US flat steel pricing continued higher this week, driven by steady but limited local flat steel demand, continued cuts to US flat steel imports, and a steady to higher scrap pricing expectation for January, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
While reports of available spot pricing transactions remained scant ahead of next week’s Christmas holiday, flat insiders said flat prices likely will remain supported mostly by solid scrap expectations for the January buy-cycle. Mill scrap buyers told SteelOrbis they expect pricing to be sideways to recent $10-20/gt higher December settles, while scrap suppliers see January scrap a minimum $20-40/gt higher.
“Right now, the US mills seem to be very tight as far as availability,” remarked one US Gulf Coast flat steel insider to SteelOrbis. “Demand has slowed down because we are at the end of the year, however, [demand] has been consistent throughout the month,” he said. “Mill lead times for new production are extending out into March, and we are starting to see seen some limited offers for spot supply tons at as high as $48.00/cwt. ($960/nt or $1,058/mt).
While no spot pricing confirmations at those lofty price levels were available, the weekly SteelOrbis HRC spot price average still finished the week up another $10/nt to on average $910/nt ($1,003/mt), or $45.50/cwt., up from $900/nt ($992/mt), or $45.00/cwt., seven days earlier.
“I heard plus $20/gt to plus $40/gt from two mills, but it remains pretty early to tell where the January scrap market will settle out,” said another scrap market insider. “Demand seems to be slowing as a result of seasonality.”
This week, even as seasonal trade remained scant, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for flat-rolled coils by another $10/nt to $940/nt ($1,036/mt) or $47.00/cwt, up from $930/nt ($1,025/mt), or $46.50/cwt., one week earlier. Since Sept. 24, the Nucor CSP has increased nearly 18 percent after bottoming at $800/nt ($882/mt), or $40.00/cwt.
On the flat steel supply side, market insiders said reduced imports have US mills operating at higher capacities. As previously reported by SteelOrbis, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported that during October 2025, US steel mills shipped 7,692,319 net tons, a 9.2 percent increase from the 7,047,172 net tons shipped in October 2024, well before recent Section 232 steel tariffs went into play. Month on month shipments, however, were down 4.2 percent from the 8,032,536 net tons shipped in the previous month, September.
Recent flat steel import data remains extremely supportive for US flat steel market pricing, insiders continue to say. SteelOrbis data sourced from the State Statistics Institute finds that as of Aug. 2025, imports of hot rolled coils from Canada alone, totaled 42,992 metric tons (mt), off 48.4 percent from the 83,250 mt imported during the equivalent month in 2024. For Mexico, US imports of hot rolled coils fell 52.1 percent from the 7,377 mt reported for August 2024 to 3,535 mt registered for the equivalent August 2025 period. At current, imports remain off sharply from year-ago levels as a result of renewed Section 232 steel tariffs that were doubled to 50 percent on June 4 by US President Trump. While there has been talk, no significant actions have been noted recently between the US, Canada, and Mexico, though recent media reports indicate Trump may be inclined to let the current USMCA trade agreement expire in June 2026 if no actions are taken by then to renegotiate current steel tariffs between the three North American trade partners.
In the cold rolled markets, weekly prices were reported flat on the week following the prior week’s $40/ton increase to finish the week steady at $1,090/nt ($1,202/mt), or $54.50/cwt., up from $1,050/nt, ($1,157/mt), or $52.50/nt two weeks earlier. Given another $10/nt increase in HRC average pricing and current weekly flat CRC pricing estimates, the current spread between HRC and CRC steel grades stands at $180/nt ($198/mt), or $9.00/cwt., down from $190/nt ($209/mt), or $9.50/cwt., one week earlier.
In the coated steel markets, the SteelOrbis hot-dipped galvanized base supply price without extras is estimated at $1,010/nt ($1,113/mt), or $50.50/cwt., up $35/nt from $975/nt ($1,074/mt), or $48.75/cwt., a week ago.
In US pipe markets, despite further increases in weekly flat steel pricing, standard ERW X-52 pipe prices are last reported flat at $64.75-$66.00/cwt., ($1,295-1,320/nt or $1,428-1,455/mt), following earlier $20/nt ($22/mt) increases reported as a result of earlier flat steel weekly pricing gains.