The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been navigating a mix of regional headwinds -from regulatory uncertainty in Europe, to supply risks out of China, to hesitant buying in the Middle East - keeping the near-term outlook clouded and sentiment cautious. In Asia, ex-China prices have widened as exporters have been weighing the uncertain demand prospects, while Vietnamese import offers have inched higher despite mounting risks surrounding Chinese-origin material. Indian HRC prices have held steady, with mills showing resistance to further price cuts amid thin margins. Meanwhile, the UAE market has remained in wait-and-see mode, with buyers refraining from fresh bookings amid comfortable stock levels and the unclear price direction, while Turkish HRC prices have edged down slightly, pressured by weaker scrap values and sluggish demand. In Europe, the market has remained stagnant, as CBAM obligations and quota-related concerns have kept buyers cautious and reliant on domestic mills’ supplies.
Ex-China hot rolled coil export prices have shown mixed signals in the past week, with major mills widening their offer range by $10/mt on the lower end. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has broadened by $10/mt on the lower end of the range, moving at $470–490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $480/mt FOB, mainly for November shipment. At the same time, while some traders have raised offers slightly to destinations such as Vietnam, buyers’ price ideas have largely stayed unchanged from last week. As a result, the overall price direction in the export market remains uncertain, with September demand showing little improvement in China’s domestic market, while pressure persists from weak buying interest and unresolved inventory issues. Offers from most Chinese traders have been voiced at $475-485/mt FOB, up by $5/mt week on week, while most bids and actual deals have remained at $470-480/mt FOB levels, the same as last week. In particular, ex-China Q235/SS400 HRC, 1,900-2,000 mm, offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $500-503/mt CFR for November shipment, compared to $497-500/mt CFR last week. However, most customers’ bids are still voiced at $495-497/mt CFR. Meanwhile, Chinese offers to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at $500-510/mt CFR UAE, mainly the same as last week. Besides, Chinese Q195 HRC offers to Turkey have remained at $515-520/mt CFR, though market insiders estimate the workable levels at $505/mt CFR and above, with a few deals reported to have been signed at $510-512/mt CFR and $518/mt CFR, respectively.
Although market sentiment in China has weakened this week following a decline in HRC futures prices, most Chinese traders have held their prices firm for Vietnam, with some even raising their offers for Q235 HRC, which is excluded from antidumping duties, by $3-5/mt compared with the previous week. However, Chinese coil imports now face yet another threat as Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority has acknowledged a petition from domestic producers seeking an anti-circumvention investigation. The case targets HRC with widths above 1,880 mm and below 2,300 mm, which are alleged to be used to bypass existing tariffs. More specifically, ex-China offers for 1,900-2,000 mm Q235/SS400 HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $503-505/mt CFR for November shipment, compared to $497-500/mt CFR last week. Besides, according to sources, at least 20,000 mt of ex-China Q235 HRC for prompt shipment have been booked at $500/mt CFR this week. Meanwhile, indicative offers for SAE1006 HRC from China have settled at $515/mt CFR, the same as last week. Meanwhile, offers for ex-Indonesia 3,000 mm SAE1006 HRC have settled at $510-512/mt CFR for December shipment, compared to $507/mt CFR last week. Besides, suppliers from South Korea have been offering their coils for November shipment at $515/mt CFR. Furthermore, ex-Malaysia 3,000 mm SAE1006 HRC has been offered at around $510-515/mt CFR for December shipment, the same as last week, while offers from Japan for 1,200 mm SAE1006 HRC have been voiced at $520-525/mt CFR, mainly for December shipment, following a deal for 30,000 mt signed at $512/mt CFR for November shipment last week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $510-515/mt CFR Vietnam, compared with $507–510/mt CFR last week.
Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained largely stable over the past week, but trading activity has slowed considerably as sellers have grown increasingly reluctant to do deals below $495/mt FOB. Official offers from most large Indian mills have been kept unchanged in the range of $505-515/mt FOB to the Middle East, which translates to around $535-540/mt CFR UAE. However, according to sources, one of the Indian steelmakers has been offering its coils in the UAE at lower levels of around $495-505/mt FOB, which translates to around $525-535/mt CFR. Meanwhile, ex-India offers in Europe have been voiced at $555/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, which translates to around $610/mt CFR, but risks of quota exhaustion coupled with sufficient local availability have prompted large distributors to not respond to ex-India offers.
At the same time, most offers in Vietnam have been estimated at $515-520/mt CFR, the same as last week, which means around $495-500/mt FOB in Vietnam.
Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $495-555/mt FOB, from $490-555/mt FOB at the beginning of last week.
In Turkey, the domestic HRC offer levels have slid slightly over the past week to $540-555/mt ex-works base in offers for November deliveries, while levels around $535/mt ex-works are also considered possible. Export offers are mainly at $530-545/mt FOB, although a majority of the suppliers are trying to stick to the upper end of the range. Import offers at the end of the current week stand at $508-518/mt CFR for November shipments, for re-rolling grades. According to sources, a cargo has been booked this week, with part of it destined for a pipe-maker, at $518/mt CFR, while the balance is expected to go to a re-roller at around $505-510/mt CFR. An Egyptian mill has also traded a small lot of 7,000 mt of HRC at $545/mt CFR, sources reported. In addition, a Russian non-sanctioned HRC supplier has finalized sales for November shipment to Turkey at around $510-515/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned. The bids to the sanctioned producer have stood mainly at $470-490/mt CFR Turkey depending on the buyer.
In the UAE, after making significant purchases last week, HRC buyers have become cautious, opting to monitor the market rather than place new orders. With sufficient stock levels and fluctuating offers, especially from China, buyers remain hesitant and continue to expect lower prices. As a result, this week Chinese HRC offers have declined by $5/mt, now standing at $500-510/mt CFR for November shipments. However, tradable levels are reported closer to $500-505/mt CFR, as buyers resist higher offers. Indian suppliers have also reduced their offers to $525-535/mt CFR, down $5-10/mt from last week. Despite this, no new deals have been reported, as competing offers from other origins remain more attractive. Japanese suppliers, who sold some volumes last week, are holding offers steady at $510-515/mt CFR for November shipments, while Taiwanese suppliers are maintaining their offer levels at $505/mt CFR for the same shipment period, following recent sales. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian suppliers continue to offer at $530-535/mt CFR for late October and November shipments. However, no deals have been concluded as buyers consider these prices to be too high for the current market conditions.
The European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has showed little movement this week, with domestic prices holding steady across both northern Europe and Italy. Import demand has remained subdued, as ongoing uncertainty over Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requirements and quota limits have continued to weigh on buyer sentiment. Specifically, local mills in norther Europe are reported to be targeting €600-630/mt ex-works for new orders for November deliveries, mainly the same as last week, while HRC offers from Italian mills have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works for October delivery. However, the tradable price has remained at €570-580/mt ex-works levels in the north, with a few market insiders reporting transactions at €560/mt ex-works and €540-550/mt ex-works in Italy, with no sizable deals reported this week. In the meantime, the import market has remained subdued as uncertainty over CBAM rules and limited quota availability curb purchasing appetites. Industry participants have reported that most buyers prefer to delay orders until the outlook becomes clearer. Indicative offers for imported HRC have been reported in the range of €505-540/mt CFR, depending on the origin, up by €5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Indonesia HRC offers in southern Europe, which have been voiced at €505-515/mt CFR Spain and at €510/mt CFR Italy.