US flat steel prices continued their ascent this week fueled by a combination of a strong March US scrap outlook, and the likelihood that import tariffs on Canada and Mexico will start on Tuesday, March 4, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
In weekly flat steel spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly spot average for hot rolled coils (HRC) continued to advance, closing the week at an average $860/nt ($948/mt), or $43.00/cwt., up from the prior week’s more than 13 percent boost to $850/nt ($937/mt) delivered to customer. Like this past week, most market insiders told SteelOrbis that HRC pricing could continue to slowly advance until more clarity on tariffs and potential exemptions for different steel products is provided by the Trump administration.
This week, US President Trump indicated that threatened 25 percent import tariffs on Mexico and Canada -which had been delayed for 30 days after the two largest US trading partners took steps to curb illegal immigration and the movement of deadly fentanyl into the US- would go into effect on March 4 as earlier planned. On March 12, section 232 tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum into the US will go into effect without exemption, while April 2 could see reciprocal tariffs placed on all existing levies against the US, Trump said.
“It’s all tariffs and scrap related, and of course pure greed,” said one Midwest scrap market insider about recent price increases in domestic flat steel. “We’ve basically seen no big demand uptick as it has remained pretty stable, however, with Canada and Mexico being out of the import picture, it has given strength to the market for finished product.”
In other flat steel markets, CRC is assessed on average $1,050/nt ($1,157/mt), or $52.50/cwt., up from earlier assessments at $975/nt ($1,075/mt), or $48.75/cwt., delivered to customer one week earlier. At present, the current key trading spread between HRC and CRC increased to $9.50/cwt., or $190/nt ($209/mt), up from a recent low of $6.25/cwt., or $125/nt ($138/mt) seven days ago.
Following on previous price increases, spot HDG also continued higher, advancing to an average $1,020/nt ($1,124/mt) or $51.00/cwt., up from $1,000/nt ($1,102/mt), or $50.00/cwt., a week earlier.
On the mill side, this week, steel maker Nucor continued to increase its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot-rolled coils for a fifth straight week, after an earlier period of 11 straight weeks of flat pricing. The CSP rose by another $40/nt ($44/mt), or $2.00/cwt., to $860/nt ($948/mt), following its $30/nt ($33/mt) increase the week prior to $820/nt ($904/mt) FOB mill. Nucor’s largest competitor, Cleveland, Ohio-based Cleveland-Cliffs increased its April HR price to $900/nt ($992/mt) or $45.00/cwt.
“I see prices staying in the $800-$900/nt ($882-992/mt or $40.00-45.00/cwt.) range in the near term,” remarked one mill-based steel market insider. “Any higher and imports will start to come in even with tariffs. I see scrap prices increasing in March and then plateauing or maybe even moving lower in April. There will be plenty of scrap available soon.”
Based on recent domestic mill price increases for HRC, it appears that imports already are getting more profitable, depending on buyer transportation costs from the US Gulf.
Contacts tell SteelOrbis with the rapid price rise seen in the US domestic market, some overseas suppliers have been evaluating opportunities to reactivate negotiations with American buyers, particularly the producers from Turkey and North Africa. This week, the overseas suppliers who have an importer of record in the US, having no additional duties except for Section 232 related tariffs at 25 percent, offered HRC to the US at $550/mt FOB base for April shipments. As per the levels, delivered to the US and including the additional trans-shipment costs, offers have been standing this week at $782/mt ($709/nt) CFR or $35.75/cwt.
Looking forward, the continuous HRC steel futures contract is at its highest level since March 2024, trading $7.00/nt ($7.72/mt) higher at $912/nt ($1,005/mt). Over the past three months, HRC futures have risen 32.17 percent while year-to-date, HRC futures are up 28.45 percent, SteelOrbis data shows.