Weekly flat steel prices were steady to higher again this week on the heels of recent cold weather, which has caused scrap prices to continue higher now for a third straight month, even as steel imports remain limited, markets insiders told SteelOrbis.
The combination of reduced finished steel imports as a result of renewed 50 percent Section 232 steel tariffs earlier this year, steadily rising US steel plant capacity utilization rates, along with steadily rising scrap pricing which continues to boost mills’ steel production costs, continue to be cited as the key reasons for continued support in flat steel markets, insider said.
The weekly SteelOrbis HRC spot price average price closed the week up another $12/nt to on average $972/nt ($1,071/mt), or $48.60/cwt., up from $960/nt ($1,058/mt), or $48.00/cwt., following last week’s $10/nt increase. Since the first week of January, when SteelOrbis HRC pricing averaged $910/nt or $45.50/cwt., pricing is up nearly 7 percent, while one year SteelOrbis data comparisons show HRC spot prices have climbed nearly 39 percent from on average $700/nt ($772/mt), or $35.00/cwt.
With mills’ steel productions costs continuing to gain momentum at a time when replacement import materials remains limited, insiders said the upward pricing trend is likely to continue, especially if finished steel demand from depressed US manufacturing sector begins to improve as many predict by mid-2026.
“The US scrap market for February seems to be coming together at plus $30/gt across the board,” said one US Midwest scrap insider to SteelOrbis. “With the recent cold, scrap collection has been lower and it points to up again this month, anywhere from $20/gt to as high as $40/gt,” said another US Gulf Coast scrap trader.
Based on a $30/gt expected increase at settlement for US Midwest HMS I/II and shredded scrap used in HRC production, February HMS scrap is likely to settle at $395-415/gt ($401-422/nt), while shredded is likely to finish near $445-450/gt ($452-457/nt). Midwest prime busheling scrap is quoted $30/gt higher as well at on average $445-455/gt ($452-462/mt). By comparison, as winter weather began earlier this year in many parts of the US Midwest and Northeast, scrap ricing has continued to increase steadily each month since December, with HMS grades up 17.4 percent, while shredded grades saw a 15.5 percent rise, SteelOrbis data shows.
And although recent cold weather and snow is expected to moderate following another weekend Arctic blast across the US Northeast, major scrap deliveries remain backlogged, which could contribute to higher premiums paid for those able to deliver prompt scrap. Some scrap suppliers report moving road salt with their trucks versus normal scrap deliveries because of recent higher prices paid as foul weather continued.
Metals transportation remains problematic, insiders said, and according to AccuWeather Great Lakes Expert Brandon Buckingham, Lake Erie’s near-total freeze this winter has been driven by repeated shots of cold air and sustained below-average temperatures. An expected 100 percent freeze was expected across the lake this weekend, the first such instance on record since shipping was halted in February of 1996. Other instances of this rare occurrence were noted in 1978-1979. While a full lake freeze is disruptive to shipping, the effect of solid ice on the lake is to reduce the amount of lake effect snowfall, meaning alternative transport across regional roadways could be improved.
"From mid-January through early February, temperatures have consistently been 10-25 degrees below historical averages, aiding in a rapid expansion of ice coverage," Buckingham explained.
On the Ohio River, while river icing blockages have subsided with operations having resumed Feb. 3, scrap and steel component deliveries on the all-important waterway have been delayed by as much as 3 full days, river watchers said, as a backlog or barges is cleared through key locks at Willow Island facility, near Marrietta, Ohio.
In the cold rolled markets, current spot pricing is assessed flat from week-ago levels in thin trade at $1,100/nt ($1,213/mt) or $55.00/cwt. Insiders told SteelOrbis the combination of rising steel production costs as a result of continued strength in local scrap markets with limited levels of steel imports continues to prompt US mills to increase weekly production levels to keep up with local demand.
Based on a $12/nt increase for HRC pricing and a flat CRC weekly assessment, the current spread between the two key steel grades continues to decline, with this week posting a low of $128/nt, or $6.40/cwt., off from $140/nt, or $7.00/cwt., seven days earlier.
In the coated steel markets, the SteelOrbis hot-dipped galvanized base supply prices are assessed steady for a second straight week on average $1,060/nt ($1,168/,mt), or $53.00/cwt., following a previous $20/nt increase from $1,040/nt ($1,146/mt), or $52.00/cwt., levels three weeks before.
This week, even as spot flat steel trade remained limited as market participants digested an expected $30/gt increase across all scrap grades, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for flat-rolled coils for a third time in five weeks by another $5/nt to $970/nt ($1,069/mt) or $48.50/cwt., up from $965/nt ($1,064/mt), or $48.25/cwt., a week earlier. Since the end of October, when CSP prices started their recent advance following an eight-week period of stability at $875/nt, the Nucor CSP has increased by nearly 11 percent.