Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) have remained stable at high levels over the past week, with mills adjusting their sales strategies in line with regional demand dynamics and expectations for the new fiscal year. While discussions have resumed in several key outlets, buyers remain selective, and the flow of deals has been limited amid regulatory constraints and competitive pressure from alternative suppliers.
More specifically, ex-India offers in the Middle East have been reported in the range of $495-500/mt FOB, the same as last week. Offers for ex-India HRC in the UAE have been voiced at $520-525/mt CFR. At the same time, according to sources, one large mill is heard to have concluded a deal for a small tonnage for delivery to the UAE at around $510/mt CFR. However, this deal price has been considered “too low” and has not been confirmed by the time of publication.
“We believe ex-India price adjustments are primarily focused on May shipment bookings, as sellers prepare fresh export allocations and pricing outlooks for the new 2026-27 fiscal year,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
In the meantime, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare, with indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe reported at $620-625/mt CFR, compared to $610-625/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $565-570/mt FOB, up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. Market sources pointed to restricted EU quota availability and ongoing CBAM-related pressure as key structural headwinds, compounded by strong competition from other supplying regions. Many participants believe that current offer levels reflect mills’ attempts to probe the market direction rather than secure substantial volumes in concluded transactions.
Sources said Indian mills are benchmarking their offers against recent price hikes by European flat steel producers. “Despite some negotiations, uncertainty persists over whether transactions will materialize amid tariff constraints and unresolved cost-sharing between sellers and end-users,” an Indian trader told SteelOrbis.
“Rising local prices in Europe do offer a window but Indian sellers will not adjust prices too much to conclude deals,” another trader said.
Furthermore, Vietnamese customers are reported to have returned from the holidays this week. Offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC have been heard at $495/mt CFR, the same as two weeks ago or at around $475/mt FOB, while bids have been reported at around $490/mt CFR.
Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $475-570/mt FOB, compared to $495-570/mt FOB last week. However, this does not indicate a downward trend, as the lower end of the range reflects offers to Vietnam, which were absent last week due to holidays.
