Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), has stated that China’s average annual auto sales will likely amount to 40 million units during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30). However, he also mentioned that his forecast was considered to be too optimistic by some market players.
Mr. Cui forecast that China’s auto sales will grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, which will be much slower than the level recorded in the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Compared to 2025, by 2030 the domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles will rise by 1.8 percent, while the overall exports of auto vehicles will increase by 9.0 percent.
According to Cui Dongshu, vehicle adoption in the central and western regions of China, as well as in county and township markets, will gradually outpace that in Beijing and Shanghai. Meanwhile, electrification is shortening the average vehicle-ownership cycle as the effective service life of chips and batteries is only about ten years, much shorter than the 18 years for traditional internal-combustion engines. Even if overall vehicle ownership remains unchanged, demand for new-energy vehicles will indicate significant increases. The gradual expansion of overseas market shares, especially in Southeast Asia, Africa and the EU, will also positively affect China’s auto industry.