International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has updated its near-term price assumptions for both iron ore and coking coal, reflecting stronger-than-expected market conditions and cost support in early 2026.
Iron ore forecast raised amid cost support
Fitch has raised its 2026 iron ore price forecast to $95/mt, up from a previous estimate of $90/mt. The upward revision reflects higher production costs, which are expected to provide structural support for prices.
However, the agency noted that current price levels above $100/mt are unlikely to be sustained. Prices are expected to moderate as supply increases and inventories at Chinese ports build up.
Fitch has also revised its medium-term outlook upward, projecting iron ore prices at $85/mt in 2027, $80/mt in 2028 and stabilizing at $75/mt in 2029.
Coking coal outlook raised after supply disruption
For coking coal, Fitch has raised its 2026 price assumption to $190/mt, from a previous estimate of $180/mt. The increase is mainly attributed to the strong prices recorded in early 2026, following supply disruptions caused by a cyclone in Australia, a key exporting region.
Despite the strong start to the year, Fitch expects prices to gradually decline from the second quarter, as supply conditions normalize.
The agency maintained its longer-term outlook, forecasting coking coal prices at $180/mt for 2027-28 and remaining at $180/mt in 2029.
| Commodity | 2025 | 2026 (previous) | 2026 (new) | 2027 (previous) | 2027 (new) | 2028 (previous) | 2028 (new) | 2029 |
| Iron ore | $103/mt | $90/mt | $95/mt | $75/mt | $85/mt | $70/mt | $80/mt | $75/mt |
| Coking coal | $188/mt | $180/mt | $190/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt |
Market outlook - short-term strength, medium-term easing
Overall, Fitch’s updated assumptions point to a firm short-term outlook for steelmaking raw materials, supported by cost pressures and temporary supply constraints.
At the same time, the agency expects fundamentals to normalize, with rising supply and stable demand likely to cap further price increases in the medium term.