US flat steel prices across SteelOrbis surveyed product grades continued higher this week amid claims that many US steel mills were “sold out” on a spot supply basis, even as weekly demand was said to be moderating as a result of more limited trading during the “less busy summer months” and as weekly raw steel output continued marginally lower, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Prices continued to rise as US steel maker productive capacity declined on a weekly basis, falling to 79.3 percent of capacity for the week ended July 18, off from the prior week's 79.7 percent of capacity level, though still up 3.3 percent from the same period one year earlier, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute. Recent highs for US steel productive capacity stood at 80.4 percent at the beginning of July, though they remain off from an earlier yearly high of 82.2 percent recorded in May. And while down from the May high, year-to-date combined raw steel production remains nearly 6 percent higher than reported during the same period in 2025.
“There is no spot market supply available right now because most mills are sold out,” said one concerned US Midwest flat steel market insider commenting on this week's weekly spot market action. “It's a supply-driven market for flat steel right now,” said still another another US Gulf Coast insider, continuing to voice weekly supply concerns. “If you have steel to sell, you can basically sell it at any price.”
In the hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly price average stands at $1,170/nt ($1,290/mt), or $58.50/cwt., up $10/nt from last week's paltry $2/nt gain to $1,160/nt ($1,279/mt), or $58/cwt. HRC futures prices on CME's Globex electronic futures exchange for July delivery settled at $1,156/nt, while August HRC futures traded $3/nt higher July 24 at $1,191/nt.
And while an examination of SteelOrbis historical data shows that flat steel prices continue to advance toward levels unseen since April 2023 amid continued reports of growing domestic demand, high operating capacity rates combined with tight imports and limited domestic supply availability from domestic mills, as flat steel prices have continued weekly advances, insiders report that US mills were becoming increasingly hesitant to continue to raise prices for fear that increased amount of imports will flow into the US from abroad, and compete with domestic producers.
This week, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor announced that it's CSP -the posted base price it charges for hot-rolled coils (HRC) across all of its regional mills- would remain stable for a second week at $1,135/nt ($1,251/mt), or $56.75/cwt. Nucor's California Steel Industries (CSI) base price also was steady at $1,185/nt ($1,306/mt), or $59.25/cwt, the mill said in its weekly letter to customers. Prior to recent stability in Nucor's spot price offers, the weekly CSP price had increased 23 straight weeks, for a combined gain of nearly 19 percent. Market surveys indicate it remains unclear whether Nucor is selling spot HRC at its CSP price, as spot pricing currently remains $35/nt higher than Nucor's latest weekly offer. Despite recent stability for the CSP and CSI posted prices, the weekly monitors remain up nearly 20 percent since early January.
In the cold-rolled markets (CRC), market sources indicate average spot prices on a delivered FOB mill basis gained another $10/nt on the week to finish at $1,385/nt ($1,527/mt), or $69.25/cwt., up from last week's $15/nt gain to $1,375/nt ($1,515/mt), or $68.75/cwt.
Based on a $10/nt rise in weekly HRC values and another $10/nt increase in CRC average spot prices, the current spread between the two key steel grades increased $13/nt to $215/nt, or $10.75/cwt., off from last week's $202/nt spread at $10.10/cwt. Data shows the HRC/CRC price spread has once again matched it's recent high of $215/nt or $10.75/cwt., achieved four weeks earlier.
In the HDG spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly average price rose an additional $5/nt to finish the week at $1,380/nt ($1,521/mt), or $69/cwt., up from the prior week's $12/nt advance to on average $1,375/nt ($1,516/mt), or $68.75/cwt.
