The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained largely subdued this week, with most regions seeing stable or muted activity amid cautious sentiment. In China, local HRC prices have continued to decline, weighed down by the volatility of the futures market, which has continued to restrain export activity. Indian HRC export offers have remained stable, though some discounted deals have been reported in the Gulf, while buyers in the UAE have remained active in securing imports, particularly from China and India. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s import market has showed weak demand, with offers largely unchanged. Turkey has also seen a modest appetite for both local and import HRC, with prices showing little movement. Meanwhile, Europe’s HRC market has stayed quiet, with mills aiming to push for higher prices but with buyers remaining sceptical, resulting in diverging sentiment and limited spot activity.
Export activity for Chinese HRC has remained slow over the past week, with buyers and sellers struggling to close the bid-offer gap. At the same time, export offers from both mills and traders have edged slightly lower, tracking the declines in domestic HRC prices and the ongoing volatility in Chinese HRC futures prices. Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have moved to $485-490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $487.5/mt FOB, down by $5/mt week on week, while offers from smaller mills have been voiced at around $480-485/mt FOB, down by $5/mt on the higher end of the range over the past week. Meanwhile, the tradable price for ex-China HRC from traders has settled at $480-486/mt FOB, depending on the destination, down by $4/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. In particular, according to sources, ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam stands at $500/mt CFR, the same as at the end of last week, while offers for ex-China Q235 in Pakistan have been voiced at $495/mt CFR, down by $5/mt week on week. At the same time, most offers for SS400 HRC in the Middle East have been voiced at $515-520/mt CFR, with a deal for around 25,000 mt reportedly signed this week at $514/mt CFR for pipe-making grade HRC for October shipment. Market participants have also pointed to uncertainty over whether shipments without value-added tax (VAT) would face tighter controls, further discouraging deals.
Ex-India HRC offer prices have remained relatively stable at $545-550/mt FOB for European customers, with trading activity in Europe subdued due to the traditional summer lull. At the same time, this week a deal for ex-India HRC has been concluded in the Gulf region at a slight discount, though most market sources noted that both buyers and sellers remain cautious and uncertain about the outlook amid shifting tariff policies and persistent demand-side challenges. Specifically, ex-India HRC offer prices have been voiced at $505-515/mt FOB in offers to the Middle East, against $510-520/mt FOB last week. However, according to sources, although demand has remained moderate in the region, at least 20,000-25,000 mt of ex-India SAE1006 HRC is reported to have been sold to the UAE this week at $525-530/mt CFR, for October shipment, which translates to around $500-505/mt FOB. Meanwhile, most offers have been estimated at $530-540/mt CFR UAE, down by $10/mt week on week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $500-550/mt FOB, down by $10/mt on the lower end of the range over the past week.
Vietnam’s import HRC market has remained subdued over the past week, with offers from key suppliers largely unchanged, while buyers have continued to press for discounts amid weak demand. Offers for ex-China Q235 HRC 2 mm, free from antidumping duty, have settled at $498-500/mt CFR levels, mainly the same as at the end of last week, while offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at around $510-520/mt CFR levels. Meanwhile, following a deal for 30,000 mt of ex-Malaysia SAE1006 HRC signed last week at $502/mt CFR for early October shipment to Vietnam, this week most ex-Malaysia offers have been estimated at around $520/mt CFR. Offers from Indonesia and Japan for SAE1006 HRC have been heard at $510/mt CFR and $515/mt CFR, respectively, almost the same as last week. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $505-510/mt CFR, versus $502/mt CFR last week, since, even though most import offers have been voiced at above $510/mt CFR, Vietnamese customers keep pushing for additional discounts, emphasising the low demand in the country.
Turkey’s HRC buyers have been showing moderate activity this week mainly being interested in domestic material and in material from the Black Sea region, particularly Russia. The non-sanctioned Russian mill has sold additional volumes for October shipment at $510-515/mt CFR with the total volume reaching around 50,000 mt, sources reported. The sanctioned mill was in the market with $485-490/mt CFR, the same as a week ago, but preferred to sell to the MENA region at slightly higher prices. Chinese HRC offers have been hovering at around $510-520/mt CFR this week and settled at a slightly lower level towards the end of the week, with no deals reported. Buyers’ rare price ideas generally do not exceed $490/mt CFR considering that the material is offered for October shipments. The Egyptian mill has preferred to stay away from active offering with the latest indications reported at $550-555/mt CFR. Malaysian offers, according to some buyers, have been voiced at $545-550/mt CFR, with the seller not being under pressure to sell, following sizeable deals to the EU closed in the past week. Local HRC offers in Turkey have been ranging at $555-565/mt ex-works base for October deliveries, with slight discounts considered possible. Export offers are at $540-560/mt FOB depending on the mill, again for October shipments.
In the UAE, this week, some activity has been seen, particularly from Chinese and Indian suppliers, but local demand remains slow, mainly due to seasonal factors. This slowdown has led customers to anticipate lower prices, though no reductions have been seen so far from anyone other than India. Reports indicate that China sold tube-making grade HRC to the UAE at $514/mt CFR for October shipment. Current Chinese offers for SS400 are at $510-520/mt CFR, while non-VAT suppliers are quoting at around $495-500/mt CFR, unchanged from last week. Ex-China SAE1006 HRC is being offered at $525/mt CFR, down $10/mt from the previous week. From India, a recent deal involved 20,000-25,000 mt of HRC sold to UAE re-rollers at $525-530/mt CFR. However, general offers from Indian suppliers remain steady at $530-540/mt CFR for October shipment. Japanese suppliers, who last week sold to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia at $510-515/mt CFR for October, are maintaining their offers at $510-520/mt CFR, nearly unchanged from prior weeks. Moreover, this week South Korean and Taiwanese suppliers have been heard in the market offering at $530/mt CFR and $535/mt CFR for October shipment, respectively.
The EU HRC market has remained in its slow summer phase, marked by plant stoppages and maintenance works. Trading activity has been muted over the past two weeks in both the northern and southern regions, with many participants expected to resume operations only toward the end of the month. At the same time, local mills and buyers continue to hold differing views on the market outlook for September. Most mills are still banking on higher prices, while buyers remain doubtful of any significant uptrend given the anticipated slow pace of consumption recovery. Compared to early August, tradable prices have remained relatively stable ranging at €530-540/mt ex-works in Italy and at €560-580/mt ex-works in northern Europe. However, indicative offers from local mills both in Italy and northern Europe have increased by around €10-30/mt since early August, reaching around €580/mt ex-works in Italy and €610/mt ex-works in the north. At the same time, discussions about further hikes targeting October and November deliveries to around €630/mt ex-works in northern Europe have been circulating this week. As for the import segment, business activity has been close to zero over the past two weeks, with indictive offers standing at €475-520/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, up by €5-20/mt since early August. According to sources, only two deals for around 30,000-50,000 mt of ex-Malaysia HRC are reported to have been done to Italy at the end of last week at around $555/mt CFR and $560/mt CFR, which translate to around €476/mt CFR and €480/mt CFR, respectively.