According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026-2027/Q2 2026 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), output in the EU automotive sector is expected to remain under pressure in 2026, while the steel tube sector is forecast to record only limited growth amid a gradual and uneven recovery in demand from steel-using sectors.
EUROFER stated that the automotive sector remained the weakest major steel-using sector, with output declining for six consecutive quarters and remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. Although the sector recorded a slight rebound of 0.8 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2025, output contracted again by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing, slower-than-expected electric vehicle uptake and subdued consumer demand.
Automotive output fell sharply by 9.6 percent in 2024 and declined by a further 4.3 percent in 2025, partly due to uncertainty related to US tariffs and the weak manufacturing environment. EUROFER expects automotive output to decrease by 0.2 percent in 2026, compared to its previous forecast for 0.9 percent growth, as trade and geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices continue to weigh on the sector.
The association expects the automotive sector to return to growth only in 2027, with output forecast to increase by 2.9 percent. EUROFER noted that, as a highly export-oriented industry, the EU automotive supply chain remains particularly exposed to energy and trade shocks.
Meanwhile, output in the EU steel tube sector is forecast to increase only slightly in 2026. According to EUROFER’s Steel Weighted Industrial Production index, steel tube output rose by just 0.1 percent in 2025, following declines of 1.4 percent in 2023 and 2.4 percent in 2024. The sector is expected to grow by 0.6 percent in 2026 and by 1.3 percent in 2027.