Fitch raises iron ore and coking coal price forecasts amid supply disruptions and higher costs

International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has revised upward its near-term price assumptions for mining commodities, pointing to stronger-than-expected market performance so far this year and ongoing supply-side challenges.

The agency said commodity-specific factors, including logistical disruptions, higher production costs and resilient demand from steelmakers, continue to provide support for prices across major steelmaking raw materials.

Higher logistics costs support iron ore prices

Fitch increased its near-term iron ore price assumptions to $100/mt, from a previous estimate of $95/mt, citing rising shipping and transportation costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

According to the agency, higher fuel prices resulting from the ongoing conflict involving Iran have increased freight costs throughout global commodity supply chains. These additional transportation expenses have helped support iron ore prices despite broader concerns regarding global economic growth and steel demand.

Coking coal outlook strengthened for 2026-2027

Fitch also revised upward its coking coal price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to $220/mt and $190/mt, respectively, up from previous estimates of $190/mt and $180/mt. The agency attributed the adjustment to a combination of stronger year-to-date prices, supply disruptions in key producing regions and continued demand from the global steel industry.

Supply conditions have tightened following production disruptions in Australia, one of the world’s largest exporters of metallurgical coal. In addition, a mining accident in China has affected domestic supply availability, contributing to a more supportive pricing environment. ‘‘

Despite ongoing uncertainty in parts of the global economy, Fitch noted that demand from the steel sector has remained relatively strong. In addition to revising its short-term outlook, Fitch raised its long-term mid-cycle coking coal price assumption.