The Romanian flat steel spot market has moved into a wait-and-see mood this week after the new EU quota situation became clearer. Although prices have remained stable for now, the market tone has become more cautious, with both buyers and sellers trying to understand how the new quota period will affect pricing in the coming weeks. While some upward expectations are now being heard in the wider European market, demand in Romania remains weak and sales activity has almost stopped. Buyers are not rushing to book new material, while sellers are less willing to give discounts compared to previous weeks. Market sources say prices are likely to move up, but the size of any increase is still uncertain.
In the domestic spot market, hot rolled sheet prices are still heard at around €780-790/mt ex-warehouse, while cold rolled sheet prices remain at €880-900/mt ex-warehouse, unchanged week on week. However, unlike in previous weeks, discounts are no longer considered easily achievable, as sellers have become more cautious after the latest quota-related developments and prefer to wait before revising their official levels.
The import segment has also remained quiet this week, with no significant bookings reported. Buying interest was already limited because of weak local demand, sufficient stocks and the summer slowdown, but the latest quota announcement has added another reason for buyers to stay on the sidelines. Market participants say Turkish allocation under the new quota period has attracted particular attention, as several sellers believe Turkish mills may still have enough room to continue selling into the EU market and fill part of the gap left by other origins.
“The market is waiting to see. Nobody understands the situation clearly, so they prefer to wait first. Turkish mills have a very big quota, so they may close all gaps and the price increase may be very limited. Nobody is buying now. All players are waiting,” a Turkish exporter commented.
As a result, Ukrainian offers have remained stable this week, with HRS still heard at around €760-770/mt CPT Romania and CRS at €850-860/mt CPT Romania. However, Ukrainian material is now seen to be at a critical point in Romania, as it is frequently compared with Turkish alternatives. Serbian origin HRS offers have also remained unchanged at around €885/mt CPT Romania. Meanwhile, Turkish HRC offers have declined this week to around €540-560/mt CFR Romania, compared to €550-575/mt CFR last week, mainly due to weak demand and lower scrap prices in Turkey. However, the lower levels have not led to an immediate return in buying interest, as the third quarter quota is already exhausted and exceeded. For this reason, Romanian buyers are expected to wait for the fourth quarter quota period before considering new bookings from Turkey. Market sources say Turkish material may remain workable if offers stay competitive and additional quota- and CBAM-related costs do not make the final price too high.
