Ex-China HRC prices kept range-bound by limited trade

Chinese HRC exports have been relatively quiet this week, with limited trading activity observed. Although domestic HRC prices and HRC futures prices in China have recorded slight upticks, export prices offered by Chinese suppliers have remained largely stable week on week. In addition, low-priced non-VAT offers are absent from the market, as they have largely disappeared since last week following the introduction of export licensing requirements for certain steel products, including HRC, which are set to be implemented from January 2026.

Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $465-490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt FOB, up by $5/mt week on week.

At the same time, tradable prices for Chinese SS400 HRC have settled at $455-465/mt FOB, the same as last week. In particular, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam have been voiced at around $480/mt CFR, for January shipment, mainly the same as at the end of last week.

Meanwhile, Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have remained stable at around at $485-505/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier. Besides, Chinese Q195 HRC offers to Turkey have been estimated at $500-502/mt CFR for late January-February shipment, from $492-500/mt CFR last week.

“The Chinese market remains stable, although demand is soft during the winter season, and overall market fundamentals are unchanged. Consumption continues at a slow pace, while occasional capacity cuts help keep prices stable,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.

“The export market is also sluggish. Some mills have released more volumes for the Asian market at comparatively lower prices in order to complete their 2025 export commitments. However, export licenses have not yet been issued, and port conditions remain strict regarding early cargo declarations,” he added.

In the meantime, average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have edged up compared to the previous week amid increasing HRC futures prices. In particular, domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,300-3,410/mt ($467-483/mt) ex-warehouse on December 23, with the average price level RMB 17/mt ($2.4/mt) higher compared to that recorded on December 16, according to SteelOrbis’ data. 

The third round of declines in coke prices has been implemented as of December 22, weakening the support for HRC prices from the cost side. Meanwhile, iron ore prices have been at relatively high levels, while scrap prices have been stable, bolstering HRC prices to a certain degree. Recently, commodity prices have moved up significantly, providing some support for the steel market. Market sentiments have been stable, with the lack of a specific trend, signaling that HRC prices might fluctuate within a limited range in the coming week.

As of December 23, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,281/mt ($465/mt), increasing by RMB 35/mt ($5/mt) or 1.1 percent since December 16, while rising by 0.21 percent compared to the previous trading day, December 22. 

$1 = RMB 7.0602