US flat steel prices continued to advance to levels unseen since April 2023 this week amid reports of steady domestic demand and continued reports of tight spot availability from domestic mills, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
And while flat steel pricing continued toward historic highs, insiders report that US mills could be growing increasingly reluctant to continue to raise spot price offers for fear that imports could surge and once again regain much of the domestic market share lost by importers when Section 232 tariffs were doubled to 50 percent in June 2025, dashing the competitive economics often realized by importers of global flat steel products.
“I think prices will be leveling off now,” reported one SteelOrbis flat steel market insider. “US mills are super busy, but they don’t want to keep increasing prices.”
Weekly US productive steel mill capacity averaged 80.4 percent this week, up from the 78.9 percent mark realized during the same week one year ago, data from the American Iron and Steel Institute shows.
SteelOrbis weekly pricing surveys find average spot hot-rolled coil (HRC) pricing on an FOB Midwest mill basis continued $20/nt higher this week, following last week’s $8/nt advance to $1,158/nt ($1,276/mt), or $57.90/cwt, up from $1,138/nt ($1,254/mt), or $56.90/cwt., seven days earlier.
Even as spot market continue to post gains, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor’s CSP -the posted base price it charges for hot-rolled coils (HRC) across all of its regional mills- was reported steady again this week at $1,130/nt ($1,246/mt) or $56.50/cwt., delivered. Nucor’s California Steel Industries (CSI) base price, also was steady at $1,180/nt ($1,301/mt), or $59.00/cwt., on an FOB mill basis.
And while some market insiders continue to call for a pause in recent flat steel price increases, HRC futures pricing continues to show a bullish pattern, with Q3 futures pricing averaging on the New York Mercantile Exchange July 10 at $1,166/nt ($1,258/mt), or $58.30/cwt., up $2/nt from last week’s $1,164/nt ($1,283/mt), or $58.20/cwt., quarterly average.
And, as domestic flat steel spot prices continued to rise, preliminary census data from the US Commerce Department reveals that importers are taking action, as carbon and alloy hot-rolled sheet imports rose about 128.5 percent in May following a 54 percent slump to the lowest levels in 28 years during April. Overall, steel imports across all product categories showed an 11.1 percent increase in May, government data shows.
While most flat steel imports are starting to show substantial monthly gains, on a yearly basis though, April import data shows imports of HRC imports at a nearly 59 percent deficit, while cold rolled coil imports were off nearly 38 percent for the first four months of 2026 compared with the equivalent period one year prior. In the coated steel markets, US imports of hot-dipped galvanized sheet and strip products (HDG) were off nearly 37 percent compared with one year ago. Overall, finished flat steel imports are off on average nearly 27 percent versus the equivalent period in 2025.
In the weekly cold rolled steel spot markets, traders report CRC prices on a delivered FOB mill basis gained $11/nt to $1,360/nt ($1,499/mt), or $68/cwt., up from last week’s $4/nt increase to $1,349/nt, ($1,487/mt), or $67.45/cwt.
Based on a $20/nt rise in weekly HRC values and another $11/nt increase in CRC average spot prices, the current spread between the two key steel grades fell another $9/nt on the week to $202/nt, or $10.10/cwt., off from $211/nt or $10.55/cwt., a week ago. The spread has been falling since reaching a recent high of $215/nt or $10.75/cwt., three weeks earlier.
In the HDG spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly average price rose an additional $10/nt to $1,363/nt ($1,503/mt), or $68.10/cwt., on an FOB mill basis, up from last week’s $13/nt weekly rise to on average $1,353/nt ($1,491/mt), or $67.65/cwt.
