Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have faced growing pressure over the past week, as suppliers have increasingly adjusted their export strategies in response to softer global market conditions, weakening demand, and intensified competition. While official offer levels have remained relatively stable, market sources reported that a number of mills have been willing to negotiate discounts to secure orders, resulting in lower deal prices in some cases. At the same time, declining prices in competing markets and ongoing logistical challenges have continued to weigh on sentiment, prompting buyers to seek additional concessions and limiting the scope for price increases.
More specifically, ex-India HRC prices have been officially reported at highs in the range of $550-560/mt FOB for the Middle East, while a few of the deals that “matured and were confirmed” over the past week were concluded at significant discounts as sellers had to adjust contract sales prices to compensate buyers for higher logistical and shipping costs.
Last week, information trickling in indicated that an aggregate of about 50,000-55,000 mt was under active sales negotiations for delivery to buyers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. However, sources confirmed that deals were successfully concluded for about 20,000-30,000 mt, which, although lower than the volumes under negotiation, improved sentiment. However, it was pointed out that although the two mills which confirmed the sales have not disclosed details, market sources claimed that the aggregate average sales price was in the lower range of $510-520/mt FOB.
An official with a large eastern India-based integrated mill, not currently active in exports, said that buyers in the Gulf region are moderately interested in imports, but are unwilling to accept high prices, particularly after the softening of prices in China and given the availability of multiple options.
He said that demands for discounts were non-negotiable, which Indian sellers were expected either to accept or to walk away from the deal. The discounts, he added, were imperative for buyers to partially compensate for extended shipping and delivery routes avoiding conflict zones in the Middle East.
“We have heard of a few export trades. But the prices we hear are also very low against the rising production costs of local mills. These sales are not sustainable. Declining ex-China prices will also aggravate competition,” an affiliate of Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
Meanwhile, offers submitted in Europe have been voiced at $600-610/mt FOB, down by $10/mt week on week, which translates to around $680-690/mt CFR. At the same time, it is worth noting that by mid-May Indian suppliers had already fully utilized their April-June 2026 quota of 225,305 mt, meaning that any new bookings are expected to fall under the next quota period.
Furthermore, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $570-575/mt CFR, down by $10/mt since the beginning of last week, which translates to an HRC FOB price of approximately $540-545/mt.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $510-610/mt FOB, compared to $520-620/mt FOB last week, amid negotiations for discounted sales reported in the Middle East at the lower end of the range, while offer prices in Europe and Vietnam have also been estimated to be at least $10/mt lower this week.
“Some mills are submitting offers in Europe at $600-630/mt FOB. But quota and CBAM restrictions will prevent any immediate deals. Overall, Indian exports will remain a low-key affair for local mills,” another source said.
