BREE: Australia’s met coal export volume to rise 11% in 2013

The Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) has revised its estimate for Australia's metallurgical coal exports for 2012 to 145 million mt, up nine percent over 2011. The metallurgical coal exports in 2013 of Australia, the world's largest exporter of metallurgical coal, are forecast to increase by 11 percent to 161 million mt as increased production is expected from BMA-owned mines in Queensland and a number of mines are scheduled to start up in 2013, such as Peabody Energy's Burton mine and at Anglo Coal's Grosvenor underground mines.
 
However, for iron ore and metallurgical coal, BREE forecast that lower prices are expected to offset the growth in export volume and result in lower export earnings for these commodities. "The forecast outlook for 2012-13 is for a substantial increase in the volume of exports for Australia's bulk commodities (iron ore and coal) relative to 2011-12. However, as a result of a decline in the US dollar price of iron ore and coal from their levels in early 2012, the total value of these exports is expected to decrease," said Professor Quentin Grafton, BREE's executive director and chief economist.
 
According to BREE, China's metallurgical coal imports are forecast to increase by 28 percent to 49 million mt in 2012. In 2013, China's imports are forecast to increase by a further 19 percent to total 58 million mt. India is forecast to be the other major contributor to higher world metallurgical coal import demand in 2012. India's imports are forecast to increase by 16 percent in both 2012 and 2013 and to total 26 million mt in 2013. On the other hand, imports by the EU are forecast to remain unchanged in 2012 and 2013, compared with 2011, at around 46 million mt. The limited growth in 2012 and 2013 is consistent with the unchanged steel production forecast for the EU in these years.