Tadashi Imai, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) and president of Nippon Steel, has stated that the Japanese steel industry is facing renewed pressure from US tariff policy, which is “blocking steel trade flows” and having a “significant” impact on Japan’s export-heavy steel sector, according to local media reports. Imai warned that the environment surrounding Japan’s steel industry in the next fiscal year (FY 2026-27 starting April 1, 2026) is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the current period and that it will take more time for steel demand to recover.
Demand forecast remains subdued
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has also issued a cautious view for January-March 2026, citing labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to constrain construction activity, while most manufacturing sectors have yet to show a meaningful recovery. METI has forecast total steel demand of 18.6 million mt for the quarter, down 1.6 percent year on year, and crude steel production of 20.05 million mt.
Output seen near multi-decade lows
METI expects crude steel production in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026 to fall by roughly 2.6 million mt from the previous fiscal year, marking a 52-year low. JISF, meanwhile, indicated that next fiscal year’s output could be broadly similar to the current year’s level.
