt ex-works, down from €660–680/mt last week. Tradable levels are now estimated at €620–640/mt ex-works. In Italy, domestic offers are largely stable at €620/mt ex-works, but workable prices have slipped to €600–605/mt, with reports of some deals nearing €590/mt ex-works. Import offers remain steady at €520–580/mt CFR, depending on the source. Turkish HRC has been widely booked, with 20,000–25,000 mt sold to Italy at €540–550/mt CFR, duty paid, and new workable levels reaching as low as €530/mt CFR. In Spain, Turkish offers range at €540-560/mt CFR. Indonesian material has been traded at €580/mt CFR Spain, while offers from other Indonesian mills were reported at €520/mt CFR. With no significant improvement in fundamentals expected, the European HRC market is likely to face continued pressure and cautious activity in the coming weeks.