Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in the global market have remained largely stable, but signs of regional divergence are becoming increasingly evident. While ex-China HRC prices have been held steady overall, some markets have started to move in different directions. In Vietnam, HRC import prices have continued to trade within a tight range, indicating subdued activity and cautious sentiment.
In Pakistan, buyers have appeared to identify a bottom in Chinese offers, with steady deal prices also being reported from Japan. Meanwhile, Europe has experienced a further decline in HRC prices, driven by persistently weak demand; even deeper import price cuts have failed to spark significant buying interest. In contrast, some Emirati buyers have shown renewed interest in imports as offers softened slightly.
This week, ex-China HRC price trend has remained cautious, varying by destination. While most mills and traders have kept maintaining stable offers overall, some regional differences have emerged. In Vietnam, prices have edged slightly higher, reflecting firmer tighter availability. In contrast, some Middle Eastern buyers have been seeing lower prices, particularly in the case of occasional non-VAT offers, contributing to a more subdued tone in that market. More specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have settled at $445-460/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $452.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. Meanwhile, smaller mills have been offering their HRC at around $440-445/mt CFR, up by $5/mt on the lower end of range week in week, though, according to sources, offers from small non-VAT mills have been still voiced at $435/mt FOB level. In the meantime, the tradable price for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC has been estimated at $435-445/mt FOB, the same as last week, however, lower offers at around $430/mt FOB have been also occasionally reported in the market this week.
Ex-India hot rolled coil prices have been showing a slight downward bias in offers submitted both in the Middle East and Europe, reaching to $510-550/mt FOB, depending on destination, down by $10/mt over the past week. The lower end of range corresponds to offers in the Middle East at around $510-520/mt FOB, compared to $520/mt FOB last week, which translated to around $535-540/mt CFR UAE, but Indian sellers have been largely ignored as most the trades in this region were heard at levels of below the $500/mt CFR mark, clearly ‘out-competing’ ex-India offers. Meanwhile the higher end of range corresponds to offers in Europe at around $600/mt CFR or around $550/mt FOB. Besides, lower prices at around $590/mt CFR have also started to emerge in the EU market at by the end of the week, according to sources.
Import HRC prices in Vietnam have continued to move within a narrow range this week, influenced by fluctuations in Chinese HRC futures and shifting sentiment among suppliers. Meanwhile, market participants have noted a slight recovery in demand, with several import deals concluded at discounted levels. The SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has remained at $470-495/mt CFR, the same as last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to the most competitive offers from China, while the higher end corresponds to the tradable price from other foreign suppliers. According to sources, around 20,000 mt of SAE1006 HRC from Indonesia is reported to have been booked to Vietnam at $493/mt CFR for August shipment. In the meantime, this week, ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC offers, which are not targeted by antidumping duty, have been voiced at $455-460/mt CFR mainly for end-July shipment, up by $5-10/mt week on week, while offers for Q195 HRC have settled at $445/mt CFR. At the same time, according to sources, during the past few days several deals for around 20,000 mt in total of ex-China Q195 have been signed at $441/mt CFR, for end-July shipment.
In Pakistan, imported HRC market has seen a slight downward adjustment in ex-China prices this week, following a deal concluded late last week. Specifically, ex-China SAE1006 HRC offers have settled at around $470-475/mt CFR, following a deal for 30,000 mt signed at $480/mt CFR last week. In contrast, offers from other suppliers have remained largely stable, with recent deal prices for ex-Japan material holding firm at $490–495/mt CFR, indicating continued support at those levels. According to sources, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-Japan HRC has been signed at $490-495/mt CFR this week, remaining at the same deal price level as was reported two weeks ago.
Domestic HRC prices in Europe have declined further this week, as weak demand and bearish sentiment continue to weigh on the market. Most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for July deliveries, have been voiced at €600-620/mt ex-works, the same last week, however, tradable prices in northern Europe have declined further this week by around €10/mt week on week to €590/mt ex-works level. Meanwhile, in Italy, most offers from mills have dropped at €570-590/mt ex-works from €580-600/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, workable prices have dropped as well, falling to €550-555/mt ex-works levels, down by at least €20/mt week on week. According to sources, buyers remain cautious, with some speculative deals dipping to €535/mt ex-works - though not yet reflective of actual market levels. Import trading activity in southern Europe has remained subdued this week, with most offers for import HRC in southern Europe voiced at €470-530/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, compared to €490-540/mt CFR last week. HRC offers from one of Indonesian mills have been reported at the lower end of the range or around €470-490/mt CFR, down from €490/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers from India have been reported at $600/mt CFR southern Europe, which translates to around €520/mt CFR, down by €5-10/mt week on week. “Buyers are pushing for lower prices or around $590/mt CFR,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
In Turkey, the business activity in the flats markets has been insufficient this week due to slow demand in both local and export segments. Domestic buyers, seeing weak demand for their own products, are not quite in the mood for sizeable purchases and are pushing for some discounts. Current offers are at $545-560/mt ex-works and CFR Marmara, same as in the past week, while the bids are at $530-535/mt ex-works mainly. On exports, Turkish mills are at $530-545/mt FOB as in terms of realistic price levels, while most of the official offers are at $540/mt FOB and above. However, some of the buyers in the EU in particular have been reporting offers at as low as $520-525/mt FOB in some deals, which might be possible for orders with complicated breakdowns. In the import segment of Turkish HRC market, the offers from China have slid from $468-477/mt CFR to $460-470/mt CFR in most offers with the lower end corresponding to non-VAT trade. No fresh deals have been heard but the level of $460-463/mt CFR is considered workable. Offers from Egypt are at $540-545/mt CFR, while Malaysia, according to sources, is still indicating around $540/mt CFR versus $20/mt lower bids. Russian mills have not been firmly in the market while their offer level is evaluated at $460-475/mt CFR depending on the mill.
In the UAE, despite slower domestic business activity, interest in Chinese HRC has picked up due to recent price softening. Sources report that some bookings have been heard from China to the UAE at $465-470/mt CFR, while current ex-China offers for SS400 grade HRC for July shipment remain stable at $475-485/mt CFR. In contrast, offers from Japan and India have seen slight declines but no confirmed deals yet. Japanese mills have lowered offers to below $500/mt CFR, down from last week’s $505-510/mt. Indian suppliers have reduced prices by $15/mt to $535-540/mt CFR, still considered high relative to market levels. Meanwhile, Russian-origin HRC continues to be offered at $455-460/mt CFR. Australian suppliers have also entered the market with offers around $525/mt CFR.