International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has released its updated forecast for coking coal and iron ore prices, keeping projections steady for 2025 and 2026. The report highlights global economic pressures, especially stemming from China’s faltering steel demand, as key drivers behind subdued price expectations.
The agency anticipates that coking coal prices will remain under pressure until 2027, with a notable drop from $241/mt in 2024 to $180/mt for both 2025 and 2026. This outlook is shaped primarily by weakened steel demand in China, driven by a slumping construction sector in the country and lingering impacts from the trade tensions started by the US. While emerging blast furnace-based steel capacity in India and Southeast Asia offers some support, it is not enough to offset the Chinese downturn.
Meanwhile, Fitch has also kept its iron ore price assumptions unchanged, forecasting $90/mt for 2025 and $85/mt for 2026.
| Commodity | 2024 Forecast | 2025 Forecast | 2026 Forecast |
| Coking Coal | $241/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt |
| Iron Ore | $90/mt | $90/mt | $85/mt |