Although US domestic rebar mills were reportedly hoping preliminary antidumping margins against Turkey in the ongoing trade case would come in at 10 percent or more, the DOC release today—announcing Turkish AD rates in the range of 5.29-7.07 percent—has not dampened their eagerness for a price increase. Sources tell SteelOrbis that a domestic rebar price increase will be announced “any day now.”
Speculation as to the amount of the price increase varies, but most estimates are pointing to at least $2.00 cwt. ($40/nt or $30/nt), even though the Turkish AD rates calculate to around $1.25-$1.50 cwt. ($25-$30/nt or $28-$33/mt) based on current import offers. Until anything is announced, US domestic rebar spot prices are still in the range of $31.25-$32.75 cwt. ($625-$655/nt or $689-$722/mt) ex-mill—although deals at or below the low end of the range are now “virtually impossible” according to sources.
As for the effect of the ruling on import prices and tonnages, sources say US buyers can expect higher Turkish offers “almost immediately,” although tonnage levels are not expected to drop drastically. In the long term, sources say Turkey will regain its status as the dominant source of imported rebar in the US, and in the meantime, other countries are expected to “step up” and fill the low-cost import rebar gap. According to traders, potential new sources include Peru, which already sends sporadic rebar shipments to the US, along with Germany and Italy, which can take advantage of the currently weak Euro.