The Italian seamless tubes market is losing some of its brilliance - nothing catastrophic, of course, but sufficient to catch the eye, especially after many months of very strong trends. According to those involved in the market, there has been a definite slowdown, even though it is not so easy to determine the extent and future duration of this phenomenon. The overall situation may still be described as "good" but it is not now possible to talk of an exceptionally good market, exception being made for products which are riding high on the back of the strong performance in the petrol and energy sectors.
There is unanimity in the Italian seamless tubes sector regarding the main sectoral indicator, i.e. the producers' order books. In recent months there has been a falling off in the numbers of orders being placed, to an degree not seen for a long time. There are still plenty of orders, but the times required for delivery are now down to three or four months, which in some cases is half the waiting time which was observed during the corresponding period last year.
Another noteworthy factor is the acceleration seen in seamless tube imports from China, which are increasing both in terms of quantity and quality. The cause of this increased influx from China is the great competitiveness of the Chinese prices, though these could be affected by the measures introduced by the Chinese government to limit exports. There are two views of the future situation in the Italian seamless tubes market. Acccording to one view, the customs duty of 10 percent will discourage acquisitions of Chinese material, while the second view considers that this minor measure will not be sufficient to harm Chinese competitiveness. Meanwhile, the current general impression in the market is confirmed by the situation at the Italian ports, where huge quantities of steel imports are being registered while the waiting periods for unloading and delivery have been greatly extended.
The very positive trend in the Italian market for cold drawn seamless tubes is beyond all doubt, due to the strong demand in the petrol and energy sectors. There is strong demand coming from the Arab countries, Russia and Ukraine. Demand from North Africa is also good while Europe is more static. API tubes are also going very well, while mechanical tubes are setting the pace.
On the horizon, however, hovers the question of what will happen when new tube producing facilities (especially in China) enter production following the huge investments which world producers have made. Added to this is the possibility of a further drop in demand. The fact remains that in the coming months and years these two factors will have to be taken into account. Meanwhile, for the shorter term, we will just have to wait and see what happens in September.