According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2023-2024/Q1 2023 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), automotive output in the EU increased for the second consecutive quarter by 20.7 percent year on year in the third quarter last year, following a moderate rise of 1.6 percent recorded in the previous quarter.
According to EUROFER, despite the increases recorded over the second and the third quarter of 2022, output in the EU automotive sector remains well below the pre-pandemic levels, and even below the pre-2019 recession levels. Ongoing disruptions on the supply side, in particular the shortage of semiconductors, as well as the unprecedented hike in energy prices, went on taking a considerable toll on the automotive industry during 2022. This situation also contributed to continued depressed demand and consumer uncertainty. Supply chain issues and war-related disruptions, coupled with low consumer confidence and squeezed incomes due to high inflation and war-related economic uncertainty, have continued to weigh on vehicle output.
However, according to EUROFER, in 2022 the automotive sector will see growth of 2.7 percent in output, while the previous outlook pointed to a drop of 1.7 percent, thanks to positive developments from the second to the fourth quarter. Growth is expected to continue in 2023, albeit more moderately, by 1.1 percent, provided that war-related disruptions and uncertainty will ease substantially as a result of an improved economic and industrial outlook. However, output levels will remain rather low in historical terms as the sector is expected to continue to be exposed to external factors. EUROFER expects automotive output in the EU to decrease by 0.6 percent in 2024.