This week, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained largely subdued, marked by cautious buying activity, regional price adjustments, and the lingering impact of holidays on demand. Ex-China sentiment has remained weak despite a rebound in futures prices, with major mills keeping offers flat and with demand subdued ahead of the holiday. Indian suppliers have raised some offers to Europe, but trading has been thin. In Europe, holiday breaks have dampened activity, though lower import prices attracted limited interest. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, demand has continued to lag behind. Emirati buyers have booked only a few ex-Japan HRC cargoes, with most staying on the sidelines amid weak domestic consumption and uncertainty around the near-term price direction.
The ex-China hot rolled coil (HRC) market has seen little improvement in sentiment despite a modest rebound in futures prices. Most major Chinese mills have held their export offers steady, while only a few smaller producers and traders have raised prices slightly amid speculation of output cuts. Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC remain largely unchanged at $460–475/mt FOB, while tradable levels have edged up to $453–460/mt FOB. In overseas markets, offers in Vietnam for Q235 HRC have risen slightly to $470–472/mt CFR, while Middle Eastern buyers continue to resist higher prices, expecting $480–485/mt CFR despite official offers holding at around $490–495/mt CFR. Chinese domestic HRC prices dipped slightly amid abundant supply and limited demand ahead of the Labor Day holiday. Overall, the market remains cautious, with scepticism about the enforcement of crude steel production cuts.
Indian mills have maintained stable HRC export offers to the Middle East amid sluggish demand and stiff competition from cheaper Chinese material. Indicative offers have stood at $500–520/mt FOB, with no confirmed deals. In contrast, offers to Europe have risen by $10-15/mt to $580–590/mt FOB, supported by a few small-volume trades at higher CFR-based levels. While export activity remains limited, sellers are cautiously optimistic about improved European demand and are focusing more on domestic sales, where pricing conditions remain stronger.
The European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained quiet this week as public holidays across the region have kept trading activity limited. Domestic prices have remained largely stable, with northern European mills offering at €670–700/mt ex-works and Italian mills quoting at around €620–650/mt ex-works. Tradable levels have seen little change, with only a slight upward movement in northern Europe. On the import side, interest has remained modest due to trade barriers, but widening price gaps between domestic and overseas material have started to attract the attention of buyers. Most import offers in southern Europe range at €530–580/mt CFR, with some ex-Indonesia deals have been rumoured at deeply discounted levels of around €505/mt CFR. Offers from India have been limited, as mills prioritized local sales, while ex-Turkey and ex-Saudi Arabia HRC has been heard at €550–560/mt CFR, slightly down week on week. Vietnamese offers, not subject to EU antidumping duties, have stood at around €530/mt CFR. Despite slow activity, the growing competitiveness of imported HRC may prompt more buyers to revisit overseas sourcing in the coming weeks.
In Turkey, the week in the HRC market has been relatively dull with little movement seen on the pricing side. Import scrap prices are believed to have hit the bottom and, in addition, Turkish HRC producers are not under much pressure in terms of sales as June production volumes are almost sold out. Local prices for HRC have settled at $570-585/mt ex-works with sales of small and medium-size lots concluded here and there. As regards exports, the official price levels are at $560-575/mt FOB and higher, depending on the suppliers’ positions. However, $550/mt FOB also seems achievable for sizeable orders. This week, Egypt has decided to open a safeguard investigation against HRC imports with the 2021-24 period to be evaluated. Therefore, in theory, Turkey may be significantly restricted in its sales to this destination, which had historically been one of the regular outlets for Turkish HRC. Import offers from China, considering it has been a short week due to the holidays, have shifted to $485-491/mt CFR, up from $480-483/mt CFR seen last week. Egypt has still been seeking $570/mt CFR, though it seems that buyers’ price ideas are at least $20/mt lower. Russian offers, for sanctioned material, have been reported this week at $475-485/mt CFR to both Turkey and North Africa, with some deals concluded to the latter.
In the UAE, despite their continuing cautious stance and delayed imports, Emirati buyers expressed interest in Japanese material as of the end of last week. According to sources, Japan sold 15,000-20,000 mt of HRC to the UAE for $495/mt CFR. As a result, Japan's HRC offers for July shipment to the UAE have been reduced to $495-500/mt CFR, from $505-510/mt CFR before. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers have continued to reduce their offer prices in response to sluggish trade, but with no result in terms of closing deals. Since last week, Chinese offers for SS400 have dropped from $490-500/mt CFR to $490-495/mt CFR for shipment in June. However, a few Chinese suppliers have given further reductions and offered at around $480-485/mt CFR. In contrast, Indian suppliers, who currently hold the highest levels in the market, have kept their prices unchanged at around $540-550/mt CFR, without attracting much interest.