Following a mixed flat steel assessment seven days earlier, US flat steel prices turned higher this week, as a result of solid supply and demand fundamentals now heightened by the on-going Middle East conflict, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
With the US-Israel-Iran war now in its 14th day (March 13), insiders told SteelOrbis most fundamentals remain supportive for flat steel pricing. Insiders told SteelOrbis rising freight and insurance costs -as the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s western flank remains effectively closed- could further reduce the movement of global flat steel, potentially increasing demand on US domestic steel producers, many of which already are stretched thin as flat imports remain slashed as a result of ongoing 50 percent Section 232 steel tariffs. Current lead times for new HRC production are estimated on average at 6-10 weeks, up from 3-5 weeks earlier in the year.
In the weekly hot-rolled coil markets, prices continued higher above the “psychological $1,000/nt ($1,102/mt) mark,” with most trades noted on average $9/nt higher on a FOB mill basis at $1,010/nt ($1,113/mt), or $50.50/nt, up from $1,001/nt ($1,103/mt), or 50.05/cwt., seven days earlier.
At current, SteelOrbis data shows spot HRC prices up nearly 11 percent from the beginning of 2026, though pricing on a yearly basis has soared more than 44 percent on an FOB mill basis from on average $700/nt ($772/mt), or $35.00/cwt.
And while recent sideways settles for March ferrous scrap -the first time in three months- could signal recent flat steel price gains might be more limited or potentially approaching a peak, an all-out price slump remains highly unlikely, especially now that worldwide shipping is being affected by the war.
HRC March steel futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) traded March 10 as high as $1,018/nt ($1,212/mt) or $50.90/ctw., though pricing for March and April were headed lower at press time.
“Freight rates are skyrocketing for exports,” said one US long steel and scrap insider. “As a result of the war, freight moving from the US to Asia is up by $30/ton.”
Another US East Coast exporter explained, “Due to the war there is no marine insurance, and freight has increased by $500 per container so it’s all sidelined for the Indian market. We’re also hearing that there is no Middle East service, and some other carriers are hesitant to go to Pakistan.”
And, despite promises by the US Trump administration that US agencies would re-insure vessels traveling though the Strait, many ships remain at anchor while hostilities against shipping by Iran -however limited- continue. Trump also has hinted that the US Navy as well as other NATO-member naval fleets, namely France, may escort vessels through the 30-mile shipping choke point soon.
On the domestic demand side, continued strength in US ferrous scrap pricing along with a growing positive sentiment for US manufacturing and construction sector growth in Q2 2026, also remains supportive, some insiders said. Many expect US President Trump’s new appointment for the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, will be more likely to slash interest rates, some say are stunting growth across the US economy. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh in January as Powell’s replacement, and if confirmed by the Senate, will assume a four-year post in May.
In the cold-rolled markets, spot CRC traded on average $14/nt higher on the week at $1,150/nt ($1,268/mt), or $57.50/cwt., on an FOB mill basis, up from $1,136/nt ($1,152/mt), or $56.80/cwt., seven days ago. Spot HDG pricing continued to post gains, rising another $10/nt to finish at $1,125/nt ($1,240/mt) or $56.25/cwt., delivered, up from $1,115/nt ($1,229/mt), or $55.80/cwt., one week ago.
Based on a higher HRC spot price assessment and rising CRC values, the weekly spread between the two key steel grades rose to $140/nt, or $7.00/cwt., up from $134/nt, or $6.70/cwt., a week ago.
Recent moves by the US Supreme Court to nullify Trump’s so-called “blanket tariffs” will not affect Section 232 steel tariffs, though there remains talk that they could be reduced or replaced with other tariffs soon, insiders said.
On the domestic mill pricing side, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for flat-rolled coils for an eighth time in 11 weeks by another $5/nt to $1,010/nt ($1,113/mt), or $50.50/cwt., FOB mill, up from $1,005/nt ($1,108/mt), or 50.25/cwt., one week ago. Since the end of October, when CSP prices started their recent advance following an eight-week period of stability at $875/nt, the Nucor CSP has increased more than 15 percent. Nucor‘s California Steel Industries (CSI) price rose an equivalent $5/nt on the week to $1,060/nt ($1,168/mt), or $53.00/cwt., FOB mill, up from $1,055/nt ($1,163/mt) or $52.75/cwt., seven days earlier.
On steel the raw materials side, March US Ohio Valley prime bushing scrap settled sideways following its $30/gt higher February settlement at $445-452/gt ($452-462/mt) on an FOB mill basis, while March shredded material finished at $445-450/gt ($452-456/mt). In the cut grades, a sideways P&S scrap settled at $421-431/gt ($427-437/mt), while March HMS, which also rose $20/gt in February settled at $385-405/gt ($390-410/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis. And, although a solid April scrap forecast remains problematic while hostilities continue unabated in the Middle East, US scrap insiders discussed the market steady to potentially 10-20/gt less as supply at collection facilities is expected to improve, and demand from US mills slips a bit as US mills begin spring maintenance operations.