The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) has warned that proposed EU restrictions on waste exports to non-OECD countries could disrupt established recycled steel trade flows and limit access to important overseas markets, according to its October 2026 World Mirror on Ferrous Metals quarterly report.
On September 18, the European Commission published a draft list of non-OECD countries authorized to receive specified non-hazardous waste streams from the EU under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation, as SteelOrbis reported previously. From May 21, 2027, exports covered by the regulation to non-OECD destinations will be prohibited unless both the destination country and the relevant waste stream are included on the authorized list.
According to BIR, major recycled steel-consuming markets, including India, Egypt and Morocco, are not proposed for authorization to receive metals, raising concerns about potential disruptions to established supply chains and steelmakers' access to recycled raw materials. Restricting access to established export markets could reduce competition for European recycled steel, put downward pressure on prices and create regional surpluses if domestic steelmakers cannot absorb available volumes.
South African export measures remain a concern for recycled steel suppliers
Meanwhile, BIR highlighted continuing uncertainty in South Africa, where the Price Preference System (PPS) and a 20 percent export duty remain major concerns for recycled steel suppliers. Industry representatives have called for a review of these measures amid declining domestic crude steel production and rising steel imports.
European recycled steel shipments face logistical disruptions
In Europe, persistently low water levels on major waterways disrupted recycled steel transportation during the third quarter, resulting in longer delivery times, reduced barge capacity and greater reliance on more expensive road and rail transport. Scandinavian exporters also reported sharply higher sea freight costs, with freight rates to Turkey reaching record levels.
Regarding Turkey, BIR stated that strong finished steel sales by domestic producers supported renewed recycled steel demand in September, contributing to upward price momentum. Chinese-origin billet offers remained uncompetitive compared with recycled steel, while logistical disruptions affecting Russian-origin billet and slab limited the availability of alternative low-cost semi-finished products.
US recycled steel market could see modest price recovery in Q4
In the US, recycled steel intake has started to slow in some regions, while unfavorable weather conditions and the upcoming holiday season are expected to further restrict supply in November and December. According to BIR, these developments could support a modest price recovery in the fourth quarter if demand remains healthy.
India's recycled steel imports fall by more than 55 percent
In India, recycled steel imports declined by more than 55 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2026 due to higher international prices, depreciation of the rupee, subdued demand and greater availability of lower-cost domestic recycled steel and direct reduced iron (DRI). BIR expects any recovery in import demand to be gradual and selective.
Meanwhile, China's weak domestic steel demand and structural overcapacity are expected to maintain its dependence on export markets. Chinese crude steel production declined by 3.1 percent year on year in the January-August period, while finished steel exports increased by 6.8 percent year on year to 10.16 million mt in August.
In Japan, domestic recycled steel prices have been declining since July due to lower export prices, yen appreciation and weaker demand resulting from summer production cuts at domestic electric arc furnace-based steelmakers.
China remains largest recycled steel consumer, Turkey leads imports
According to BIR's latest World Steel Recycling in Figures update, China remained the world's largest recycled steel consumer in the first half of 2026, despite a 7.1 percent year-on-year decline in consumption to 101.32 million mt.
Turkey maintained its position as the world's largest recycled steel importer, with imports increasing by 3.1 percent year on year to 9.696 million mt. The EU-27 remained the leading recycled steel exporter, recording a 4.5 percent year-on-year increase in shipments to 8.52 million mt during the same period.
