During his presentation at the SteelOrbis Fall 2026 Conference & 95th IREPAS Meeting being held in Belgrade on September 27-29, Branko Zecevic, president of Serbia-based steelmaker Metalfer Group, focused on the rising protectionism that is structurally changing the global steel trade, requiring producers to focus increasingly on their domestic and nearby markets. In the presentation titled “The Tide Has Turned”, Mr. Zecevic stated that three decades of trade liberalization had encouraged the development of subsidized steelmaking capacity geared towards exports, while higher-cost producers in mature markets lost market shares to cheaper imports.
Global excess steel capacity was estimated at 640 million mt in 2025 and is expected to reach 745 million mt by 2028. Against this backdrop, Mr. Zecevic pointed to the proliferation of trade barriers worldwide, including the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs in the US, tighter EU import quotas and the 50 percent out-of-quota duty, alongside the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. India, Turkey, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, Egypt, Mexico, Vietnam and the UK were also cited among countries introducing or maintaining measures to protect their domestic steel industries. Regarding China, he put the country's steel exports at 119.2 million mt in 2025; however, he cited an OECD figure of 190 million mt for the same year.
Balkan steelmakers face pressure from lower-priced imports
Focusing on the Balkan steel industry outside the EU and excluding Turkey, Zecevic stated that small and fragmented domestic markets combined with limited import protection had exposed local mills to lower-priced imports. This contributed to increasing import penetration and the closure or idling of several mills in the region.
Zecevic identified steel plants in Split, Croatia, and Nikšić, Montenegro, as having been closed, while the Zenica steelworks in Bosnia and Herzegovina closed in 2026. Albania's Elbasan mill was described as temporarily idle, with its future uncertain. He highlighted Metalfer in Serbia and Dojran in North Macedonia as newer mills that remain operational.
According to Zecevic, the 130-year-old Zenica steelworks stopped integrated production on April 23, 2026, and subsequently entered bankruptcy proceedings. He stated that cheaper imported steel and insufficient protection of domestic production had been cited among the reasons for the plant's difficulties, while the shutdown also affected related coke, iron ore and other operations.
Serbia's steel import share declines following introduction of quotas
Serbia introduced import quotas for flat steel, rebar and wire rod on January 1, 2026, with a 50 percent duty applied to imports exceeding the quotas. Metalfer's data showed that domestic mills' share of apparent consumption increased from 37.3 percent in 2025 to 56.1 percent in January-July 2026 for rebar in bars, from 61.5 percent to 71.4 percent for wire rod and from 23.3 percent to 43.0 percent for rebar in coils. The overall import share declined from 56 percent to 40 percent comparing the same periods.
Zecevic described Metalfer's Serbian operations as an example of a mill developed primarily to serve domestic demand. He stated that the company started rolling operations in 2008, commissioned its meltshop in 2010 and added a new rolling mill in 2021. Its annual production capacity stands at 600,000 mt, compared with Serbian domestic demand of approximately 550,000-560,000 mt.
According to Zecevic, freight costs make proximity particularly important for long steel products such as rebar and wire rod. A mill's primary market is estimated at a radius of approximately 300 km, with a secondary market extending to around 500 km. Flat steel and specialty products, by contrast, can economically reach more distant markets.
Zecevic stated that producers should therefore capitalize on proximity to customers, reliable supply and shorter lead times, while viewing exports as opportunities in specific markets or product niches rather than as the foundation of their business models. He concluded that international steel trade will continue despite growing protectionism, but under different conditions, with producers increasingly required to build their strategies around securing their local markets.
