Speaking at the SteelOrbis 2026 Fall Conference & 95th IREPAS Meeting held in Belgrade on September 27-29, Alex Gordienko, export director of Spain's CELSA Group, stated that the global steel industry continues to operate under significant pressure from oversupply and weakening long steel consumption, despite the relatively resilient outlook for the global economy.
Referring to the IMF's July update, Gordienko noted that global GDP is expected to grow by around three percent in 2026, with stronger growth anticipated next year. However, he stressed that the geographical distribution of economic growth has become increasingly important for the steel industry, as some of the fastest-growing economies are also rapidly expanding their domestic steel production.
Global long steel consumption continues to decline
According to data presented by Gordienko, global long steel consumption decreased by two percent year on year in the first half of 2026 and is forecast to total around 895 million mt for the full year, down from 907 million mt in 2025. The outlook differs considerably depending on the product. Global rebar consumption is forecast to fall from 376 million mt in 2025 to 356 million mt in 2026, while wire rod demand is also expected to decrease from 20 million mt to 199 million mt. In contrast, bar consumption is forecast to rise from 201 million mt to 213 million mt, while sections consumption is expected to edge up to approximately 61 million mt.
The weakness in rebar demand is particularly concentrated in Asia. Rebar consumption in the region is forecast to decline to approximately 251 million mt in 2026 from 271 million mt in 2025. By contrast, European rebar consumption is expected to remain broadly stable at around 31 million mt, while North American demand is forecast to increase moderately.
China remains key structural weakness while India expands
China remains the main structural weakness for global steel demand, with no meaningful recovery seen in the country's construction sector as of the second quarter of 2026. According to the figures presented by Gordienko, Chinese residential floor space sold declined by 12.4 percent year on year in the second quarter, underlining the continued weakness in one of the most important sources of rebar demand.
India, meanwhile, presents almost the opposite picture, supported by investment growth and strong infrastructure spending. However, Gordienko pointed out that India is also rapidly increasing its domestic steel production. Therefore, while the country is becoming an increasingly important demand engine for the global steel industry, this does not necessarily mean that it will become a major import engine.
China's export structure changes amid trade measures
Weak domestic demand in China continues to put pressure on export markets as excess material seeks outlets overseas. However, Gordienko highlighted that the composition of Chinese shipments has become particularly important this year.
China's finished steel exports decreased by three percent year on year to 75.1 million mt in the January-August period, while semi-finished steel exports surged by 52.1 percent to 14 million mt. As a result, the country's combined finished and semi-finished steel exports still increased year on year.
According to Gordienko, trade measures are increasingly changing not only the destinations of Chinese steel exports, but also the form in which steel moves out of the country.
Traditional global steel cycle is breaking into regional cycles
On the pricing side, Gordienko stated that finished steel prices have remained relatively stable despite volatility in input costs. Rebar, wire rod and billet prices have shown considerably less volatility than scrap, freight and energy costs, reflecting steelmakers' limited ability to pass higher costs on amid weak demand.
Gordienko described 2026 as a particularly unusual year, shaped simultaneously by rapidly advancing technologies and stronger global connections on the one hand, and wars, tariffs and sanctions on the other. As a result, steel markets are becoming global and regional at different speeds, while demand growth is increasingly concentrated in certain regions. According to Gordienko, the traditional global steel cycle is therefore increasingly breaking up into multiple regional cycles.
