The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been largely quiet this week, with limited activity across most regions. In Asia, trading has slowed significantly due to the Lunar New Year holidays in China, alongside additional holidays in Vietnam, keeping buyers and sellers mostly on the sidelines. Market participants expect activity to gradually resume next week as Asian players return. In Europe, HRC prices have been broadly stable, reflecting balanced supply and cautious buying interest. However, ArcelorMittal’s latest sharp price increase has reinforced mills’ firm pricing stance and has continued to shape sentiment, even as real demand has remained moderate. Turkish domestic HRC prices have risen further during the week despite slow local demand. Mills have continued the upward trend of their offers, supported by firm raw material costs and tighter import competition, although trading volumes have remained limited. Russian suppliers have been offering small volumes for March-April shipment. The current global environment has indirectly supported their sales, as reduced Asian market participation has shifted attention toward Europe. In North Africa, Egypt has returned to the export market, selling limited HRC volumes into Europe and adding another supply option for regional buyers.
In Asia, the HRC market has been largely quiet, with activity in China and Vietnam subdued due to the Lunar New Year holidays and related shutdowns. In China, domestic trading has been virtually absent, with no real spot activity reported and price indications largely nominal. In Vietnam, the holiday period has also weighed on the market, slowing buying interest and limiting import discussions. Market participants expect business activity to gradually resume next week as buyers return and mills reassess pricing.
Ex-India HRC export prices have shown a firmer trend over the past week, supported by stronger domestic demand in India and limited seller interest in lower-priced bids across key overseas markets. More specifically, ex-India offers in the Middle East have been reported in the range of $495-500/mt FOB, up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, though the sellers have continued not responding to lower bids from customers as most mills are focused on robust domestic sales volumes and better margins. According to sources, offers for ex-India HRC in the UAE have been voiced at $520-525/mt CFR, versus $510-525/mt CFR last week. At the same time, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare, with indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe reported at $610-625/mt CFR, compared to $600/mt CFR and above last week, which translates to around $555-570/mt FOB, up by $5-20/mt week on week. According to sources, no fresh deals have been reported in the spot market. However, one of the leading European producers is reported to have concluded several large contracts for around 100,000-150,000 mt of HRC with its affiliate in India at around €500/mt CFR, excluding CBAM costs. Furthermore, this week no offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced in Vietnam due to the holiday in the country. At the same time, Indian suppliers have increasingly prioritized higher-margin value-added products and contract sales, reflecting improving pricing discipline and tighter export availability. The SteelOrbis reference prices for ex-India HRC have settled at $495-570/mt FOB, up by $15-20/mt week on week.
European HRC market sentiments have remained cautious this week, though ArcelorMittal’s sharp increase in offer prices has reinforced mills’ pricing stance and reduced their willingness to grant discounts. While some market participants had expected other mills to follow with increases, most producers have kept their offer levels largely unchanged, leaving buyers hesitant. More specifically, at the beginning of this week leading European producer ArcelorMittal increased its HRC offers for April delivery by around €50/mt to €750/mt delivered or around €730/mt ex-works in northern Europe. However, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for April delivery, are still estimated at €685-700/mt ex-works, the same as last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €650-660/mt ex-works levels. In Italy, offers from mills are estimated at €660-680/mt ex-works, mainly for April delivery, mostly the same as last week, while the tradable price level is estimated at €640-650/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, activity in the import segment has also remained selective, with buyers closely monitoring safeguard developments and CBAM-related costs, which continue to weigh on booking decisions. Indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €525-565/mt CFR, versus €505-547/mt CFR last week, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range since the beginning of the week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-India HRC offers at $620-625/mt CFR, compared to $600-625/mt CFR last week, which translates to €525-530/mt CFR southern Europe. Furthermore, HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €620-650/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €20/mt on the higher end of the range week on week, with a few deals reported to have been signed at €620-640/mt DDP during past weeks. Offers for ex-Japan HRC have this week been reported at €640-650/mt DDP southern Europe through traders.
In Turkey, HRC prices have settled at $580-600/mt ex-works in most offers, up from $565-570/mt ex-works available earlier. The mills are mainly offering for May deliveries, but some volumes for April are also available. The high offered levels are not workable for the moment since end-user demand is quite low, and re-rollers and stockists in particular are having trouble selling material. The mills, however, are citing high scrap prices and their previous significant HRC sales volumes to Europe as the main reasons for the uptrend in local HRC prices. Export offers are mainly at $570-580/mt FOB, but some mills have already started voicing $600/mt FOB for May shipments. Europe seems to have completed HRC purchases from Turkey for the second quarter quota period and is in the market to buy for the subsequent quota period. Import offers are scarce this week due to the absence of China. Egypt is going to offer next week and is expected to increase its offer levels. Russia is offering at $470-480/mt CFR for sanctioned material and at $515-520/mt CFR for non-sanctioned material, while some buyers are still counting on $510/mt CFR levels.
In North Africa, local HRC prices in Egypt and Algeria are stable at high levels - at $645/mt ex-works ($1 = EGP 47.6) and $625/mt ex-works ($1 = EGP 130), while demand remains moderate. As regards exports, the Egyptian mill has returned to the export markets, taking advantage of its short lead time and the absence of a quota in Europe for Egyptian HRC. As a result, around 15,000 mt of HRC were sold to the UK at $555/mt FOB, while in the EU, according to international traders, deals were closed at $600-610/mt FOB minimum.
Russian mills remain present in the export markets and, moreover, their price positions are supported by the limited presence of Asian suppliers in the market and the generally strong situation on the raw materials side, in the scrap segment in particular. Export offers for sanctioned material have been reported at $430-435/mt FOB Baltic for April shipments and at around $450-460/mt FOB Black Sea. One of the Russian mills has recently traded around 40,000-50,000 mt for April shipment at $480/mt CFR MENA, though some GCC region-based customers have reported levels $5-10/mt lower. Non-sanctioned Russian HRC is mainly offered to Turkey at $515-520/mt CFR or around $490/mt FOB Black Sea, sources estimate. The non-sanctioned mill is expected to sell successfully for April shipments. In the local Russian market, the situation has not improved in terms of demand and, moreover, the outlook for the main consuming industries is quite dull. Russia’s central bank has cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5 percent, which has not helped much in view of the financial issues of mills and industries. Local HRC prices from mills are at around $630-635/mt CPT, while retail HRS offers are at around $580-585/mt ex-warehouse, which reflects a profound market imbalance.
In the GCC, HRC import activity has slowed this week as Chinese suppliers remain largely absent due to the holiday period and the start of Ramadan has dampened regional demand, keeping buyers cautious. Chinese SS400 offers have been absent this week, after previously being heard at around $490-500/mt CFR UAE, for March shipment. Japanese suppliers have also remained quiet, as most of their March shipment volumes are already sold, with April price announcements expected soon. Russian offers have been reported at $470-480/mt CFR for March-April shipments, though no fresh deals have been confirmed, with a clearer price direction expected once China returns. Meanwhile, Indian suppliers have raised their offers by about $10/mt to $520-525/mt CFR UAE for March shipment, supported by stronger domestic and EU sales.