European hot rolled coil (HRC) market sentiments have remained cautious this week, though ArcelorMittal’s sharp increase in offer prices has reinforced mills’ pricing stance and reduced their willingness to grant discounts. While some market participants had expected other mills to follow with increases, most producers have kept their offer levels largely unchanged, leaving buyers hesitant. Activity in the import segment has also remained selective, with buyers closely monitoring safeguard developments and CBAM-related costs, which continue to weigh on booking decisions.
As SteelOrbis reported earlier at the beginning of this week leading European producer ArcelorMittal increased its HRC offers for April delivery by around €50/mt to €750/mt delivered or around €730/mt ex-works in northern Europe. However, even though most market insiders have been expecting since then that other producers would follow suit, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for April delivery, are still estimated at €685-700/mt ex-works, the same as last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €650-660/mt ex-works levels.
In Italy, offers from mills are estimated at €660-680/mt ex-works, mainly for April delivery, mostly the same as last week, while the tradable price level is estimated at €640-650/mt ex-works.
Meanwhile, in the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €525-565/mt CFR, versus €505-547/mt CFR last week, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range since the beginning of the week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-India HRC offers at $620-625/mt CFR, compared to $600-625/mt CFR last week, which translates to €525-530/mt CFR southern Europe. According to sources, no new spot transactions have been reported for ex-India HRC this week. However, one of the leading European producers is reported to have secured several large-volume contracts totalling around 100,000-150,000 mt of HRC with its affiliate in India at €500/mt CFR, excluding CBAM.
HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €620-650/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €20/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. A deal for ex-Indonesia HRC has been signed at €620/mt DDP southern Europe, through traders this week. Besides, according to sources, an ex-Algeria HRC deal for around 30,000 mt is reported to have been signed at around €640/mt DDP Spain two weeks ago, while this week indicative offers for ex-Algeria HRC have been voiced at €630-640/mt DDP Italy and around €640-650/mt DDP Spain. Furthermore, following a deal for around 30,000-40,000 mt of ex-Saudi Arabia HRC signed at around €550/mt CFR two weeks ago, this week no fresh offers have been voiced so far.
Meanwhile, although several deals totaling around 20,000 mt of ex-Turkey HRC have been concluded through traders this week at about €630-650/mt DDP Spain, offers from Turkish suppliers have been less frequent in the EU due to the start of Ramadan.
Offers for ex-Japan HRC have been reported at €640-650/mt DDP southern Europe, through traders this week.
“Some buyers have started including special clauses in new import booking contracts, stipulating that cargoes should be customs-cleared only after the safeguard quota volumes are announced for individual countries of origin,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
Notably, the draft proposal published in October 2025 disclosed only the overall allocations, with the annual HRC (category 1) quota proposed to decrease from 7.7 million mt to 5.2 million mt. Country-specific quota details remain unavailable.
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