Although a number of offshore producers of unfinished J55 electric resistance weld (ERW) oil country tubular goods (OCTG) casing had decried they’d be sitting pretty once the DOC makes their final determinations, Korean, Indian, Vietnamese, Turkish and Ukrainian mills have a new problem to worry about. Late last week, “critical circumstances" allegations were filed in the in the antidumping (AD) investigations of OCTG from Korea, Ukraine, and Vietnam, India and Turkey. Critical circumstances allegations had also been filed in the countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of OCTG from India and Turkey, and the DOC determined that as of December 23, importers of all entries of OCTG from India, except OCTG from Jindal SAW Ltd., would need to make a cash deposit of countervailing duties in the amount of 3.5 percent. A negative preliminary determination was made that subsidies were not being provided to provider and exporters of OCTG from Turkey, noting only de minimus CVD margins, which Turkish mills has long suspected. In terms of the AD case, Korean mills are the only ones who have signed on as the importer of record, and trader sources who are the importer of record for OCTG casing originating in the other named countries say this is a concern, especially with regard to shipments that are already on the water. Some have gone so far as to indicate they’re already working on ways to distribute that casing in other places, so as to avoid having it dock in the US. Although both the DOC and ITC would need to make affirmative determinations of critical circumstances for AD or CVD duties to be applied retroactively, trader sources say this is simply not a risk they are willing to take.
Meanwhile, US OCTG mills are rejoicing in reaction to the filing. If AD and CVD margins are high, and are applied retroactively, this will essentially knock offshore competition right out of the market. Although the most commonly reported US domestic spot price range has not moved in the past week, still at $58.00-$61.00 cwt. ($1,279-$1,344/mt or $1,160-$1,220/nt) ex-Midwest mill, depending on the size of the order, prices could firm quickly when the final determinations are announced in February.