Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have showed mixed dynamics across key markets this week, with regional variations influenced by domestic sentiment, holidays, and regulatory changes. In China, HRC mills reduced export prices, while non-VAT traders withdrew their low offers following the announcement of a new tax regulation, introducing fresh uncertainty into the market. Meanwhile, in Vietnam local producer Hoa Phat Group raised its domestic prices, reflecting improved sentiments towards imports. Indian HRC export prices showed a wide range depending on the destination, while cold rolled coil (CRC) trade experienced a revival, indicating renewed activity. In Turkey, HRC prices remained relatively stable, though import offers have been gradually finding new levels following the holiday break. Meanwhile, in Europe, HRC prices showed only limited movement despite ArcelorMittal’s efforts to raise offers.
In China, although this week some HRC mills have still been trying to maintain their offers at unchanged levels, most producers have been forced to go lower as sentiments have been more negative in the local market, with domestic HRC prices decreasing as HRC futures prices have failed to rise further. In particular, offers for ex-China boron-added SS400 HRC from large mills have settled at $465-480/mt FOB, against $470-480/mt FOB last week, though, according to one source, “Most big mills including Shagang, Rizhao, Benxi and Baotou have been offering at $465/mt FOB.” In the meantime, Chinese non-VAT traders, who were offering their coils at lower levels compared to mills, have withdrawn their HRC offers due to the news about the tightening of tax regulations on China’s steel exports, which means the end of non-VAT steel trading. Thus, the tradable prices have settled at $465/mt FOB, versus $455-470/mt FOB last week.
In Vietnam, HRC producer Hoa Phat Group has announced its new local HRC prices for May and June shipment, increasing them by around $9/mt from prices in March to VND 13,470-13,500/kg ($525-526/mt) CIF. The decision has been made amid the recent recovery of import HRC prices in Vietnam, driven by the imposition of antidumping (AD) duty on ex-China coils. More specifically, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not targeted by AD duty, have been voiced at $482-485/mt CFR, up by $9-10/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from ex-Asia SAE1006 HRC suppliers have been heard at $515-545/mt CFR, depending on the destination, though most bids are still voiced at around $510/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $510/mt CFR, against $490-510/mt CFR last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have been characterized by a wide range, reflecting variations in demand, competition and trade dynamics across different destination markets. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers have been submitted for most destinations at $490-510/mt FOB, the same as last week, while offers to Europe have been estimated at $565-570/mt FOB, which translates to around $630/mt CFR. According to sources, Indian suppliers have been seeing higher buying interest from key destinations like Italy and Germany where a few distributors are more inclined to look at imports in order to restock. As SteelOrbis reported earlier, last week several deals for ex-India HRC were reported at $615-625/mt CFR, while a recent deal has been signed in Italy at $630/mt CFR. In the meantime, indicative offers have remained stable at around $520/mt CFR in the Middle East, with Indian mills holding back from offering to the region due to the Eid holiday, which has kept trading activity muted.
In Europe, although this week the leading regional producer ArcelorMittal has decided to push its domestic HRC prices across the EU up by around €20/mt to €700/mt ex-works, delivered in northern Europe, other mills have not been in a hurry to follow suit, maintaining their HRC prices mainly stable or only increasing them slightly. Thus, domestic prices for HRC in Europe have showed only a slight increase this week. Offers from other European mills have been voiced at €650-670/mt ex-works for May-June delivery in northern Europe, up by €10/mt week on week, and at €630-650/mt ex-works for delivery in May in Italy, against €620-650/mt ex-works last week. However, the current tradable price level in northern Europe has been estimated at €640-650/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. Besides, workable prices in Italy have been reported at €620-630/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt over the past week. In the import segment, most offers have settled at €560-610/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, the same as last week. According to market insiders, a deal for at least 30,000 mt of ex-Indonesia HRC is reported to have been signed at $620/mt CFR Antwerp, which translates to around €560/mt CFR, though offers for ex-Indonesia HRC through traders in Spain have been reported at as high as €590/mt CFR.
In Turkey, local HRC prices have remained almost stable over the past week at $585-600/mt ex-works base, with only a few mills expressing their aim to increase prices to over $600/mt ex-works. As for exports, Turkish producers have been reporting quite a good flow of inquiries from European buyers, while their offers are mainly at $580-585/mt FOB, though the latest deals were closed at $570/mt FOB. According to sources, Turkey is now able to take advantage of the AD duty announced in the EU against Egypt and is covering some of the HRC needs of EU-based buyers for end-of-May and June shipments. Import offers from China to Turkey have settled at $495-500/mt CFR this week, up $5-10/mt over the past week, with no deals reported. Russian non-sanctioned material has been offered to several customers at $520-525/mt CFR. Egypt is not in the market yet after the holiday period in Muslim countries. However, there has been talk about a deal from Japan at $520-523/mt CFR Gemlik for 30,000 mt, though some sources believe the deal is an old one.
In Egypt, local HRC prices have remained at $570-575/mt ex-works base, while for exports the latest indicative price was voiced at $565-570/mt FOB. The Egyptian supplier is expected to return to the market next week with firmer offers for overseas buyers, particularly for Turkey, where the latest indications stood at $585-590/mt CFR. In the import HRC segment in Egypt, the latest offers from Japan stood at $535/mt CFR, while China has been offering at around $510-515/mt CFR, stable over the past week. Bids for ex-Asia material, however, have not been reported higher than $500/mt CFR. In the meantime, a sanctioned Russian supplier has been offering at $490-500/mt CFR for May production and currently has good chances for sales to Egypt.
In the UAE, because of the continuing holiday mood, trade activity has been slow this week and so most HRC suppliers have maintained their offers unchanged. According to reports, Indian suppliers have maintained their offers from last week at $520-530/mt CFR for shipment at the end of April and in early May. Similarly, no new offers have been received from Japanese or Taiwanese suppliers, with offers remaining at unchanged levels of $520/mt CFR and $525-530/mt CFR, respectively. However, Chinese suppliers' offers have decreased in comparison to the previous week following the new tax regulations. As a result, non-VAT traders' offers have been withdrawn from the market, and current Chinese offers to the UAE have settled at $505/mt CFR, up from $495-505/mt CFR, for May shipment.