According to the Japanese Ministry of Trade (METI), Japanese demand for crude steel in the last quarter of 2025 is expected to total 20.23 million mt, up 1.2 percent from the previous quarter and decreasing by 2.4 percent compared to the same quarter of 2024.
Total demand for Japanese steel, including exports, is expected to reach 18.47 million mt in the fourth quarter, up 0.4 percent from the estimated data for the previous quarter and down 3.5 percent compared to the same quarter of 2024. Of the estimated fourth quarter demand, exports are expected to account for 6.20 million mt, decreasing by 0.6 percent from the third quarter and down 6.1 percent on year-on-year basis.
Meanwhile, of the total demand in the October-December period, 14.72 million mt is expected to be for ordinary steel, decreasing by 3.6 percent year on year and up by one percent compared to the previous quarter, while 3.75 million mt of demand is expected to be for special steel, down three percent year on year and decreasing by 1.8 percent from the estimated data for the previous quarter.
According to METI, exports are expected to decrease compared to the same period last year due to the decline in market share of Japanese automakers due to the spread of EVs in China, economic slowdowns in Southeast Asia and Europe, and the continued impact of trade measures against Japan. METI asserts that continued monitoring is required for the impact of the worsening steel supply-demand balance in China on surrounding markets and developments in US tariff policy.
