International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has updated its outlook for coking coal and iron ore, adjusting its 2025 and 2026 price assumptions to reflect stronger-than-anticipated market conditions and shifting supply fundamentals.
Global iron ore supply to expand
Fitch expects iron ore demand to remain broadly flat over the next two years. However, the agency sees a significant increase in global supply, estimated at 50-75 million mt during the period.
A major driver of this expansion is the ramp-up of the low-cost Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, which is expected to deliver around 20 million mt in 2026 and 45 million mt in 2027.
With supply outpacing demand, Fitch forecasts a $100/mt iron ore price at the close of 2025 and a further drop to $90/mt in 2026. The agency noted that the higher-than-expected 2026 starting point reflects the strong price environment observed year to date.
Coking coal outlook
Reflecting firm market conditions and robust year-to-date pricing, Fitch has raised its 2025 coking coal price assumption. The updated outlook now expects $185/mt in 2025, softening to $180/mt in 2026, with prices remaining stable through 2028.
| Commodity | 2024 | 2025 (previous) | 2025 (new) | 2026 (previous) | 2026 (new) | 2027 (previous) | 2027 (new) | 2028 (previous | 2028 (new) |
| Iron ore | $110/mt | $95/mt | $100/mt | $85/mt | $90/mt | $75/mt | $75/mt | $70/mt | $70/mt |
| Coking coal | $241/mt | $180/mt | $185/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt |