The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its October Short Range Outlook, forecasting that global steel demand will remain essentially unchanged at 1.722 billion mt in 2026 before increasing by 1.7 percent to 1.752 billion mt in 2027. The latest projections compare with the April forecast of 0.3 percent growth in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027.
China remains the main drag on global demand
Worldsteel attributed most of the downward revision to China, where the property downturn has persisted and infrastructure investment has failed to provide the anticipated support, while manufacturing growth has been insufficient to offset weakness in construction.
Chinese steel demand is projected to fall by 2 percent to 780.1 million mt in 2026 and by a further 1 percent to 772.3 million mt in 2027, compared with April expectations of a 1.5 percent decline and subsequent stabilization.
India leads growth as demand outside China strengthens
India remains the fastest-growing major steel market, with demand expected to increase by 7.9 percent to 172.4 million mt in 2026 and by 8 percent to 186.2 million mt in 2027. Infrastructure construction, private real estate, manufacturing and renewable energy investment continue to support consumption.
Globally, demand excluding China is forecast to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026 and accelerate to 4 percent in 2027.
EU recovery postponed, US growth continues
EU apparent steel use is expected to decline by 0.3 percent in 2026 before recovering by 3.1 percent in 2027, as construction improves more slowly than anticipated and automotive activity remains weak. Infrastructure, defense and energy investment should support the subsequent recovery.
US demand is projected to rise by 2 percent to 92.7 million mt in 2026 and by 1.5 percent to 94.1 million mt in 2027, supported by data centers, energy infrastructure and selected manufacturing sectors, while residential construction remains subdued.
Turkey and Southeast Asia maintain expansion
Turkey's steel demand is forecast to grow by 2.9 percent to 40.4 million mt in 2026 and by 3 percent to 41.6 million mt in 2027. Meanwhile, demand across the five ASEAN markets covered by worldsteel is expected to increase by 5.2 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, with Vietnam recording particularly strong growth this year.
Middle East conflict remains a major risk
Steel demand in the Gulf countries is expected to fall by about 11 percent in 2026 as conflict delays projects and financing decisions, before rebounding by 11.3 percent in 2027 under an assumed normalization of security conditions and supply chains. Persistent regional instability, further energy disruptions and rising trade tensions remain risks to the broader recovery.
